Nothing today, a quiet one before it all steps up a gear at Galway and Goodwood.
I am just going to take this moment to bask in the last 6 big handicaps covered on this blog… my unique trends approach seems to be working still and without doubt it is wise to have something on shortlisted horses, especially when a decent price. Chris’ sterling trends/stats work has made me question the odd way I do things and I have added in/looked at a few angles I didn’t previously. Reflection and minor tinkering is never a bad thing. Nick asked about a horse’s OR against their last run for a micro he was looking at- and that sparked a thought – i’d never before considered using that in trends analysis – so that’s in there also.
Anyway, the below makes good reading, and is posted to give us all confidence moving forwards. The approach works. It’s as simple as that. And often I am best not over-thinking the selections. Many a long suffering reader has banged the ‘just back the shortlist’ drum and I think that message has eventually got through!
15th July/2.10 Ascot
Shortlist: Edward Lewis UP , Polybius (2nd 12/1) , Lexington Abbey (4th 16/1), Son of Africa UP, Doctor Sardonicus UP
Shortlist: Gossiping UP / Above the Rest WON 20/1>12/1 (15.05 BFSP) / Donncha UP / Kadrizzi UP/ Von Blucher UP
Scottish Stewards Cup
Shortlist: War Department UP/ Red Pike UP/ Flying Pursuit UP / Classic Seniority WON 16/1 (25.31 BFSP) / King Robert UP
Shortlist: (exc odds) Snap Shots UP /
Normandy Barriere NR / Al Qahwa 2nd 9/1 / Jay Walker (DNQ,Odds) / Flying Pursuit WON 12/1 (14.01 BFSP)
International Stakes (handicap)
Shortlist: Fastnet Tempest UP / Remarkable UP / Fawaareq UP/ Sir Roderic UP/ Stamp Hill. WON 50/1 (137.97 BFSP!)
Oh, and the Summer Plate!…
Shortlist: Idliketheoption / Alcala WON 11/1>9/1 (14.71 BFSP) / Poker School / Earthmoves
I think it is safe to say the trends/stats shortlisting has worked well enough for those last 6 races.
6 races / 27 bets (if you’d just backed every shortlisted horse) / 5 wins / +87 points (early/BOG) +175 points BFSP
So, + £435 or +£ 875 to £5 bets in just over 2 weeks of racing. Solid. And all for free. 🙂
And, as always, to keep our feet on the ground… we are due a few losers. I do like to take an opinion on the shortlist and stake accordingly. But the evidence suggests it is unwise to leave any shortlisted horse alone, and especially if they are a decent price.
We shall see how the next 6 races go.
With any luck you may have backed one or more of those, or may pay closer attention moving forwards! 🙂 (that’s a note to myself as much as anything!!)
Enjoy the rest of your weekend