No system qualifiers.
Hugh’s latest post on all things 2 year olds is complete and can be read HERE>>>
Plenty to take away including a few for the notebook. Also includes detailed paddock side reports with photos/notes.
8/1 winner… hopefully….
Below is my ‘bet of the day’ from the Members’ post- which is still a ‘test’, esp the Flat side- it will all come together at some point, a few too many near misses at decent prices for my liking. Thankfully the core ‘strategies’ are flying along for the flat. I am also taking Nick on with one of his selections below- I may have a saver now (do ‘savers’ ever win?!)- but given how the form of the two ties in, with any luck there won’t be much between them,either way…
Bet of The Day… (test) (Flat: 6/53,20p, -4.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/114, +21.6
8.50 Nottingham- Lady Natasha – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP
hmnm. Lady Natasha just appears a one paced plodder- but you get what you deserve if you hold one up that far back in a race with no obvious pace- stayed on well enough but was never going to get there. Tricky for the jockey given the draw- suppose you have one of two choices, the other of which is to burst out and try and get a handier position. But then you risk being 4/5 wide on the bend. That was predicted pre race but at 8s happy to take a dart. Winner dictated from the front. One of those where you can keep making excuses – certainly needs a stronger pace to aim at, and would be nice if they rode her more prominently so the energy was used to try and win, rather than to close leaders that are not stop
I’ll be having a go on this one at the price given this is only the 8th start of her life, there should be more to come at some point, and she is 6/1+/a decent price to my eyes. I think the ‘story’ of her recent runs makes sense and while it is never good to go looking for too many excuses I would hope for a better showing today.
So, the starting point was that she doesn’t have many miles on the clock. Next I noticed that she drops down in class here, back to C6 where she raced a couple of starts back. I also noted that she had been beaten by Incus at Donny, who then went on to win again and is currently fav here in an open looking contest.
That Donny run was decent. First it was her first run after a 222 day break and at one stage she looked like going all the way. The way she plugged on in the final furlong suggests she needed the run and/or that final furlong was just a bit too far. In any case there was a healthy gap from 3rd back to the rest and she wasn’t beaten up once the jockey knew the winning chance was gone. The winner would then follow up. I am not a big ‘pounds and measures’ punter- mainly as handicap chases are my fav race type and I pay little attention to weight/ratings in those, esp when expecting horses to reverse form etc. Jumping, for example, is much more important.
Anyway- in that Donny race, when you take account of claims etc the selection was giving the winner 14 lbs i think, today she ‘only’ gives her 6lb. Given that was the first run of the season I would like to think these two should be much closer – if running their races. Whether that is at the front come the death or mid division, we shall see.
The horse then returned 9 days later at Ayr, lugging 10-7 over 13f in soft. There is a chance she ‘bounced’ and combined with that big weight just had little petrol left when asked. She travelled well into the race and they all bumped into one there. It was a small field hack around as well, which I doubt suited this soft ground plodder.
The last day the saddle slipped forward and the jockey sent her forward in soft at Hamilton. She was a bit keen and I think the first time she had raced from the front. The fact Joe Fanning sat off her and in second may suggest he was going too quick – which given he was up her neck was no fault of his necessarily. Maybe that was her running but maybe it was a valid excuse.
So, we come to today. She gets a big field and hopefully they don’t dawdle albeit the race isn’t packed full of pace and given the draw will have to drop in- that is my main concern. But she is 8s and you can’t over think too much in that price range. Burke has been a bit quiet as well but did have a 1st time out 2YO winner the other day. There is also a jockey change, with a fully fledged pro up top. These two are 1/6,3 places when teaming up at the track since 2014.
She does look a slow plodder but in these conditions that may be enough. She has experience of the track and unlike most in here is proven to handle soft- her placed efforts suggest it isn’t an issue. There really is no excuse today. She ticks enough boxes for me and it will be interesting to see how she goes. She could just be out of form but if she repeats that Donny run she should be in the mix.
GL with any bets today.