Cheltenham Open Meeting: Some Stats Pointers

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HANDICAPS

Before delving into some trainer stats, let’s have a general look at the odds (ISP) of the winners:

14/1 or under: 341 bets /40 wins/11.73% SR/+7.46 SP/119 places /34.9% PlaceSR /+57 BFSP /AE 0.97

16/1 -40/1: 336 bets / 5 wins / 1.49% SR / -210 SP /45 places / 13.39% PSR/ AE 0.36

Over 40/1: 70 bets / 0 wins / 1 place

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It appears clear that bigger priced horses struggle at this meeting and that the market is usually a decent enough guide in these handicaps. Of course the odd one goes in, but they are very hard to find! (give yourself a pat on the back if you do pick one out)

The five trainers to have winners priced between 16/1 and 40/1:

• P Hobbs: 1/12, 3 places (all ‘place’ stats include any winners)
• N Twiston-Davies: 1/12, 2 places
• R Dickin: 1/4, 2 places
• D Pipe: 1/12, 4 places
• M J Scudamore: 1/3, 1 place

Of interest:

• P Nicholls: 0/14, 4 places
• V Williams: 0/18, 0 places
• A King: 0/12, 0 places
• C Tizzard: 0/10, 1 place

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For now, all trainer stats will focus on horses priced 14/1 or under. This will give a more reliable reflection of how they get on.

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Handicap Chases

Positives (all those with at least 2 winners)

• P Nicholls: 14 bets / 4 wins / 5 places / 28.57% WSR / +22.5 SP
• D Pipe: 19 bets / 3 wins / 8 places / 15.79% SR / +15 SP
• N J Henderson: 13 bets / 2 wins / 6 places / 15.38% SR / -1.17 SP
• Jonjo O’Neill: 8 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 25% SR / +10 SP

Those with 1 win to their name include: Hobbs (1/12,3 places); F O’Brien (1/4,4p); A King (1/7,2p); K Bailey (1/1); Hawke (1/3,1p); Tizzard (1/4,2p); N Mulholland (1/2,2p)

Others of Note

• V Williams: 4 bets / 0 wins / 0 places
• M Keighley: 4 bets / 0 wins / 3 places
• N-T-D: 13 bets / 0 wins / 6 places

No other trainers have had more than 3 runners since 2010.

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Handicap Hurdles

• D Pipe: 19 bets / 6 wins / 11 places / 31.58% SR / +25.5 SP
• P Nicholls: 22 bets / 4 wins / 8 places / 18.18% SR / +10.25 SP
• P Hobbs: 14 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 14.29% SR / +4 SP

Those with 1 win to their name include: N Henderson (1/18,9p); NTD (1/10,2p); Mulholland (1/1); W Mullins (1/2,2p); A King (1/7,2p); Ferguson (1/4,3 p); A J Martin (1/4,1p); OMeara (1/2,1p); J Candlish (1/2,2p); T George (1/4,2p)

Others of Note  

• V Williams: 7 bets / 0 wins / 1 place
• Bailey: 4 bets / 0 wins / 0 wins
• G Elliot: 5 bets / 0 wins / 2 places
• Jonjo O’Neill: 8 bets / 0 wins / 0 places

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NON-HANDICAPS

HURDLES (all non-handicaps)

Odds…

12/1 or over: 56 bets / 0 wins / 3 places

Under 12/1: 67 bets / 15 wins / 36 places / 22.39% SR / -6.03 SP

Trainers of Interest

• P F Nicholls: 13 bets / 4 wins / 8 places / 30.77% SR / -0.37 SP
• P Hobbs: 4 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 50% SR / +0.43 SP
• N J Henderson: 9 bets / 2 wins / 7 places / 22.22% SR / -3.09 SP
• M Keighley: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% SR / +9.5 SP
• Tizzard/Ferguson/Bradstock/Harrington/Pipe/ all one win each
• NTD: 4 bets / 0 wins / 3 places

CHASES

Odds…

Over 7/1: 94 bets / 1 win / 9 places

5/1-13/2: 18 bets / 1 win / 6 places

9/2 or shorter: 62 bets / 23 wins / 39 places / 37.1% SR/ +19.12 SP

Trainers of Interest (9/2 or shorter)

• P Hobbs: 11 bets / 6 wins / 11 places / 54.55% SR / +9.05 SP
• D Pipe: 6 bets / 4 wins / 4 places / 66.67% SR / +5.51 SP
• P Nicholls: 9 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / 33.33% SR / +0.83 SP
• W Mullins: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% SR / +9 SP
• N J Henderson: 4 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 50% SR / +3.1 SP
• N Williams/I Williams/Webber/King/Lavelle/Jonjo/ 1 win apiece
• Tizzard: 4 bets / 0 wins / 0 places

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Nick Williams and Paul Nicholls are responsible for the two bigger priced winners, over 9/2.

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Back to the…

HANDICAPS

Other stats/points of interest (14/1 or under)

• 4 year olds in handicap hurdles: 28 bets / 6 wins / 11 places / 21.43% SR / +24.88 SP / AE1.89
• Horse Runs in previous 90 days:
  • 0 = 135 bets / 22 wins / 53 places / 16.3% SR / +51.58 SP / AE 1.26
  • 1-3 = 190 bets / 17 wins / 61 places / 8.95% SR / -31 SP / AE 0.79
  • 4+ = 16 bets / 1 win / 5 places / 6.25% SR / -13.12 SP / AE 0.43
• Those that last ran at a Festival LTO:
  • Aintree Grand National Meeting: 19 bets / 4 wins / 7 places / 21.05% SR / +21 SP
    • Hobbs (2/2); Nicholls (1/4); Pipe (1/4)
  • Galway Festival LTO: 2 bets / 1 win / 2 places / 50% SR / +9 SP
  • Cheltenham: 20 bets / 2 wins / 10 places / 10% SR / -6.67 SP
• Track Last Time Out (includes stats above)
  • Aintree: 38 bets / 9 wins / 16 places / 23.68% SR / +45.5 SP
    • Hobbs: 3 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 100% SR / +30 SP
    • P Nicholls: 7 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 28.57% SR / +9 SP
    • Jonjo O’Neill: 5 bets / 1 win / 2 places / 20% SR / +5 SP
  • Horse ran 1-10 days ago: 18 bets / 0 wins / 2 places
  • Horses Wins in Handicaps
    • 0: 117 bets / 21 wins / 52 places / 17.95% SR / +59.75 SP / AE 1.38
    • 1+ : 224 bets / 19 wins / 67 places / 8.48% SR / -52.29 SP / AE 0.73
  • Horses making their handicap debut:
    • 51 bets / 10 wins / 28 places / 19.75% SR / +19.75 SP / AE 1.32
      • Pipe: 12 bets / 4 wins / 9 places / 33.33% SR / +19.5 SP
      • Nicholls: 10 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / 30% SR / +11.25 SP
      • Henderson/Hobbs/OMeara with 1 win apiece
    • Trainers record: 0 wins in a handicap prior to racing here:
      • Nicholls: 19 bets / 6 wins / 10 places / 31.58% SR / +29.75 SP
        • 4/5, 4 places in Handicap Chases
      • D Pipe: 18 bets / 6 wins / 13 places / 33.33% SR / +26.5 SP
      • Hobbs: 8 bets / 3 wins / 5 places / 37.5% SR / +25 SP

MICRO SYSTEM

• Cheltenham Handicap at Paddy Power Meeting
• NO Odds Cap (trainers below are 1/10, 5 places over 14/1 with these runners)
• Horse Wins in a Handicap: 0 (ie unexposed) (all stats from Horse Race Base so will IGNORE any runs abroad, in France for example)
• Trainers: P Hobbs / Paul Nicholls / David Pipe

Hobbs: 11 bets / 4 wins / 7 places / 36% SR / +43 SP

Nicholls: 25 bets / 6 wins / 12 places / 24% SR / +23.75 SP (4/5 with chasers – 2/20 hurdlers)

D Pipe: 19 bets / 6 wins / 14 places / 31.58% SR / +25.5 SP

Same rules, of interest:

• Tom George: 1/4, 2 places
• OMeara: 1/1
• Mulholland: 1/2, 1 place
• NTD: 1/7, 2 places

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Happy Punting, 

Josh