Members Daily Post: 26/07/17 (complete)

quals+ratings pointers (additional qual) + notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Addition to Sandown as of 19.15…

 

FLAT 

Catterick 

4.30-

Jess (all hncps + 3yo+, + age) 25/1 3rd 50/1

Sir Geoffrey (micro going) I3 G1 10/1 UP

5.00-

Bold Spirit (3yo+) 7/1 UP

Emerald Secret (micro class) 14/1 UP

Misu Moneypenney (micro going) 6/1 UP

5.30 –

Canny Style (all hncps+micro age) H3 I3 G3 11/2 WON 11/2>9/2 

Cockney Boy (4yo+, +micro dist) 9/1 UP 33/1

Cloud Monkey (micro runs) 16/1  14,30  UP

 

Bath

2.40 – Babyfact (3yo+) 30  ES  H3 I3 G1 5/1  WON 5/1>9/2 

3.40 –

Stockhill Diva (all hncps)  ES  H3 I3 G3 8/1 UP

Silver Link (3yo+) 30   I3 G1 11/2 2nd 7/2 

4.10 –

Bohemian Rhapsody (all hncps) ES 16/1 UP

Wassail (4yo+) G3 9/1

 

Leicester

6.45 – Chancery (micro TJC) H1 7/1 UP

7.20 –

Flyboy (all hncps + micro class) 7/1 2nd 

Hajjam (micro TJC + micro age) 8/1 3rd 

8.20 – Dora’s Field (4yo+) 14,30  12/1

 

Lingfield

None.

 

Sandown

6.35 – Testbourne (all hncps)  33/1 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  (updated)

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)

NONE (‘tips’ wise, but a few notes below…)

hmnm. Lady Natasha just appears a one paced plodder- but you get what you deserve if you hold one up that far back in a race with no obvious pace- stayed on well enough but was never going to get there. Tricky for the jockey given the draw- suppose you have one of two choices, the other of which is to burst out and try and get a handier position. But then you risk being 4/5 wide on the bend. That was predicted pre race but at 8s happy to take a dart. Winner dictated from the front. One of those where you can keep making excuses – certainly needs a stronger pace to aim at, and would be nice if they rode her more prominently so the energy was used to try and win, rather than to close leaders that are not stopping. 

**

No ‘tips’ as such, mainly as I cannot make up my mind on a few, and while there are a couple in the more unexposed camp, 6/1 +, they have questions to answer which means I am not confident enough to put the 1 point on, I may well end up having a 1/4,1/2 myself..but I will get onto those… having gone through all those above I think you can make some sort of case for plenty. Maybe with the weather etc not a day to go mad but I would hope some of them will go very close. On paper they should… in the order they appear above… so my views, for what they are worth…

Sir Geoffrey – just to mention his Geegeez Speed figure which is massive compared to the rest in here- a ’76’ where the next best is 59,and most a fair bit lower than that. He is 11 and the last two runs may suggest he is going off the boil but there is the odd valid excuse for those last two runs. Now he will try and make all and he usually blasts out the gate. He could get out and bag the rail. The speed fig suggests they may not live with him. The downside is there is plenty of other pace in here and if he gets into a battle early his chance will be ruined. And he is 11. You’d think younger legs will get him again today. But at 10s there is enough there for me to throw something at him.

Bold Spirit – well I think the fav has a very good chance in this but his price is short, he has had an odd no. of days off suggesting an issue and soft ground (there is rain around,should be on soft side…HorseRacebase has it as soft,albeit RP as good to soft for now..) is also a question. His speed fig is big in this compared to the others. But- Bold Spirit is interesting at 7s/8s – I don’t think he likes GF, now 0/10,2p in handicaps on it – i think you can ignore most runs on that surface. This is his first run this year over 6f with give underfoot. He has dropped 6lb since the start of the season and gets a useful claim. He is 2/7,3p over CD and is well handicapped. Indeed he won over CD last August off 59, in near identical conditions. With the useful claim he races off 50 today. He is handicapped to strike at some point. There is a chance he makes all also, or in any case tracks anyone who goes past him early. Out of the three in the race he looks the most interesting and I have had a dart at 8s. Poor sod, he’s done for now.

Canny Style – arguably looks the most interesting one of the lot… cue tailed off last… He has only had 2 runs over 11/12f in a C6, and won them both. While not unexposed in terms of his total career runs- albeit only 4 still, he is unexposed over this trip and in this class. He drops into a C6 here which caught the eye, from a C4. That is quite a drop. His best runs have arguably come with give in the ground also and he could relish underfoot conditions. His jockey also looks like a star in the making and is on fire- 4/7,6p the last 14 days. I don’t pay attention to much that Timeform say- their main products are a ridiculous price to my eyes- but many clearly love them. But I do like some of their jockey analysis and I did note that Jamie Lynch said that on a few measures this lad is already out-performing plenty of seasoned pros. He can ride, and with any luck can ride this one to victory. 11/2 was just about ok for me.

I should mention Cockney Boy in the same race, where the market may guide to his chance- it’s his first run for M Appleby and that is the ‘way in’. He is 12/42,18p, +34 with horses from other yards first time up for him, in the last year. 19/77,30p the last 2 years, +50. He can improve them and they can leave any previous form well behind. If you play in the race/on the one above, he may be worth a saver just in case. On paper you couldn’t give much chance but all previous form could go out the window.

Over to Bath..

Well Babyfact is a ES qual and looks to have a solid chance- not much to add. She is well drawn for the first time in a few starts from memory and can make all. They will make plenty of use and won’t mind any rain- guessing a bit at Bath as to how much will fall. It may stay good, I can’t think it will be worse than Good to Soft. Hopefully she goes well. May get collared by something with more in hand but she will appreciate this longer trip more than the bare 5f and usually tries her heart out.

Both in the 3.40 can be given a chance to my eye for one reason or another. Silver Link is unexposed over the trip. At the price I am a bit put off by the fact he lost a median auction maiden stakes LTO at 4/6, and a time the yard was red hot- they are still ‘in form’. That suggests he was fit but maybe he will come on for the run. Price is short for me in that context, but he could dot up. Stockhill will appreciate the drop back in class and hard to say he can’t be in the mix. Is an ES anyway and hopefully wins!

Over to Leicester…

Hajjam – i stared at him for a while. I think he could go close here. He is more on the unexposed side and is 6/1+. He was the first that was close to Bet of The Day Territory  (unexposed/6/1+)- but, he does have to prove he handles soft and he has to prove that he is up to C4- in the end those two things just nagged at my confidence for 1 point purposes. Maybe I have over-thought it. 8f on Gf may not have been idea the last day. They went a slow pace, he pulled for a bit, and then got trapped for most of the way up the straight. When he tried to get racing room he was bumped back behind the leaders. He handled cut at Wetherby a couple of starts back and ran well enough in a C4, having to run up the middle which may have been a slower part of the track. This is only his 4th handicap and first in open company, where he gets the allowances. I thought this bigger field and this stiff finish may be ideal over 7f, on what I have seen on video. IF he handles the rise in class, and actually does like soft ground! Maybe worth something at 8s, but I won’t be taking out a loan to back him. (clearly that’s never advisable! slow and steady :))

Dora’s Field- hmmm. The trainer form caught the eye here- 3/7,4p in the last 14 days, 4/16,6p the last 30 days. This will be only the 3rd start for the yard having shown the odd bit of promise for Ed Dunlop. Her two best runs have been over 10f with give underfoot and in C5 – which she gets today. She drops in class here and the trainer can ready they after a break. The niggle is that run LTO which was awful, and the break suggests something went amiss. So there are doubts there. She does get first time headgear also, so again ‘doing something different’. They may help albeit suggest connections think she could be doing more. I wouldn’t put 1 point on her, I haven’t, but again at 12s I probably can’t help myself for 1/2.

**

Clearly one or more of the 9 horses I haven’t mentioned from section 1, in the notes above, will now hose up – much like Monday! Albeit a few were short enough for me but there we go. I have a few 1/2s sprayed around on those above. I think you can make some sort of case for plenty at the prices- a few are unexposed, needing to return to an old performance and hope they don’t bump into anything. The others are unexposed enough but all with the odd question or two to answer.

This day is going one of two ways isn’t it?  I like those days, as the highs are high. The lows are bloody miserable though. But always tomorrow.

If I had a gun to my head, which is never an ideal situation to be in, I would say I’m most excited about watching Bold Spirit, Canny Style and Babyfact. You now know to focus on the rest! 🙂

That will do for today. If in doubt, just go with the strategies, esp ES. Those thoughts above may help with any of your own analysis. I like writing them to help with my own thinking/development and with any luck, if nothing else, you enjoy the read.

GL with whatever you go with. And don’t beat yourself up if you miss winners- it is an odd thing to say but you won’t back every winner on these pages. I don’t. Far from it. You just have to be happy with your performance over-time, however you back those in section 1/play with the other content in 3/4. Betting in these odds ranges is normally about keeping your head above water, bobbing along, and then bang – a big spike in profits, followed by some losers, back to bobbing along, and then another spike. Sadly it is never a gentle, even journey. Or never feels like that anyway. That’s horse racing for you. It is very hard to win long term backing favs/shorties.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

CD Jockeys

4.00 Catt – Landing Night 2nd

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing today.

 

**

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

44 Responses

    1. Ah bollocks, for want of a better expression. Cheers. God it annoys me when I miss one. No idea how I did with him. No ratings/ES sadly, but you never know!

    1. Hi David, i’ll have a look in the morning and see if anything leaps out at me. I don’t think i’ll match the heights of Haydock but will try. Maybe some others have the odd fancy also. I do like Babyfact in the first, should run his race, and drawn low. Not impossible they try and make all.
      Josh

      1. Hi David,
        Other than the 3 ES’s above I’m on King Oswald in the last. Left it a tad too late LTO at Bath but always runs on well. Change of driver might just be what’s needed.
        Mike

        1. won’t argue against Babyfact in the 2-40 but if there is significant rain overnight Divine Call could be ew value at around 40-1.
          Channon’s Kiruna Peak looks interesting in the 4-40 out again quickly after a running 1.5l 3rd lto.
          Zlatan a CD winner should give a good account of himself in the last, there does seem to a bit of an early punt going on 11-2 > 4-1

          1. I have been looking at divine call if we have a downpour, just worried his best days are behind him but at the price may throw a few quid on.
            Any idea why Josephine Gordon isn’t riding tomorrow on babyfact?

        1. cheers Pat, always nice when one of those i am most bullish about goes in, and staked accordingly – rare that always works out so well mind! ES, G1, drawn low, chance make all- that was over after 1/2 furlongs. Stays tad further. Nice to watch. Another for the Elite S

  1. Heavy rain forecast for the morning , could change things around a bit, would be unusual to have a bit of cut in the ground at Bath in July!

    1. good spot, more rain the better for Babyfact I think, soft no problem- I did not it was already just ‘good’ which means they must have had plenty in recent days for no firm at all to be present! Hopefully not a tranche of non runners.

    2. Hi David,
      No idea what the weather is doing but you will know soon enough when you are there I suppose…

      some brief thoughts…

      2.10 – my word that is an awful race- and what form there is isn’t great.
      Charlie Hills is 1/4,2p with 1st time 2 year olds and his may be worth a dart- esp if you can get paddock side and have a look at his temperament – i am no great paddock watcher but you can tell if they are unfit sometimes. I wouldn’t be putting too much on this race personally if I were at the course!

      2.40 – well covered.

      3.40 – covered again with systems – Pacharana is the only soft ground winner if it does turn testing,but most of others have never had many goes on it, so a bit of an unknown.

      4.10 – looks a conundrum.. Bohemian R is an ES pick, may be worth change- saving grace is that he is proven on soft- but i think this trip is further than ideal, and I have no idea why he should suddenly snap back into form having been atrocious recently. no headgear switch, the move up in trip is doing something diff- does get young Jenny Powell on for the first time- not impossible she ride him at home and they have a bond! That may be clutching at straws but ES 16/1 pokes probably shouldn’t be over-thought. I’ll having something on, not as much as Babyfact but that is a personal choice that may leave me red faced.

      Now we get onto two who I think look most intriguing, other than BabyF…

      4.40 – Kiruna – 7/2 ok – i think he should get an easy lead here and they will try and make all. I like Bishop and he is good from the front- drop in class from LTO and drops 1f in distance which will help. Should give backers a bold sight well into final furlong, if he gets the pace right. Ground a niggle but was GS LTO and went well on that. Soft would be an unknown.

      5.10 – British Embassy looks worthy of an EW tickle to my eyes- pace interests me again- they should try and make all. And he just appears to love Bath- 2/5 here, 2 further places.. so 5 runs and only out the frame once. He won’t mind softening ground, seems versatile and may well prefer it. 4lb lower than a second here 4 starts ago. He may just be out of form now but returning here could perk him up. At 9s or so worth an EW stab to go with whatever else you may fancy.

      Enjoy. Looks a challenging card!

      Have a beer or three for me.

  2. BHR

    Bath

    18mm Weds 20mm Friday 16mm Sunday No rain overnight although currently raining. Forecast: Weds: Patchy light rain early hours. Heavier between 9:00 – 10:00, lighter rain thereafter, drying up mid afternoon. Potential for 2-6mm in total.

    Updated @ 6:38am, Wed 26 Jul

    just had a look at met office good chance of a heavy rain from 14:00 – 15:00 too

    Good (GoingStick: 8.2 on Wednesday at 06:30)
    Updated @ 7:01am, Wed 26 Jul

  3. Cockney Boy has also flag up for my system, M Appleby – first run for trainer, Handicaps only, odds 21 and under

  4. Hi Josh, for years before the advent of “Tinternet” I searched high and low for quality racing magazines etc and only ever came across one ( forget the name) and it no longer exists.
    Having just signed-up for the free trial and reading this blog it would appear that my search is over, the indepth analysis and systems, aligned with the input of other subscribers is excellent. Iam with you now for the long term win or bust, keep up the great work, Andy.
    p.s it’s Baby Fact for me too.

    1. Hi Andy,
      Welcome, and thanks for your kind words. We all try our best at Racing to Profit towers and glad you enjoyed the read- never thought about viewing it like a magazine subscription, but at just over £3 per week, what a bargain! (i’m clearly very biased but thankfully enough seems to be happy)

      But, you do have a 21 day trial for a reason, you may change your mind! 🙂 … 8 people left in last few days, only half way through trial, the Elite Squad made 15 points or so in that time, but you can’t please all the people all the time. Some just want ‘tipping’ which is fair enough but you don’t really get that here. It’s a bit different. And some have different expectations I suppose, maybe they want quick wins or it’s just not for them. That’s the point of the trial though.

      With any luck it is always a good read, even when there is the odd slump/poor day/poor week,but that’s racing. Always plenty on the free posts also, esp weekends.

      Long term we do just fine and there will be plenty to get stuck into in the coming weeks/month- and if you enjoy reading content and also adding in your own thoughts/views as to what to back, you should enjoy the ride. The Elite Squad appears to pay for a few of my own personal darts at other horses!! 🙂

      I fear we have set up BabyFact for a fall and I have cursed here for you, but I am also convinced she will make all- and just cling on from a fast finisher at the line.

      It is a fine bunch of readers we have here, many a shrewdy who are adept at picking out some crackers. It’s a great atmosphere I think and long may it continue.

      Happy punting, and reading,
      Josh

      1. Yep looks that way certainly – they/owners can’t be massive gamblers as price didn’t move at all really, unless they have shrew ways of getting it on. Those ones are always enjoyable.

        1. Opened at 8s in places last night and I got 6s with the 10p R4 but you’re right any movement wouldn’t have been the owners money.

    1. It’s a long game Gavin haha- I hope some confidence came through on that one- just have to be patient with those types, they come along often enough- ES/ G1/front runner/drawn low/not much other pace/conditions ideal/step back up in trip/running well enough/decent jockey booking/yard in form. Easy game sometimes, you have to enjoy those ones!
      But, another for the Elite Squad, which I like. That’s fast turning into my best ever idea! (and now cursed for eternity)

      1. Easy game hehe, yeah Josh totally agree with about the Elite Squad, I am very grateful you came up with that idea 🙂

        Just thought only 3 weeks and it’s Ibiza time, lets hope the profit keeps rolling in for some beer money 😉

        1. my lord I will need it out there, I have a budget, and will not enjoy spending said budget but needs must! All inclusive hotel which I will use fully! (mainly the pool side bar) but the evening’s entertainment won’t be cheap. So yep, a few more winners would be nice, bigger odds the better.
          Josh

  5. Well that was easy- over after 1/2 furlongs to my eyes- was confident she wouldn’t come back to them if Dane got his fractions right and he is a bloody good jockey. Saunders has used him twice for recent wins at Bath, a booking to watch. First time drawn low I think for a few runs, no danger of being taken off feet over that trip- yea softening ground has probably helped- not sure how much has got in but lack of firm blunts speed of others as much as anything. Now for some more!

  6. Bath 3.40 Stockhill Diva has won 3 times on this going…if it’s as wet as reported.
    Worth a small saver?.

    Tony Mc.

    1. was worth a go at the price, ES, that is type where you can make a staking decision – I may have had plenty more on BabyF than on her- but on that run 2 starts ago, last race a C2- was hard to say she couldn’t win- but was up against many younger horses, and actually had 1st 2lb more on her back in actual weight than that last win- that can take a toll. drift appeared to tell the story as it turned out, but a dangerous game when you get totally put off (nothing on) by drifters. Plenty win.

      Winner was only proven soft ground winner in race, as noted in comments to David above- sometimes that simple!

  7. Hey Josh, not sure if its been mentioned already, but maybe a possible way to further improve the ES (not that it needs much) would be to add a condition to only select horses that have won, or placed say twice or more on the days going conditions?

    Fairly obvious one but I have been using it to further refine the ES and would be interested to know what effect it had on ROI of this strategy

    1. Hi James,

      well firstly I will never put anyone off doing whatever they wish with any quals to improve performance. And that may be something members wish to consider if attempting to take a more subjective view on ES quals. Certainly finding positives for why you may like a horse more and may put more on say, is a good idea. BabyF an example- she was clearly the best ES today to my eyes as had plenty of positives, inc conditions.

      If you have been using it etc I’d be interested in your results and ROI.

      Going is always tricky – I don’t think we have a great way of recording it and it is so interchangeable during the day etc that it makes it tricky. It’s not something i would introduce my end in terms of a systematic app or recording results – it will cause me more of a headache.

      You also have those horses that may have never raced on said going before and may relish it. I would certainly use it to improve confidence, rather than to dismiss a horse if that makes sense. But for some they may obviously not go on said going.

  8. Canny Style goes in for extra profits (didnt have time for the write up but was my only personal bet of the day so had nice chunk on that). Thought I was going to end up 2nd for the 2nd day running.

    1. Good stuff, yep had a good go on him – may have put a tad extra on the ‘gun to head’ selections in bold – i think he has won that cosily- surely cant be green still, maybe that is just him, always doing enough. Had a bit in hand I think but maybe he has to be cajoled.

      1. Still at work so didn’t see it so was shouting in my head for him to hold as the Racing Post app kept repeating the 2nd was making headway.

        As an aside any chance you could update your results sheet on the results page to show the latest stats which have both the ratings and ES on there (or just email it over) since likely going to start adding the ES qualifiers from Monday to go with the Double top rated and triple rated (top or top 3) that I do at the moment and wanted to look at the raw date for the best approach.

        1. I was never too worried.

          Hmm… got a post to the main one, ES in italics, will put that back up.
          Ratings Pointers one tbc- been busy with big meeting notes and got 2000 word article to write for Betting School- once they are out the way I promise will get it done- it isn’t hard- copy and paste job from one spred to another, then go through every blog post and note which ratings- not challenging, just time – and given the first proper results highlighted 4 ratings ideas, I have taken foot of gas with those.
          But the schedule is clear next monday/tuesday so you have my word they will be complete by then.
          Josh

  9. Great work today Josh very happy betting balance for a welcome change as I can’t tip a wheel-barrow without spilling something lol… keep them coming !!

    1. cheers Kevin. Yep nice when those I tried to exude a tad more confidence on do the job, 2/3 for the ‘gun to my head’ picks, and i would take that everytime. Couple more darts to go but been a decent enough day regardless, and hopefully however you played them. ha- we have all been there, and will be again- I have a good stockpile of wheelbarrows ready and waiting!

    1. I did see he picked out another monster! A mad day again and 250 odd points up with month I think. Shows no sign of stopping soon. And good for him that he backed a big drifter as well in terms on # followers. Sounds like you had a piece. Well done!

  10. Had a great day out, thanks for all your opinions.
    Babyfact was a winner from the first furlong, had 4 winners in total secret potion being the one I cheered home loudest, thanks to geegeez site I somehow found that one.
    Always enjoy our annual trip and think I may have got a few mates interested in this site and the aforementioned site.
    Cheers guys

    1. Well done David, glad to hear you had a good day out. Whoosh, secret potion was a biggie wasn’t he, great stuff. The two I part fancied in latter two races didn’t do much,albeit didn’t help that Channons fell out the stalls, not sure if he’d have led he’d have won as Hannon’s did it very well.
      4 winners any day, let alone when you go racing, is always good going!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.