Firstly, some new posts to get stuck into…(can also be found by clicking ‘blog’ above, newest posts at the top. To find/scroll through old posts, you can click the ‘blog’ category at the bottom, or click on a month in the ‘archives’.)
Two trainers to go to war with this month…
I have reviewed Febs results and updated the Tips for 2016 to end of Feb…
(post includes links to a full spreadsheet/PDF of all the tips, recorded to advised prices and BFSP)
TIPS: Another +25 points last month, taking the 2016 total to +113.875 points until the end of Feb. Or, +£2277.5 to £20 stakes.
We suffered a -18 point run in the latter 3rd of the month and I explore that in the post along with a few other thoughts. I do need to breakdown the systems by category as well.
TRENDS: Due to moving this week I am a bit behind with certain things, including Saturday’s Big Race Trends which I usually like to get up on a Wednesday, to give you stats buffs plenty of time to apply them etc. These will be up on Friday at some point.
TOP WOOD…I won’t repeat my language as he romped to victory. An eye-catcher three starts ago he went unbacked here. I wont indulge in a pity party of why he went unbacked (no internet/time/didnt look at race) and I have no idea if I looked at the race in any depth whether I would have backed him. But, that stroll was no surprise. it is worth a quick re-cap on his last few runs, to help for the future. He went into the notebook at Chepstow, his first run of the season,having travelled well for a long way, looking like the winner for most of the home straight. One of the horses to chase him came second in the Welsh National. He was a big field c2 handicap hurdler, so clearly had some class. He then ran at Taunton, tipped on here, where he looked to go off far too quickly and suffered burnout. A reader and I got into a discussion on here about whether he actually just chucked the towel in. He is a character- that was built into today’s price. The last race was over too short a distance, he was held up and had new headgear on. He was outpaced and never ran his race. A repeat of that Chepstow run was always going to ensure he went close in this race and back with a jockey who clearly gets on with him. He just outclassed them. So, annoying, but that happens. It is easy after they have romped home to state the obvious, and I really don’t know what I would have done if I had spent any time at all looking at the race. But, winning like that was no shock. Moving on quickly (for the second time this week! 🙂 )
Jumps cards at Newbury and Donny – not a single 3m+ handicap chase amongst them surprisingly. So, no tips in what has been a quiet week to date.
2.50 Newb- Cool Charmer (12/1<) UP
2.10 Donc – Tekthelot (12/1<) UP
4.30 Newb – Danzinski (14/1<) UP/ Fin Despere (20/<) 2nd 14/1>12/1
Apols, missed these two… (updated at 10.03)
Pam Sly Females: 4.20 Donny – Taweyla (14/1<) WON 2/1 (after r4, was 5/2)
Tom George Chasers: 3.25 Newb – Noche De Reyes UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
This section of the daily posts is in test really. These are not tips, more some stats of interest that may or may not help with any of your own analysis. I never look at the horse in too much depth (unless a pace/profile angle) and I never really look at the opposition. They are pointers – the stats are the stats- for you to use/ignore as you please.
4.55 Donny – NR – Nicky Richards is 9/18, 9 places with his handicap hurdle debutants in last 2 years, 1/2 at the track. Baysbrown goes for him here, around 10/1.
6.30 Dundalk – Trainer/Jockey are 5/14, 10 places when teaming up in all races here in last 5 years. They run Poetic Choice here, around 9/1.
8.00 Dundalk – Trainer/Jockey are 4/11, 5 places with all runners here in last 5 years. They run Political Policy here, around 13/2.
Good Luck with all your bets today. My flat is still without internet. I am camping out in a nice cafe for a second day!