1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
FLAT
Ayr
2.00 – Tanawar (micro runs) ES I3 25/1 UP
3.00- New Youmzain (3yo+) ES 40/1 UP
5.00 – Perfect Words (3yo+) H3 G3 9/2
Windsor
5.35 – Dandy Flame (all hncps) H3 9/2
6.40 –
Glorious Forever (all hncps) 2/1
Western Duke (micro age) 14 H3 I3 G1 3/1
7.50 – Boychick (all hncps) H1 I3 G1 2/1
SUMMER JUMPS
Newton Abbot *
*do note as yet there are no advised strategies around the red ratings pointers below for Jumps..the main strategy relies on geegeez speed ratings which have a summer holiday over sticks. The other strategy looks at those priced 10/1-25/1 on morning prices,as per price I enter next to horse. I’ll pull together that info into another link for The Key,as a point of reference…
2.15 –
Jack Snipe (hncp chase) H1 10/3 WON 10/3>11/4
Louis Phillipe (hncp chase) H3 I3 13/2 UP
3.45 –
Honey Pound (micro TJC) I1 16/1 UP
Treasure The Ridge (micro age) H3 7/1 WON 11/2 (R4)>4/1
Scorpion Star (micro age) 25/1 UP
4.15 – Agentleman (micro dist) 14 H3 I3 2/1 UP
4.45 – Complice Du Chenet (NHF) 25/1
**
KEY
H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
I1/I3 = Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3
14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE
‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>> (updated)
Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>
Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>
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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)
Bet of The Day… (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)
NONE
But some subjective notes…
Perfect Words looks interesting enough here and 9/2 looks just about ok. All his career wins have been over 5f in class 6 and he doesn’t mind a bit of cut- albeit wouldn’t want it soft- they may get rain and if this turns to soup he would be in trouble. But he is a sprinter in form, he has gone back to back before, and he will sit just behind the pace. He is also 2/3 over course and distance, which may just give him the edge over the 7/2 fav albeit he looks to have a strong chance of following up also. 9/2 seems fair to my eyes.
Over the jumps.. Treasure The Ridge looked ok at 7s also for me.. while aged 8 he is 0/6,2p over hurdles and may be starting to get the hang of it having been running on the level for an age. He was much improved the last day in reapplied blinkers and IF they work again he should be thereabouts- they drop him back in trip also. He travelled well the last day and hit the front a couple out and if he can do that here they may not catch him. He will race handily. Stamina wasn’t the reason for defeat the last day, he just bumped into one. But they were both clear of the rest which is a positive. He is in form and should run his race I hope.
I’ll be having a little nibble on those two.
I won’t say much on Tanawar as I don’t like to discuss negatives (albeit the market may guide, he is 0/8,0p sent off 14/1 or bigger in handicaps) but he is an ES qual and Ruth’s can bounce back to life- I was struggling to see why he would today but many a horse has left me red faced in my time and second guessing 20s shots can be painful! I will just mention Reinforced in that race who I may throw 5 at – he jumped out at me when flicking through all the runners and riders above. He ticks the race conditions, drops back in class,and looks like he could get an easy enough lead here (top rated geegeez also) This is his correct trip and he has been running well enough. He does need cut i think,and can get outpaced on good or better- so hopefully there is genuine soft in the ground and any rain a bonus. I thought 13/2, 7s was a shade generous albeit open to attack from anything unexposed, but maybe canny Ruth Carr will have the lot! (hmm)
And New Youmzain.. one neg did catch my eye- trainer is 0/48,1p with all runners ever returning 365 days+ off the track. Maybe not one to put he mortgage on,but again is ES, and 40s, and you never know.
*
Galway… I may record a video preview of the card later this morning, with a focus on those ‘qualifiers’ below. That will be shared for all on free post by no later than 12.
3.Micro System Test Zone
July Trainer (any odds)
3.00 Ayr – Addicted To You
CD Jockeys
7.50 Wind- Boychick (any odds)
4.Any general messages/updates etc
A few bits and pieces below to have a flick through.
Firstly there are links to the two main stats packs that form the basis of section 1 above, ‘winter’ Jumps and Summer Stats. I am starting researching the 2017/18 version of the winter jumps soon, in time for October. The Summer Stats – well we are half way through the season, or just over half way, so you may as well just have a copy. I did charge a discounted rate for members at the start of the season, as a recognition for the 40-50 hours research each report takes. But they will probably be included for free in future. So..
- Winter Jumps 16/17: Read HERE>>>
- Summer Stats 2017: Read HERE>>>
**
GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2017
Members’ Report: READ HERE>>>
**
GALWAY 2017
Members’ Report: READ HERE>>>
DAY 1: Notes
(‘qualifiers’ against notes above. Starting points…)
5.20 – Nessum Dorma , 14,30
5.55 – Artful Artist
6.25 – Roderic The Second 14
7.05 – Vanderbilt 14
7.40 –
Digeanta (5/1< SP) 14,30
The Graduate (16/1<)
Lagostovegas (5/1<) 14,30
Shinghari 14
Whisky Sour (5/1<) 14,30
Sweet Company (16/1<)
8.10 –
Acclamatio (16/1<)
Foxy Lass 14
840 – Poet Power 14,30
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15 Responses
Morning Josh,
I thought doing the 10/1+ Inform Racing Ratings was profitable for the summer jumps or is that just recency bias kicking in?
Regards,
Nick
Morning Nick, hmm I don’t think so, from memory the early stats were not promising, but there have been some in recent weeks from memory – again we prob at point now where the data may be more reliable- and the ratings pointers spreadsheets are only to do list today/tomorrow. There is some recency bias- can’t find the stats but they didn’t start that well, so will be interesting to see. Would be pleasant if they could match Geegeez 10/1+.
Josh
GALWAY STATS… as an aside.. i noted Hogan has a few biggies above and have had a look at his stats.. with flat runners, sent off 22/1 or bigger he is… 0/101, 4 places… monsters are hard to find it seems!! He is overdue one though.
Video ‘preview’ of day 1 here… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/07/30/free-daily-post-310717-hold/ (i’ll try my best to speed these up, failing so far though!)
just keep doing what your doing if the video’s are1, 2, or even 3 hours we all have a fast forward. don’t sacrifice the quality to make the video shorter. personally would rather all the information and take the bits that interest me. after all we all have different betting habits.
its nice you even do a video so I wouldn’t worry about how long it is.
I second that. Much better everything you want goes in there and it takes a few extra minutes. Going back to your first point if you’re backing Hogan’s systematically would you still do them all or apply an odds cap?
Hmm tricky, it is really hard not to be put off by those odds stats, isn’t it?? We shall see if any nibbles- all of his flat horses have a few questions anyway, albeit one of them is at least in form. The place stats put you off also, not like he is 0/101, 20/5 odd places – clearly some sort of guide. Tricky one. I personally don’t like taking an overly systematic approach to those notes, but that’s me, and it sometimes end in tears!
Always cautious- because they are always new research, and in their own big meeting microcosm.
I had mine on already so we shall see how today goes although obviously if I stop from tomorrow than a biggy will go in at godknowswhat BFSP!
Quite- and he is due one to go in, and it is probably likely it will be here, and yep the BFSP could be a case of name your price! I’ll no doubt end up having some just in case BFSP minimum stakes bets, having said all that! I never go mad on them anyway, as it is just good fun/entertainment, while making a stronger case for the odd one every now and then.
I further filter the micros by +20 performance and on price that I think is value. For Hogan I only like Shinghari each way. Poet Power looks good in the last at 4/1+. Six in my filter and so let us see how they go.
Hi Josh
Appreciate a lot goimg on at the moment but im off to Beverley tomorrow. If you cast your eye over the card and post any pointers it would be appreciated;-
Hopefully Dawoodi in the 4:30 will provide some spending money!
Hi Darren,
Will see what I can do! What with Galway/Goodwood may be tricky, but i’m sure I can find 10-15 minutes somewhere, you’ll have to keep an eye out in comments on tomorrow’s members’ post, ill get something up by midday latest- even if it is a note to say there is nothing!
GL in 4.30..25s, that would be nice!
Josh
Thanks Josh. Appreciated.
No luck in the 4:30. Heres to more luck with Galway….
no problem.. ah, not many 25s hit the board, but you dont need many to find the net over time, and that’s why you have to cheer them home and enjoy them! We’ll need plenty of luck there… Martin has pulled out one of his in the 7.40, and as luck would have it his other one, first reserve, has got in!! The game is never that easy mind, but be interesting to see how he goes now (Sweet Company…)
galway 7-40 result makes it a good day all round had Whisky Sour ew @28-1 and Digeanta ew @ 25-1, looks like 4 winners from stats pack so a nice profit, cheers Josh.
what time will you be posting goodwood/galway as i’m off out early in morning and there’s no wifi where i’m going