A frustrating day. The 1.05 was a fascinating race where you could make excuses for the front few and on a different day the result could have been more favourable. Keel Haul was 5th on my list, and he was 25s last night/this morning. So, that is annoying, really annoying. There was some rain this morning which softened the ground a tad and he also benefited from the leaders being battered by the wind and the horse behind him having a horror run. Still, 25s should have allowed for any ground niggles. Still, I am getting closer to a winner in one of these races and my analysis is much better than some of my efforts a few weeks back. Minella Present backers can feel unlucky – he suffered interference 3 times I think and with a clear run would have won no doubt. But, that is the nature of hold up horses. Looks like he will be put away for the Festival and he is one to keep onside. If there wasn’t such a strong headwind I suspect Pearl Legend may well have gone much closer, having had a fairly easy time up front. In the end those exertions paid but he ran well in 3rd. Who knows what would have happened to Lough Kent if he had not belted the last couple and the rider hadn’t lost his irons. But, the fences are there to be jumped. He swung into the race turning in and I though we had the winner. Not to be. Another race at Cheltenham that changed dramatically up the hill. Still, a great race to watch.
Another shortlist day where a big priced horse (backed from 20s to 10s) ran a cracker in 3rd, just getting going a tad too late. His chance is not far away in C4. The other didnt run great but plugged on for 3rd, both rewarding any EW backers. (not me) Knocking on the door, but that is not enough…
If you are signed up to The Daily Punt email list you may have seen an initial preview for the Paddy Power Gold Cup with some stats/trends etc. Having now considered the race in more depth I have a couple of main fancies…
BIG RACE PREVIEWS…
Double Ross 1 point EW 25/1 (25/1 Bet365, 5 places)
Art Mauresque 1 point EW 12/1 (general, 5 places Bet365)
You will have to check out the Daily Punt blog if you wish to see my reasoning etc. I suspect they will send this out tomorrow and I will post a link below when I have it. Those bets above will count in the blog’s results etc.
Perfect Candidate 1pt EW 14/1 (PP/BV/Coral)
Black Thunder 1 pt EW 20/1 (WH) 18/1 (PP) 16/1 (general)
Black Thunder has a touch of class here and on some of his runs this step up in trip looks like it could be just right for him. Given the yard I am not worried about fitness and in any case 16s/20s allows the chance. Nicholls is 2/17, 8 places in the race which is a positive. He wont mind what the weather does and I expect a bold show here from him, if ready to go.
Perfect Candidate runs for a trainer who is 1/3,3 places in the race with his runners to date. He knows what type of horse is needed in this and I think he will stay every yard of this trip. He will appreciate the step up and comes here after a decent run at the track LTO. 14s seemed big to me given I am confident he will stay, he is in good form and we know he will be race fit.
Alan King and Hobbs are a combined 0/18, 1 place in this race between them which would be concerning for their horses. SS has his well-being to prove having stopped quickly LTO. He is a decent horse but this is a new test and 8s seemed short enough given the questions he has to answer – albeit he has a touch of class. The same with Upswing – 8s appears tight given the balance of his form. Knowckanrawley is interesting but Bailey is 2/72 here which is a bit off putting, despite the stables decent form. Also his form to date does not match that of the selections, alebit he will stay up the hill.
Cogry looks the other most interesting one. He looks likely to stay and if his jumping holds he has a profile to go well here. He is around 10s and the bigger prices lured me into the selections – there isnt too much I could say to put you off him really. NTD is 1/15, 7 places in the race. I am happy to take on the rest.
No Shortlist Today.
CHELTENHAM MICRO SYSTEMS
1.50 Chelt – Black Thunder (Nicholls 4/5 with such runners)
2.25 Chelt – Kings Palace (looks sure to go well, although slight niggle over how Pipe’s are running, a bit in and out)
3.35 Chelt – Herbert Park
1.50 Chelt – Rigadin De Beauchene (Williams at Cheltenham again X)
2.05 Weth – Elenika (16/1 or under)
2.35 Ling – Millys Gift (14/1 or under)
3.00 Chelt – Batavir (14/1 or under)
3.35 Chelt – Herbert Park (14/1 or under)
2.15 Uttox – Thatchers Gold (12/1 or under)