Nothing today, a quiet one before it all steps up a gear at Galway and Goodwood.
I am just going to take this moment to bask in the last 6 big handicaps covered on this blog… my unique trends approach seems to be working still and without doubt it is wise to have something on shortlisted horses, especially when a decent price. Chris’ sterling trends/stats work has made me question the odd way I do things and I have added in/looked at a few angles I didn’t previously. Reflection and minor tinkering is never a bad thing. Nick asked about a horse’s OR against their last run for a micro he was looking at- and that sparked a thought – i’d never before considered using that in trends analysis – so that’s in there also.
Anyway, the below makes good reading, and is posted to give us all confidence moving forwards. The approach works. It’s as simple as that. And often I am best not over-thinking the selections. Many a long suffering reader has banged the ‘just back the shortlist’ drum and I think that message has eventually got through!
15th July/2.10 Ascot
Shortlist: Edward Lewis UP , Polybius (2nd 12/1) , Lexington Abbey (4th 16/1), Son of Africa UP, Doctor Sardonicus UP
Bunbury Cup
Shortlist: Gossiping UP / Above the Rest WON 20/1>12/1 (15.05 BFSP) / Donncha UP / Kadrizzi UP/ Von Blucher UP
Scottish Stewards Cup
Shortlist: War Department UP/ Red Pike UP/ Flying Pursuit UP / Classic Seniority WON 16/1 (25.31 BFSP) / King Robert UP
SkyBet Dash
Shortlist: (exc odds) Snap Shots UP / Normandy Barriere NR / Al Qahwa 2nd 9/1 / Jay Walker (DNQ,Odds) / Flying Pursuit WON 12/1 (14.01 BFSP)
International Stakes (handicap)
Shortlist: Fastnet Tempest UP / Remarkable UP / Fawaareq UP/ Sir Roderic UP/ Stamp Hill. WON 50/1 (137.97 BFSP!)
Oh, and the Summer Plate!…
Shortlist: Idliketheoption / Alcala WON 11/1>9/1 (14.71 BFSP) / Poker School / Earthmoves
**
I think it is safe to say the trends/stats shortlisting has worked well enough for those last 6 races.
6 races / 27 bets (if you’d just backed every shortlisted horse) / 5 wins / +87 points (early/BOG) +175 points BFSP
So, + £435 or +£ 875 to £5 bets in just over 2 weeks of racing. Solid. And all for free. 🙂
And, as always, to keep our feet on the ground… we are due a few losers. I do like to take an opinion on the shortlist and stake accordingly. But the evidence suggests it is unwise to leave any shortlisted horse alone, and especially if they are a decent price.
We shall see how the next 6 races go.
With any luck you may have backed one or more of those, or may pay closer attention moving forwards! 🙂 (that’s a note to myself as much as anything!!)
Enjoy the rest of your weekend
Josh
15 Responses
Fantastic work Josh had yesterdays winner at bfsp my biggest winner in 15yrs of betting,love this site
Well, that’s what we like to hear, top work! Hope the voice has recovered. 🙂 Now we’ll all try our best to find your next biggest winner.
(BFSP wise that is probably the biggest winner ever on this site I think. Had Very Wood at Festival one year,50/1, don’t think his BFSP was that big)
Wow I just realized how stupid / unlucky I am after seeing this post. I now remember thinking “stamp hill is by far the biggest outsider of the shortlist, I’ll just back him in the place market” and I forgot to do even that, I just backed the losers. Sod’s law is so cruel.
Also, I saw his price graph and he was drifting literally all day from around 75 to 137 BSP, why did he get zero support despite the winning profile? Weird.
Mr Fahey said on his blog Stamp Hill has been an extremely disappointing horse. We’re putting blinkers on him here but he’s a hard one to assess as at home he does nothing wrong and is an absolute star. He hasn’t quite delivered on the track though. He won’t mind the ground here and on a very good day would have an each-way chance – despite it being a warm race – as he has no weight on his back.
The first time blinkers low weight making the difference also The Feathered Nest for Fahey wore cheekpieces for the first time yesterday 14/1 winner and a low weight. BOOM BOOM
Well done Owen.. headgear can work wonders… CP didn’t do much for Stamp Hill LTO which niggled at me but blinkers are completely different – in hindsight there was no reason not to have ago.. he answered my ‘is the horse doing something different’ question, esp for horses seemingly not running well/as a reason for why they should improve- and blinkers was it- what with his place on the shortlist i should have had a bigger go – or same amount of stakes as I had on couple of others! But, that’s with hindsight. fahey had a decent record in the race as well, and it all came together.
One for the first time blinkers in handicaps stats…unsure how that runs these days?
oh in general you’d lose a lot of money with that basic angle! In general 1st time headgear a quick was to lose money,esp blinkers- the winners stick in your mind but there are plenty of losers- good supporting info but don’t think 1st time blinkers ever a good starting point- some trainers do well/know when to apply, and if you like the price they are a reason to take a punt if hoping for improved form- well in my view anyway.
You’d probably do better laying 1st time blinkers in some circumstances…
Well I’ve just looked…in flat handicaps, 1st time blinkers.. a general 6% sr, in 2017: 20/277,53 places, -67 SP, +45 BFSP, AE 0.76, so performing 24% below market expectations.
is this the same david Dickenson who used to write for the raceform on Saturday? if so his tips were outstanding.
Or maybe ‘The Duke’ whose tips would be ‘as cheap as chips’?
Very impressive results.I have made the mistake on more than one occasion fancying a horse,but being put off by the long odds believing others know better than me to learn later that the horse has at least been placed.
Thanks Denis, yep it has been a good couple of weeks on that front- it doesn’t always go like that obviously, but plenty of points to play with. The stats shortlists usually highlight a couple at a price that run well, and every now and then one wins.
Never be put off by the price, esp in these big competitive races- now that is easier to stay than do, and while I think my ‘big priced’ mindset is ok these days, and much better than when I started, it does still impact you mentally- and probably always will to a point- but it is certainly never a reason to not having anything on one- the market often doesn’t have a clue- these are big fields, most here to run their race- and unlike most week day racing they are assured to go a proper gallop- which is something you don’t get every day. I think that is what sees some horses show better form than they may have been etc. Some just like a big field/the pace/coming through horses etc.
Fingers crossed we can keep it going in the latter half of the season.
Josh
Slightly perplexed Josh as to why you didn’t use either the ‘Best in Three Runs’ or ‘Run (Last Placing)’ stats in the Ascot race. Either one looked significant to me and so I failed Stamp Hill on it.
Ignoring it was obviously the right thing to do in this particular analysis but what have I missed that was evidently crucial? One or two wrong decisions on what is or isn’t significant can make such a huge difference.
Regards Eric
Super trending, Josh!
Trends’ trends not too looking shabby at all. I think my query from a weeks ago regarding your hypothetical P/L of shortlist backs and shortlist non-backs has a clear winner now!
Moving forward with your strategy of backing all shortlist runners, how will you play should there be say, 6-8 qualifiers in a 142 runner race? Will you have some sort of ratio of qualifiers:runnners or minimum odds brackets in place? It is easy to fall into the trap of looking for differentials for differential’s sake after you have a shortlist if you feel it is too long.
Oh and if you’re giving me some sort of credit for a 137/1 winner whilst sat by the pool I’ll take it!
🙂