No system qualifiers or ‘tips’ today.
I may attempt a video preview of Day 1 with a focus on the list of horses below…they qualify against my members’ ‘big meeting notes‘ for one reason or another. They are ‘starting points’ and with any luck will find some tasty winners over the next 5 days.
Video: Oh, I wanted this to be 10 minutes long or so.. but I don’t appear to be very good at time keeping! With any luck the time flies by 🙂
(‘qualifiers’ against notes. Starting points…)
5.20 – Nessum Dorma , 14,30
5.55 – Artful Artist
6.25 – Roderic The Second 14
7.05 – Vanderbilt 14
Digeanta (5/1< SP) 14,30
The Graduate (16/1<)
Lagostovegas (5/1<) 14,30
Whisky Sour (5/1<) 14,30
Sweet Company (16/1<)
Foxy Lass 14
840 – Poet Power 14,
14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
A couple of you (Chris and Eric) posted a question or two under yesterday’s post.. I’ll get round to answering them on here shortly…
Chris… Q about stats/trends/shortlists/number on shortlist… I try and aim to get a shortlist of 4 or 5 if I can… that makes it manageable. If, with the approach I use, it is bigger than that it may suggest that it isn’t a trends race to go mad in. I wouldn’t personally like backing more than that in a race but would depend on price- and trying to take a more subjective view on the qualifiers and hoping for the best! There are no set rules as such and you do not want to be digging for the sake of it, one of those you play race by race.
Eric.. Q about International Handicap and why I didn’t focus on two specific stats that were left off my trends profile for that race.. ‘best in three runs’ and ‘run (last placing’)… (and that Stamp Hill fell down on)
I took a view on the significance of the numbers this time I think – (on 10 year stats…) the Best In Three Runs.. I generally look at winning/top 3, and you have to treat each place as a sep stats pool, or view it that way anyway. It would be easier to explain with a vid but there was a winner that had finished 4th as best in last three, and then the stats pools shrink from 5th down.. a couple of placed 5th/6th and rest not worth bothering with- I do take a subjective view as i go through- on what looks/feels significant race by race- i can’t measure that and it is hard to explain- but that’s why all trends folk come up with different shortlists etc- they put emphasis on different stats and prob the numbers behind them. Anyway, I must have doubted the relevance of that stat/finishing position/recent form stats- again with horse run last placing – there is a big drop off after top 3 in terms of runners… and those that last placed 6 or 7 starts ago were 0/12,4p… as an example.. I suspect I looked at that and thought- hmmm.. let’s ignore.. now the mindset there is that placing on last 3 runs is clearly a positive, but not necessarily a negative for the rest. For the Skybet Dash I clearly took the view that Top 2 on last 3 was a big positive, and a negative for those that did not- there are bigger 0/x numbers from 3rd-7th – again that is where my subjective judgement comes in race to race- Chris has found winners from how he looks at races that I haven’t/wouldn’t have and vice versa- and likewise you will find winners that I don’t if you place importance on something else. I suppose you develop a feel with experience and that is how i do things. It isn’t necessarily right or wrong- well there is no right or wrong approach to trends/stats research for big races really.