Saturday Big Race Trends (complete)

A couple of races of interest for me this Saturday…

 

2.15 Newbury: Veterans Handicap Chase

Only 8 previous runnings of this, 78 horses, 23 places. Not a full trends profile but a few pointers…

  • 7/8 Top 5 in market (1/36, 5 places 6th or worse) 
  • 7/8 won over max of 3m2f previously (1/30, 6 places won over further) 
  • 8/8 5 or fewer chase wins in career
  • 8/8 3 or fewer Handicap Chase wins in career (0/17, 3 places had more) 
  • 7/8 Top 3 on at least one of last 3 starts (1/26, 7 places did not) 
  • 8/8 Top 3 on at least one of last 5 starts 
  • 7/8 did not drop in class from last run (1/24, 3 places were)
  • Claiming Jockeys: 0/11, 2 places
  • Those that were 20/1 or bigger SP on last start: 0/21, 2 places (a new stat I had never really looked at before, but will do from now on – for higher class races this may be a decent guide, I don’t know) 
  • Track LTO (of interest)
    • Winc: 3/13, 4 places
    • Sand: 2/7, 2 places
    • 1 wins each: Kempt/Chep/Exet
    • Donc: 0/8, 2 places
    • Wawr: 0/7, 1 place
    • Chelt: 0/6, 2 places
    • Asct: 0/5, 0 places
  • Trainers (of interest)
    • D Pipe: 2/6, 3 places
    • 1 win each: George/Sherwood/V Williams/Hobbs/Nicholls
    • A King: 0/4, 0 places

***

3.45 Doncaster: Grimthorpe Chase

15 renewals since 1997

139 runners, 41 placed horses

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 12/15 Top 4 LTO
    • 12/77 runners…26 places…80% winners…55% runners…63% placed horses
    • PU: 2/18, 3 places
    • 5th or worse but completed: 1/33, 10 places

Horse Age

  • Nothing much of note. Winners all ages 6-11.
    • 12+ : 0/10, 1 place

Days Since Run

  • 12/15 ran 16-60 days ago
    • 12/74 runners…29 places…80% winners…53% runners…71% places
    • 1-15 days: 1/26, 7 places
    • 61+ : 2/39, 5 places

Horse Weight

  • 13/15 carried 10-12 or less on back (inc jockey claims)
    • 13/87, 29 places…87% winners…63% runners…71% places
    • 10-13+ : 2/52, 12 places
    • 11-9+ : 2/19, 5 places

Horse Official Rating

  • 12/15 OR 131 or below
    • 132+: 3/64, 17 places…20% winners…46% runners…41% places

Season Runs

  • Nothing significant.
    • 0-1 run: 0/13, 4 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

  • 4m4f: 0/13, 2 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

  • 3m4f+ (28f+): 0/19, 2 places

Position In Market

  • 12/15 Top 5 in market come the off

Odds

  • 12/15 8/1 or shorter SP (3x big priced winners though)

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 8/42, 14 places
  • IRE: 6/69, 21 places
  • FR: 1/24, 6 places

Weight (excl J-Claim)

  • 10-13-11-8: 0/30, 7 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • 4th – 6th in weights: 0/38, 7 places
    • Could be random: or these horses, as with weight above, are stuck in the middle, without the class of those near the top, or without a really light weight/much in hand of those near the bottom.

 

Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 14/15 had 0-2 handicap chase wins
    • 3: 1/19, 4 places
    • 4+ : 0/15, 1 place

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Five Runs

  • 14/15 has finished in Top 2 on at least one of last 5 starts
    • 1/21, 5 places had not

Distance Move

  • Down 3.5f or more from last run: 0/13, 1 place
  • Up 4f or more: 0/14, 4 places

 

 Horse Last Run Data

(LR) Track

  • Donc: 3/29, 8 places
  • Ascot: 2/4, 3 places
  • 1 win each: NewtonA/Ayr/South/Newb/Warw/Catt/Hayd/Leic/Kelso/Exet
  • Weth: 0/11, 1 place
  • Chelt: 0/10, 1 place

**

Trainers (of interest)

  • No trainer has won this more than once.
  • Hendo: 1/1
  • Hobbs: 1/1
  • Nicholls: 1/12, 3 places
  • Jonjo: 0/4, 1 place
  • Sue Smith: 0/8, 2 places
  • NTD: 0/4, 0 places
  • V Williams: 0/4, 1 place

***

Good Luck. I will be using some of those pointers if ‘tipping’ in these races.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Going at Donny will be soft/heavy. Currently snowing and they’re racing today. This males the weights stat interesting..

    1. indeed, don’t you just hate changeable going, was starting to get my ‘good ground’ eyes in – yet to look at runners but havent been races on heavy to know whether top weights historically should be provided. Will see if those near the top have handled a big weight in the mud before etc. We do like a challenge though!

  2. 10 – 10-13 are 7-7-44 11stone+ are 1-8-29 for the Grimthorpe – there was only 7 runners when 2008 11-9 won it & ground was ‘gd as it has been last 5 runnings.

    11yo’s are 2-2-7 so Ikorodu Road not out of it & he clocked a figure over cd two starts ago bigger than rest of field in their last 6. He’s the only one running below his highest winning mark, is only 1lb higher than when winning this 2012 & my top rated ahead of Band Of Blood & Just A Par

  3. It’s cut up as all the trainers have pulled their good ground horses out. This makes the weight angle less important and I’m going with Drop Out Joe who’s in form and this race is not too far removed from the one he won last time and he’s a 3 mile soft ground winner. With Johnson in such scintillating form the 4/1 looks reasonable although he’s that price all over and I would expect 1/2 a point bigger tomorrow at some stage.

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