Members Daily Post: 25/07/17 (complete)

quals + ratings pointers+ results update + Bet of the day

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT

Ffos Las

3.00 – Satchville Flyer (micro age) ES I15/2 UP

5.00- Celerity (micro dist) G3 6/1 2nd 

 

Musselburgh

4.15 –

Fine Example (all hncps + micro age) H3 I3 4/1 2nd 

Sunnua (micro class) 17/2 UP

4.45- Stoneham (micro dist) 14  H3 I3 G3 5/1 UP

 

Nottingham 

6.50 – Sitar (all hncps) G3 3/1 WON 9/2 

8.50 – Lady Natasha (all hncps, 4yo+) 8/1 UP 8/1

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  (updated)

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/53,20p, -4.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/114, +21.6)

 

8.50 Nottingham- Lady Natasha – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)

I’ll be having a go on this one at the price given this is only the 8th start of her life, there should be more to come at some point, and she is 6/1+/a decent price to my eyes. I think the ‘story’ of her recent runs makes sense and while it is never good to go looking for too many excuses I would hope for a better showing today.

So, the starting point was that she doesn’t have many miles on the clock. Next I noticed that she drops down in class here, back to C6 where she raced a couple of starts back. I also noted that she had been beaten by Incus at Donny, who then went on to win again and is currently fav here in an open looking contest.

That Donny run was decent. First it was her first run after a 222 day break and at one stage she looked like going all the way. The way she plugged on in the final furlong suggests she needed the run and/or that final furlong was just a bit too far. In any case there was a healthy gap from 3rd back to the rest and she wasn’t beaten up once the jockey knew the winning chance was gone. The winner would then follow up. I am not a big ‘pounds and measures’ punter- mainly as handicap chases are my fav race type and I pay little attention to weight/ratings in those, esp when expecting horses to reverse form etc. Jumping, for example, is much more important.

Anyway- in that Donny race, when you take account of claims etc the selection was giving the winner 14 lbs i think, today she ‘only’ gives her 6lb. Given that was the first run of the season I would like to think these two should be much closer – if running their races. Whether that is at the front come the death or mid division, we shall see.

The horse then returned 9 days later at Ayr, lugging 10-7 over 13f in soft. There is a chance she ‘bounced’ and combined with that big weight just had little petrol left when asked. She travelled well into the race and they all bumped into one there. It was a small field hack around as well, which I doubt suited this soft ground plodder.

The last day the saddle slipped forward and the jockey sent her forward in soft at Hamilton. She was a bit keen and I think the first time she had raced from the front. The fact Joe Fanning sat off her and in second may suggest he was going too quick – which given he was up her neck was no fault of his necessarily. Maybe that was her running but maybe it was a valid excuse.

So, we come to today. She gets a big field and hopefully they don’t dawdle albeit the race isn’t packed full of pace and given the drawn will have to drop in- that is my main concern. But she is 8s and you can’t over think too much in that price range. Burke has been a bit quiet as well but did have a 1st time out 2YO winner the other day. There is also a jockey change, with a fully fledged pro up top. These two are 1/6,3 places when teaming up at the track since 2014.

She does look a slow plodder but in these conditions that may be enough. She has experience of the track and unlike most in here is proven to handle soft- her placed efforts suggest it isn’t an issue. There really is no excuse today. She ticks enough boxes for me and it will be interesting to see how she goes. She could just bet out of form but if she repeats that Donny run she should be in the mix.

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Not many other thoughts on the rest really. Satchville Flyer is worth a go- you can make a case for the horse. This return to 7f on softer turf will suit, and a drop in class. He was taken off his feet the last day. He also gets a significant jockey upgrade. The only concern is the oppo- it is packed full of younger/more unexposed horses- but my approach is not to be put off by others, certainly if you follow ES systematically. Making assessments of the horses in 1 is hard enough without trying to look at all the others in a race! I suspect a younger one will have him here but you wouldn’t be shocked if he went close, and as such given his price/ES, i’ve had a go . While backing all ES may be wise – i doubt I will out-think a 24% win SR over time- you/I are of course free to adjust staking amount for example- you may take a a stronger opinion on some than others and that is always an option.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

3.00 Ffos Las – Peach Melba

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results: Flat Advised Strategies Weekly Update: 17th -23rd

Elite Squad: 

The week: 19 bets / 4 wins / 10 w|p / +15.2

Total: 81 bets / 19 wins / 38 w|p / 23% w sr / 47% w|p sr / +47.2 points (in around 34 days or so)

Strategy #1 (double/treble top rated)

Week: 0/3,op

Total: 37 bets / 11 wins / +12.75

Strategy #2 (top rated+ a top 3 rated)

Week: 24 bets / 5 wins / 11 w|p / +15

Total: 120 bets / 25 wins / 21% w SR / +28 points

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Thoughts… it has been a decent enough week. The Elite Squad continue to tick along and if you just want one strategy to back systematically that looks like the place to start. The win % and place % is mirroring the historical research/criteria for now. I can’t think they are going to maintain a 58% ROI but you never know. There will be losing runs, we are due a slump and I refuse to believe we have found the elusive magic money tree. The game is never that easy and gives you a slap down at some point, usually after a glut of 16/1+ winners! But, clearly I am delighted with how they have performed/started.

I suspect the long term fortunes of 1+2 will be founded on finding those decent priced winners. AlexanderK  20/1, was the first biggie i think for strategy 2 and clearly that has made a big difference to the week and the overall level. But again if those win% can be maintained, with a no odds caps approach, that should progress gently over time.

But, +88 points total for the three strategies isn’t too shabby 🙂 With any luck they can keep climbing,with the inevitable bumps in the road.

KEY- I have updated the advised strategies link in the Key. I am monitory two others and profit wise, #5 is starting to look interesting. Again, it is the big priced winners that make the ultimate difference to such an approach.

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Big Meeting Notes…

Quick update. I am in the midst of Galway/Goodwood/York Ebor stats research.

I think I will be taking a ‘less is more’ approach – well for Goodwood i’ll be praying Mark Johnston has a good meeting! Plenty to attack with him. Likewise Haggas at York and I have a decent angle for Tony Martin Flat runners at Galway, but have only dipped into that meeting.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. Thought I’d dip my toe back in to the all weather today.

    My way in for a starting point has been jockey, trainer combo at the course.

    7.00 Udontdodou 9/2 (general)
    7.30 Ourmullion 9/1 (lads)

    1. Nope, at the moment they are to advised odds (those added next to the horse in the morning/which is a generally available best price with at least 2x major bookies- albeit i never include Betfair Sports or Coral in that,and take a sceptical view of Skybet!- but always happy to be challenged on said price) and BOG if they go off bigger- any R4s taken into account. A few will have been bigger prices in the evening…
      BFSP data is easy enough for me to tot up for the Elite Squad as that is in the main spreadsheet- I just need to go through and do it – i doubt it will be as big but hopefully not too far off – Dalgelish 16/1 winner was 23/1 (or 24.00) BFSP for example. Hopefully evens out. But I will find out.

      For strats 1+2 it will exist also- but I need to update my other ratings pointers spreadsheet which is only to do list and I really need to get it done asap. Always more enjoyable things – like HRB research- to be doing! But it all exists on blog and just need to pull it all together.

      Josh

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