Members Report: 14/11/15 (COMPLETE)

RE-CAP

A frustrating day. The 1.05 was a fascinating race where you could make excuses for the front few and on a different day the result could have been more favourable. Keel Haul was 5th on my list, and he was 25s last night/this morning. So, that is annoying, really annoying. There was some rain this morning which softened the ground a tad and he also benefited from the leaders being battered by the wind and the horse behind him having a horror run. Still, 25s should have allowed for any ground niggles. Still, I am getting closer to a winner in one of these races and my analysis is much better than some of my efforts a few weeks back. Minella Present backers can feel unlucky – he suffered interference 3 times I think and with a clear run would have won no doubt. But, that is the nature of hold up horses. Looks like he will be put away for the Festival and he is one to keep onside. If there wasn’t such a strong headwind I suspect Pearl Legend may well have gone much closer, having had a fairly easy time up front. In the end those exertions paid but he ran well in 3rd. Who knows what would have happened to Lough Kent if he had not belted the last couple and the rider hadn’t lost his irons. But, the fences are there to be jumped. He swung into the race turning in and I though we had the winner. Not to be. Another race at Cheltenham that changed dramatically up the hill. Still, a great race to watch.

Another shortlist day where a big priced horse (backed from 20s to 10s) ran a cracker in 3rd, just getting going a tad too late. His chance is not far away in C4. The other didnt run great but plugged on for 3rd, both rewarding any EW backers. (not me) Knocking on the door, but that is not enough…

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If you are signed up to The Daily Punt email list you may have seen an initial preview for the Paddy Power Gold Cup with some stats/trends etc. Having now considered the race in more depth I have a couple of main fancies…

BIG RACE PREVIEWS… 

2.25 Cheltenham

Double Ross 1 point EW 25/1 (25/1 Bet365, 5 places)

Art Mauresque 1 point EW  12/1 (general, 5 places Bet365) 

You will have to check out the Daily Punt blog if you wish to see my reasoning etc. I suspect they will send this out tomorrow and I will post a link below when I have it. Those bets above will count in the blog’s results etc. 

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1.50 Cheltenham

Perfect Candidate 1pt EW 14/1 (PP/BV/Coral)

Black Thunder 1 pt EW 20/1 (WH) 18/1 (PP) 16/1 (general)

 

Black Thunder has a touch of class here and on some of his runs this step up in trip looks like it could be just right for him. Given the yard I am not worried about fitness and in any case 16s/20s allows the chance. Nicholls is 2/17, 8 places in the race which is a positive. He wont mind what the weather does and I expect a bold show here from him, if ready to go. 

Perfect Candidate runs for a trainer who is 1/3,3 places in the race with his runners to date. He knows what type of horse is needed in this and I think he will stay every yard of this trip. He will appreciate the step up and comes here after a decent run at the track LTO. 14s seemed big to me given I am confident he will stay, he is in good form and we know he will be race fit. 

Alan King and Hobbs are a combined 0/18, 1 place in this race between them which would be concerning for their horses. SS has his well-being to prove having stopped quickly LTO. He is a decent horse but this is a new test and 8s seemed short enough given the questions he has to answer – albeit he has a touch of class. The same with Upswing – 8s appears tight given the balance of his form. Knowckanrawley is interesting but Bailey is 2/72 here which is a bit off putting, despite the stables decent form. Also his form to date does not match that of the selections, alebit he will stay up the hill. 

Cogry looks the other most interesting one. He looks likely to stay and if his jumping holds he has a profile to go well here. He is around 10s and the bigger prices lured me into the selections – there isnt too much I could say to put you off him really. NTD is 1/15, 7 places in the race. I am happy to take on the rest. 

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THE SHORTLIST 

No Shortlist Today. 

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CHELTENHAM MICRO SYSTEMS 

1.50 Chelt – Black Thunder (Nicholls 4/5 with such runners) 

2.25 Chelt – Kings Palace (looks sure to go well, although slight niggle over how Pipe’s are running, a bit in and out)

3.35 Chelt – Herbert Park 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

November Trainers 

1.50 Chelt – Rigadin De Beauchene (Williams at Cheltenham again X)

2.05 Weth – Elenika (16/1 or under) 

2.35 Ling – Millys Gift (14/1 or under)

3.00 Chelt – Batavir (14/1 or under)

3.35 Chelt – Herbert Park (14/1 or under)

Jumps Handicappers 

2.15 Uttox – Thatchers Gold (12/1 or under)

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. Today was a good day also backed valadom ew at 40/1 Saturday is always a hard day so be careful I have already backed to for tomorrow too singles and a double ew boomdooma and perfect candidate

    1. Well done – think I am about to join you with Perfect Candidate, looks like he will stay up that hill all day, trainer 1/3,3 places in race to date. Boomdooma looks a decent horse – I had slight niggle as to whether he will stay if rain comes, but, a point winner so should be ok,but has it to prove.

  2. I like GENOROUS RANSOM in the 2.25 chel got decent speed ratings will like the going distance and course had run over hurdles 3 weeks ago to get him right for this race and off a light weight should run well for ew backers 16/1

  3. Hi Josh, how do you recommend we back when there are 3 or sometimes even 4 horses in the same race shortlisted on your post, either in your tips/shortlist and systems?

    1. Hi Ali – I try and make it clear if I dont fancy a system horse when ‘tipping/shortisting’ in the same race and if a system horse is not tipped (in a race I am tipping in) it means I dont fancy it for a full bet. I didnt back the Williams chasers yesterday for example due to her poor record at the meeting and niggles about the horse. Kings Palace is the only clash today – I think he is short enough given he has a few questions to answer but has class – so you may disagree with me. It is up to you what you do with them – whether you have a saver on or just go with tips/shortlist.

  4. I make Oscars Rock the PPGC bet because his potential improvement is unquantifiable today – and high class form lto. Sure to be suited by the strong pace and the need for stamina at the finish, with the forecast rain a benefit.
    150 Le Reve is too big at 30 on BF
    300 Morito du Berlais gets a proper stamina test, after a freshener with 7lb off and blinkers on.
    235L Goken has his 1st run for Ryan and seems to have been found the right race, assuming he works well on poly.
    310L Grendisar is well suited by CD and this company.
    325U Neworld was too big at 8.8/3.00.
    400U Penn Lane 9/2 for a trainer with excellent stats and a horse suited to soft.
    May the profit be with us.

    1. Good Luck Chris, yep can make a case for plenty in the PP, including OR and can see why you would like him. He will need to step up again but as you say is still improving.

  5. Wow what a too days I have had too small stakes bets today ew lucky 15 14/3 3rd 16/1 winner 20/1winner 8/1 3rd also lucky 31 lost 16/1winner 6/1 winner lost 13/2 winner happy days

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