Hugh Fowler: 2 Year Olds (#9)

Over to Hugh for some more 2 year old nuggets…

 

Week ending 16th July 

An interesting week with lots of promising stuff on show at Newmarket as was to be expected.

Cardsharp won the July Stakes in good style but is probably not top class. Big and precocious and superbly prepared by Mark Johnston but will probably suffer the same fate as Buratino who shone very brightly at 2 then faded.

The Thursday maiden 1 and 2 were both nice fillies (Spring Cosmos and Indicia) but this was not a special heat.

Friday saw the Duchess Of Cambridge (Clemmie) a good nursery (Tangled) and two divisions, one good, one bad, of a colt and geldings maiden. (Being There and Global Giant)

What was notable was the state of unreadiness and ordinary quality of the Hannon runners with the exception of Tangled who strolled away with the nursery. I think that perhaps they have a fairly ordinary bunch this year, I am sure they will mop up plenty of nurseries but I have yet to see on that has really spoken to me.

Windsor 10th of July. The winner Peggy’s Angel was shortlisted and a fairly easy pick on the day, possibly a bit lucky as Pat Cosgrave was delayed so Mitch Godwin claiming 5 took the ride and did a good job but only by a nose. Useful that 5lb.

Horses to follow added this week, Mambo Noire 80, Global Conqueror 79,​

 

Reports+Photos 

#1: Read HERE>>>

#2: Read HERE>>>

#3: Read HERE>>>

#4: Read HERE>>>

#5: Read HERE>>>

#6: Read HERE>>>

 

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Week ending 23rd July 2017

Just Windsor and Newbury this week. Windsor races both won at good prices by my top two on the algo scores. At Newbury 1st and 3rd Joint top rated in Mildenberger’s race, 1,2,3, in Stage Magic race and the fillies insoluble.

No horses from the to follow list ran but the winner of the Supersprint Bengali Boys had finished a close second to Chatburn, seen when withdrawn at Ascot and noted in horses to follow. Unfortunately I missed that collateral.

 

Horses to follow – 2yo maidens who did not win on debut and may from their placing not be obvious nto winners.

Nebuchadnezzar – Great big brute, good proportions. Probably the devil to get fit, ran ok, outpaced and staying on with purpose into a remote 5th. Has the size and scope to do much better nto as the race should bring him on. Maybe at Goodwood? Could easily be 80. No superstar but may be under-rated nto.

Mildenberger – Although he was colty in the pre-lims Mildenberger had a strong resemblance in terms of size, fitness and strength to Cardsharp at last weeks July meeting. Time ok for g/s.Big strong boisterous, typical Mark Johnston shape, longer body with less pronounced barrel to his chest, colty but not boiling over. 95

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Mambo Noire 80+ I have heard this race talked down but the winner Clemmie and this one both looked good.

Global Conqueror – Big hurdling type, Still a bit gross and whilst I thought he was long term the best of these will take a couple of runs to get truly ready. Sloping croup a small crib. 79

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Bhodi – Big strong boy, taller than the rest but greener too and his endless coltyness and foolishness probably cost him a chance to compete for the places. Probably the best here long term 80

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Murillo – Murillo – Pick of the paddock for me, big, scopey. May have been held up for a stride about a furlong out although replay is not conclusive. 104 Made 6/4 fav for Railway stakes 3rd.

Chatburn – withdrawn at the start in the Windsor Castle but was one of the better models. 78 Won 4 horse race at Yarmouth 12th July 4/6f.

Mrs Gallagher – Mrs Gallagher – Looks as though she was unlucky due to the draw. 85 Won 8th July Nottingham 2/5f.

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Musbaq – Splendid strong colt, hard to argue he did too much in front as Falmouth Light stayed on well who went with him.  Maybe not quite the natural talent. 77

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Polar Light – Finished 8th in the Folk Tale Newmarket maiden; way too green to do himself justice but simply a beautifully proportioned big strong colt. Will probably need 7f as a minimum. 82 Ran u/p 28th June over 7f at Kempton, needs 8f.

Cosmopolitan Queen – Big, tall, strong filly. Coat not come through and daft as a brush throughout the prelims. Here for an educational but I suspect Mr Elsworth and Jeff Smith have something planned for this girl. Possibly a bit gawky at present but some frame to fill out and a cooks bum. Wasted lots of energy beforehand rearing and prancing in the pre parade and paddock as well as at the start. Still shaped well staying on at the death. 80 possibly more. 2nd 28th June over 6f at Kempton 9/2. Needs 7f. Ran 14th July, overfaced in Duchess of Cambridge at HQ, last at 50/1.

Maksab – Is this Mick Channon’s Jallota for the 2017 season? Lower medium, green, 90% fit, despite this ran a good race out wide finishing off well. Given a really nice intro by SDS and could easily leave this form way behind nto. 81 Won 27th June 2/1.

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Match Maker – More compact and slightly lower slung than the first two. Medium. Tremendous stride at the walk, had to be niggled from an early stage as he ran green. Don’t think the stick was used and he was very purposeful toward the finish. Improve over further maybe past Westerland and Hey Gaman. 84. Looks to have had chance compromised by draw in The Chesham. Drawn 14 first 8 home drawn between 1 and 8. Back next twice.

Island Court – top end of medium. A typical Stan Moore bigger stronger type. Not ready to win here but ran a good race for his level of fitness. 74 this Camelot colt is not a world beater but may well be discounted in an easier race due to finishing position and connections.

Frostbite – Frostbite – Good sized medium colt, seriously short of debut fitness needed to win this but possibly can rate as good as anything else here. 75 Maybe a bit weak at the shoulder but looks to have the ability to improve from this and should be an ok price after finishing 7th.

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Special Mission – Sir Mark Prescott – Biggest in field, longer model, strongly made, around 90% fit but enough scope to improve considerably following a kind introduction. 75

Tathmeen – Richard Hannon – Tathmeen – Handsome, big athletic colt, still a bit rough in his coat on his flanks. Suffered, I think, a little from having Crowley aboard who is not at his best at Goodwood, only 8% on 2yos at Goodwood v 15% overall on turf. Not to say he is not tremendous improvement on his predecessor. He jumped off ok and pushed along a bit early, the horse then got lit up mid and did a bit too much in the middle of the race. He was then eased in good time though. Maybe more improvement in him than most. 90 In fact almost all of the runners from the Masar race at Goodwood should be taken note of nto. 3rd of 7 behind Invincible Army at Nmk 23rd June. Not supported. One more chance.

Another Day Of Sun – Cheap one bought for only 25k. Lower to mid medium, too free early, baulked late on and allowed to coast home. Instructive to look at his picture next to Masar as they are on almost the identical stride and similar shapes although ADOS is ¾ to 1 size smaller. ADOS’s coat is still to come through fully and he does not have quite the sheen of Masar. His muscle tone is also a little less defined. Possibly his neck is a little long for his frame in comparison and he does not give quite the impression of rib cage volume and power that Masar does. That said he does not look completely out of place and is a likeable type who will win races. My guess would be 82. WON NTO 5th June. Last of 6 28th June Salisbury Cl3 soft. Probably will need a sales race now.

Ertiyad – William Haggas From Mrs Gallagher maiden, probably the best filly seen as yet if it is not Out Of The Flames. WON Haydock 8th June. Disappointed in The Albany. 2 more chances.

 

Reports+Photos

#1: Read HERE>>>

#2: Read HERE>>>

#3: Read HERE>>>

#4: Read HERE>>>

#5: Read HERE>>>

 

**

That’s all for this update. Thanks for reading,

Josh (and Hugh!)

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • i’m just a week into using the website
    question.
    what do the numbers signify next to the horse
    4.25
    3.75

    warren bottomley 24/07/17 4:36 PM Reply


    • Hi Warren,
      Firstly welcome,
      Secondly this is a guest post from a reader who specialises in 2 year olds- below is a link to the first post in the series which hopefully answers your question- in effect they are his own ratings/method of assessing 2 year olds/handicapping them etc.

      https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/04/11/hugh-fowler-2-year-olds-1/

      The ‘free reports and systems’ tab at the top has plenty of old posts and various other bits and pieces.
      Josh

      Josh 24/07/17 5:23 PM Reply


    • Hi Warren, they are what I call my algo score made up of my personal trainer, sire jockey weighted scores specific to 2yos, the trainer weighting also varies according to run number.

      So as Josh says a type of handicapping but nothing whatever to do with any run the horse may have had. It is primarily a way of scoring debutantes.

      The rating in my post race ratings, roughly 40 to 105 is an approximation to what OR they will achieve as a 2yo.

      Hugh

      alpha2 24/07/17 6:09 PM Reply


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