Free Daily Post: 31/07/17 (complete)

No system qualifiers or ‘tips’ today.

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GALWAY 2017

I may attempt a video preview of Day 1 with a focus on the list of horses below…they qualify against my members’ ‘big meeting notes‘ for one reason or another. They are ‘starting points’ and with any luck will find some tasty winners over the next 5 days.

Video: Oh, I wanted this to be 10 minutes long or so.. but I don’t appear to be very good at time keeping! With any luck the time flies by 🙂

 

 

You can take a 30 day trial of Geegeez Gold, for £1, HERE>>>

(‘qualifiers’ against notes. Starting points…)

5.20 – Nessum Dorma , 14,30 

5.55 – Artful Artist

6.25 – Roderic The Second 14 

7.05 – Vanderbilt 14  

7.40 –

Digeanta (5/1< SP) 14,30

The Graduate (16/1<)

Lagostovegas (5/1<) 14,30

Shinghari  14

Whisky Sour (5/1<)  14,30

Sweet Company (16/1<)

8.10 –

Acclamatio (16/1<)

Foxy Lass 14

840 – Poet Power  14,

 

Key

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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Would you like my Galway+Goodwood trainer notes? 
Members’ get these as part of their membership but if you would like to buy a copy without joining the club you can now do so.
There is no hard sell here. They cost £7 (+vat) and are deliberately sold through ClickBank so that you can get a full refund come the end of the week, if they were not for you.
Sometimes these notes find plenty of decent priced winners, sometimes they don’t! Sadly history is no guarantee of future success but when it all clicks, it’s rather good fun.
You can find these trainer notes/positive pointers/micro angles for 5 trainers at Goodwood and 6 at Galway. All of these trainers have had great success at recent meetings.
(and if they don’t work for you, just get a full refund, no questions asked. No problem)

 

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Questions…

A couple of you (Chris and Eric) posted a question or two under yesterday’s post.. I’ll get round to answering them on here shortly…

Chris… Q about stats/trends/shortlists/number on shortlist… I try and aim to get a shortlist of 4 or 5 if I can… that makes it manageable. If, with the approach I use, it is bigger than that it may suggest that it isn’t a trends race to go mad in. I wouldn’t personally like backing more than that in a race but would depend on price- and trying to take a more subjective view on the qualifiers and hoping for the best! There are no set rules as such and you do not want to be digging for the sake of it, one of those you play race by race.

Eric.. Q about International Handicap and why I didn’t focus on two specific stats that were left off my trends profile for that race.. ‘best in three runs’ and ‘run (last placing’)… (and that Stamp Hill fell down on)

I took a view on the significance of the numbers this time I think – (on 10 year stats…) the Best In Three Runs.. I generally look at winning/top 3, and you have to treat each place as a sep stats pool, or view it that way anyway. It would be easier to explain with a vid but there was a winner that had finished 4th as best in last three, and then the stats pools shrink from 5th down.. a couple of placed 5th/6th and rest not worth bothering with- I do take a subjective view as i go through- on what looks/feels significant race by race- i can’t measure that and it is hard to explain- but that’s why all trends folk come up with different shortlists etc- they put emphasis on different stats and prob the numbers behind them. Anyway, I must have doubted the relevance of that stat/finishing position/recent form stats-  again with horse run last placing – there is a big drop off after top 3 in terms of runners… and those that last placed 6 or 7 starts ago were 0/12,4p… as an example.. I suspect I looked at that and thought- hmmm.. let’s ignore.. now the mindset there is that placing on last 3 runs is clearly a positive, but not necessarily a negative for the rest. For the Skybet Dash I clearly took the view that Top 2 on last 3 was a big positive, and a negative for those that did not- there are bigger 0/x numbers from 3rd-7th – again that is where my subjective judgement comes in race to race- Chris has found winners from how he looks at races that I haven’t/wouldn’t have and vice versa- and likewise you will find winners that I don’t if you place importance on something else. I suppose you develop a feel with experience and that is how i do things. It isn’t necessarily right or wrong- well there is no right or wrong approach to trends/stats research for big races really.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Looking forward to Galway and Goodwood this week. I will be looking for some value with the Galway micros later.

    Todays bets – WIN – 4.30A Aprovado – just beaten LTO and a good chance to make amends. 3/1. EACH WAY – 3.45 NA, Sureness – likes to go left handed at around 2M, 10/1; 6.50 Wol, Gold Club, competitive race but has such a race in him, 15/2; 8.00 Wolv, Brandon Castle, likes not to win but is dropping in the weights and can pop in to the first three, 12/1.

    martin colwell 31/07/17 9:30 AM Reply


  • I shall be at Goodwood tomorrow and Thursday and possibly one other day. Off to Windsor tonight which does not look very exciting.

    31st July Windsor 5f mdn
    4.25 Dream Prospect
    3.75
    3.5
    3.25
    3
    2.75 Global academy
    2.5
    2.25
    2 City Guest, Istanbul Pasha, Spring Romance
    Preview – Poor race, presumably between Dream Prospect and City Guest

    Prior race notes
    Dream Prospect – Lighter small type, looked fit enough to do better than this. 70
    City Guest – Ok chunky type, not fully fit despite 2to, probably broken by trying to go with principals early, bound for nurseries. 70
    Spring Romance – Poorly made. Not much to see here. 60

    31st July Windsor 6f Novice
    4.25 Adulate, Al Barg, Wear It Well
    3.75 Tip Two Win, Usher
    3.5
    3.25 Time For Wine
    3
    2.75 River Rule
    2.5
    2.25
    2
    Preview – I am tempted to think that Tip Two Win is a bit of a little freak and will cope with the extra weight, Al Barg the obvious danger, their TS and RPR are mutually contradictory, will have to have a look at them.

    Prior race notes
    Tip Two Win – Modest looking chap but did this very well on debut. Reluctant to give such a limited scope the rating he would get if he was a decent size. 75
    Spring Romance – Poorly made. Not much to see here. 60
    Time For Wine – have seen this one but no comments, photo from Windsor shows ok size, very fit, has disappointed badly on two runs.

    alpha2 31/07/17 2:28 PM Reply


  • One at a price in the 345 Newton Abbot. Collodi with the claimer riding is on a gd mark if putting it all in as when with Bridgewater finished 2nd to a decent horse Kapstatd in 2015. Now with Mullholland a trainer who has a impressive CD record i cant let this one go unbacked at @34 to win and 8.6 to place. Leep of faith needed as just as much chance we tail off last but the price is simply to big and worth a specualative punt.

    james bull 31/07/17 3:27 PM Reply


  • Jish
    Thanks for latest video. Very very informative and well worth the watch. Please don’t shorten them for the sake of it as they need to show the relevant detail for us to lean how you work and the way both Ggeez and HRB can help in decision making. As a suggestion would it be feasible to segment your videos into handicap and non handicap so as to offer to those who bet in one or the other more detailed study.
    Whatever you decide I for one don’t mind how long you make them.
    Thank you
    David

    David Dickinson 31/07/17 3:28 PM Reply


    • Hi David,

      Yep in truth they just won’t be shorter! I’ll try and get 20 mins max and be more succinct but I won’t shorten for the sake of it-

      – what I should do is take a note of when I go from one race to the other and just add that below the video so you can jump to race X etc

      -i am a handicap punter generally, and bar having those stats as a way in above wouldn’t normally bother looking at any non handicap! – I will do the odd ‘through the card’ video, mid week, when it is quiet on the racing front, for a bit of fun. May be some place pot use, or some laying use!!

      I can do detailed- I could spend 40 minutes on one handicap if I had to! 🙂 We will do a trends one at some point maybe, and I need to do a new set on horse race base…

      there are some old HRB videos here… https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/08/23/horse-race-base-some-over-the-shoulder-videos/

      Yes thanks for buying the notes, much appreciated – you’ve effectively bought me two pints for Friday night, so cheers 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 31/07/17 4:00 PM Reply


      • A not so bad day the 7.40 worked out well with 1st 16/1,3rd and 4th.
        Of course I backed the 4th but was good as an 8/1 winner so happy enough.
        Left the 8.10 as the odds precluded a place bet for my price set.
        Well done on another decent day Looking forward to a great weeks racing and more videos.
        David

        DAVID DICKINSON 31/07/17 8:47 PM Reply


        • Yep, i missed all of those placed in the 7.40! Wonderful. But the 6/1 winner of last was one of my three main bets from that little lot so I won’t complain. 5/1< guide for Mullins Galway Flat runners, he was 0/13,2p bigger SP, 5/1< a big pos as did cover all his winners, but clearly prob wise now on not to be put off by bigger ones- not without looking at horse in some depth- and trainers 'in form' can count for plenty! Sounds like a decent enough day to me! Don't get too expectant on the video front- i have to put plenty of my energy into members club first thing, and have to get balance right etc. But I enjoy recording them- but they may not be all on these posts- always a tight rope! Glad you had a good day, Josh

          Josh 31/07/17 8:53 PM Reply


          • Josh
            I use s.w.i.p. stop when in profit. I may miss a winner or two by stopping early but it helps focus my mind on profit. I missed the last winner but hey ho.
            David

            David Dickinson 31/07/17 10:25 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Just sent payment for trainer stats
    Thanks for publishing
    David

    David Dickinson 31/07/17 3:34 PM Reply


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