Members Report 04/04/16 (COMPLETE+ 2x late system updates)

Firstly, some new posts to get stuck into…(can also be found by clicking ‘blog’ above, newest posts at the top. To find/scroll through old posts, you can click the ‘blog’ category at the bottom, or click on a month in the ‘archives’.)

Two trainers to go to war with this month…


I have reviewed Febs results and updated the Tips for 2016 to end of Feb…


(post includes links to a full spreadsheet/PDF of all the tips, recorded to advised prices and BFSP) 

TIPS: Another +25 points last month, taking the 2016 total to +113.875 points until the end of Feb. Or, +£2277.5 to  £20 stakes.

We suffered a -18 point run in the latter 3rd of the month and I explore that in the post along with a few other thoughts. I do need to breakdown the systems by category as well. 

TRENDS: Due to moving this week I am a bit behind with certain things, including Saturday’s Big Race Trends which I usually like to get up on a Wednesday, to give you stats buffs plenty of time to apply them etc. These will be up on Friday at some point. 


TOP WOOD…I won’t repeat my language as he romped to victory. An eye-catcher three starts ago he went unbacked here. I wont indulge in a pity party of why he went unbacked (no internet/time/didnt look at race) and I have no idea if I looked at the race in any depth whether I would have backed him. But, that stroll was no surprise. it is worth a quick re-cap on his last few runs, to help for the future. He went into the notebook at Chepstow, his first run of the season,having travelled well for a long way, looking like the winner for most of the home straight. One of the horses to chase him came second in the Welsh National. He was a big field c2 handicap hurdler, so clearly had some class. He then ran at Taunton, tipped on here, where he looked to go off far too quickly and suffered burnout. A reader and I got into a discussion on here about whether he actually just chucked the towel in. He is a character- that was built into today’s price. The last race was over too short a distance, he was held up and had new headgear on. He was outpaced and never ran his race. A repeat of that Chepstow run was always going to ensure he went close in this race and back with a jockey who clearly gets on with him. He just outclassed them. So, annoying, but that happens. It is easy after they have romped home to state the obvious, and I really don’t know what I would have done if I had spent any time at all looking at the race. But, winning like that was no shock. Moving on quickly (for the second time this week! 🙂 ) 



Jumps cards at Newbury and Donny – not a single 3m+ handicap chase amongst them surprisingly. So, no tips in what has been a quiet week to date.  



March Trainers 

2.50 Newb- Cool Charmer (12/1<) UP 

Jumps Handicappers

2.10 Donc – Tekthelot (12/1<) UP

4.30 Newb – Danzinski (14/1<) UP/ Fin Despere (20/<) 2nd 14/1>12/1

Apols, missed these two… (updated at 10.03)


Pam Sly Females: 4.20 Donny – Taweyla (14/1<) WON 2/1 (after r4, was 5/2) 

Tom George Chasers: 3.25 Newb – Noche De Reyes UP


This section of the daily posts is in test really. These are not tips, more some stats of interest that may or may not help with any of your own analysis. I never look at the horse in too much depth (unless a pace/profile angle) and I never really look at the opposition. They are pointers – the stats are the stats- for you to use/ignore as you please. 

4.55 Donny – NR – Nicky Richards is 9/18, 9 places with his handicap hurdle debutants in last 2 years, 1/2 at the track. Baysbrown goes for him here, around 10/1. 

6.30 Dundalk – Trainer/Jockey are 5/14, 10 places when teaming up in all races here in last 5 years. They run Poetic Choice here, around 9/1. 

8.00 Dundalk – Trainer/Jockey are 4/11, 5 places with all runners here in last 5 years. They run Political Policy here, around 13/2. 


Good Luck with all your bets today. My flat is still without internet. I am camping out in a nice cafe for a second day! 


Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 responses

  1. Reference
    Rodney says:
    March 2, 2016 at 6:01 pm

    On the Donald McCain thread I’ve been checking out stats from Josh’s Cheltenham guide for the Kim Muir, Donald has a strike rate of 2/10 -3 places with his runners,this year he has two entered, I think you can discount Corrin Wood which leaves Subtle Grey of interest,ticks all the stat s boxes,high in the RP ratings for the race and still available at 25/1 NRNB.

    My interpretation of Josh’s Guide for the Kim Muir is that you need a horse that has not won in the last 5 races but has been placed at least.
    Subtle Grey is 53 in the list so unlikely to get a run.
    My interest revolves around ‘The Giant Bolster’, ‘Splash of Ginge’ and the two I will back, ‘Buckers Bridge’ and ‘Broadway Buffalo’
    No doubt Josh will put us right!

    1. HI Clavis, I will check my stats and how they come across – but I dont think there are any that highlight any recent winning form as a negative – I could be wrong mind, just from memory! Suspect that is placing at least once in last 5 starts –

      to clarify – ‘PLACES’ DOES include any wins for stats like that – wins always included in Horse Race Base ‘place’ stats, unless otherwise stated. I suspect I have not made that clear, and will do in tomorrow’s blog post!

  2. Thanks for the hard work Josh… Will be at Lingfield today cheering on my Lexington times.. Up against it but he runs well fresh and Hannons are pleased with him and in my opinion not a big outsider the bookies have him at.. But hey ho as long as he runs his race and comes back safe all that matters.

  3. Alan King has 2 of interest at Doncaster. 2.10 Mille Nautique and 3.15 Miss Crick. Both have had recent wind operations and much better is expected. His news page on the website is quite informative regarding the days runners.

    1. King is one of the better trainers in that respect along with PFN, pity more aren’t like them.

      Unfortunately, I fear the snow at Donny will at worst have the meeting off and even if its on, melting snow = a lot of moisture so several in the opening race who looked very interesting may not get the good ground they need…

  4. Think your Mick Halford Micro system from the All Weather Track Profiles highlights his runner in the 7pm race.

    1. It does Steve, I dont highlight those on here, given that they are only accessible to those who bought the guide – wouldnt be fair etc.

  5. Good afternoon josh,hope you are settling in well,backed coole charmer at 11 last night thinking it was great value only to find it 18/1 this morning,fortunatly my bet was with bet365 so I took the 10% hit, 25c in my case and put 2.25 on at the potential profit is now 40.25 as opposed to 27.5,currently 16 best,not many Henderson horses go off without support before the off,its a worthwhile feature in the instance that you can avail of a better price if you really fancy a horses chances say your 10/1 is now 14/1,cut and run if it drifts alarmingly,accumulaters where your bet is well in profit or just when you have had a really good day and want to stop well in front.

  6. I have just watched the 2.40 at Donny and what an example of the importance of having a good jockey on board. James Reveley was stylish and excellent on the winner whereas F Otoole claiming 7 was all over the place when the race got going from 3 out. I am not saying the runner up would have won with another jockey on board but it would have had a chance. I appreciate claimers have to learn but I would say to punters always be happy with your jockey.

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