RESULTS REVIEW: FEB+2016 to date

This post is a work in progress…

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As is the norm now I have reviewed the results for the last month and updated the results for the tips for 2016. This is so that you have an accurate record which will either give you confidence, or not, moving forwards – especially for the tips. 

RESULTS 

TIPS (2016 to date)

Tips are split into ‘Tips’ and ‘Big Race Previews’. The only difference is that the latter use historical trends/stats (using my ‘checklist’) as a starting point, with the aim of finding a shortlist of contenders. I mainly focus on 3m+ chases over jumps, but on Saturdays I do like the odd big field handicap hurdle also. 

You can find an excel file and PDF copy of results at the two links below. 

February…

31 bets / 7 wins / 13 w|p / 23% win SR / 42% w|p SR / +25.375 points (advised prices) 

43 points staked, 59% Return On Investment 

 

2016 To Date 

64 bets / 17 wins / 27 w|p / 27% win SR / 42% w|p SR / +113.875 points (advised) / +89.92 BFSP (- commission)

84 points staked, 136% Return On Investment. 

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TO NOTE…

A decent start to the year, and that takes the profit for the Tips to around +152 points this jumps season. (I wasnt so detailed with results during Oct/Nov/Dec, albeit every bet is on this blog somewhere!) 

Advised stakes…unlike some (Pricewise??) I record horses to prices that are widely available and try and be as fair as possible. I am always happy to discuss any grievances with recorded advised prices. My guide is to ensure a price is available with at least 2 Best Odds Guaranteed Bookies as listed on OddsChecker.com. A recent example would be Nalim – he was only available with Ladbrookes at 8s, non BOG at the time. If he had won I would have recorded him at 6s – available with 4/5 firms all evening, and until 10.30 in morning – he was backed, before drifting out again. i monitor prices after I post them up and if a price disappears quickly I will record at a price that in general there was no excuse for not getting. Of course, I also record to BFSP as this is a price that everyone can get. When including commission, returns are substantially less than advised prices. However, there will be the odd ‘biggie’ 33/1+ in months/years ahead whereby BFSP may be way above the advised price. But, certainly for those under 20/1 my advice would always be to try and get the best BOG price that you can.

Losing Runs…

Last month I/the Royal WE suffered our most severe losing run for some time. In the latter third of the month this hit -18 points. Now, if you started following the tips at the start of that run, you would probably think I had never bet on a horse race before in my life. Give the nature of my approach and the odds I play at, losing runs like that are inevitable. If you cant handle them, don’t prepare for them, or have a sufficient bank – then you shouldn’t back my tips. And, there will be worse losing runs than that, I will hit a -25 pointer at some point, maybe -30 points. It will happen, and I never hide that. I deal in profit and so far, so good.

Loyal and long standing followers have plenty in the bank to sustain such runs, and in time, if you are new, you will too. I would/have advised a bank of around 80 points for my tips, I think that should be fine. You should be prepared to lose all of those points. At £5 per point that is £400. Only by being prepared/happy/able to lose that amount can you ride out the losing runs – both financially and mentally.

(I back all my tips to £20 per point, so rest assured, when I hit -18 points in a row, I feel it and I don’t like it!) 

ODDS...the average advised odds so far in 2016 has been 11.5/1. The average winning advised odds has been 8.7/1. I don’t deal with horses at the shorter end of the market, in general (doesnt mean there isn’t value to be found at that end) but average odds like that mean severe losing runs, but also healthy profits and a decent ROI. 

You do with all of that info as you please, but, I know one thing for sure, Mr Pricewise would quite like a set of figures like that, not only for 2016, but for all of 2015 as well I suspect 🙂

I will be trying my best to keep it going. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

Not the best month on the micro systems, or year to date…

FEB TOTAL: 98 bets / 13 wins / -17 points to best available prices

2016 Total to Date: 14 bets / 22 wins / -9 points 

I do plan to go through the splits between the different systems for 2016 to date and will do that ASAP on this post.

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There will be no ‘EYE Catcher’ or Micro angles in this post, I will throw a few in next week’s ‘Weekly Diary’ post. If there were any horses that entered your tracker, especially in 3m+ chases, then please do share them!

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

3 Responses

  1. Cheers Josh, fantastic month again. I’ll let you know when I get to the stage of being happy to lose lol
    #stateofzen
    Paul

    1. haha cheers Paul – it took me a while – albeit I lost a stack load early on in my journey, which has actually helped me mentally – I never think about the money now when i lose, I can get uncomfortable for sure, but my first thought for a loser is what went wrong, what did I miss, and why didn’t I back the winner!!

  2. Was having a little playabout on HRB last night and whilst I have probably drilled a little too deeply I did notice that the Henderson stats improve even more when you look at his 5/6 year olds in handicap hurdles on good ground. Pretty much flawless the past 2 years. Obviously not many qualifiers but something to note.

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