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Boxing Day Racing…
Tips Summary…
1.50 Wetherby
BALLYCULLA – 1 point EW – 14/1 (general) UP 20/1
2.20 Market Rasen
AMIDON – 1.5 points win – 8/1 (general) PU
THE MUMPER – 1/2 point win – 11/1 (PP) 9/1 (general) PU
3.25 Wincanton
None. Leaving that race alone. Plenty going on and I have run out of energy and I don’t think I will be getting up much before 10 tomorrow! (i had a brief look and nothing jumped out)
TIPS
1.50 Wetherby
BALLYCULLA – 1 point EW – 14/1 (general) UP (4th) 20/1 market indicated not fit, running style suggested not here to compete, rolled the dice, didn’t pay off. Usually runs a lot closer to front when there to compete. Got 3 of top 4 right, not Definitley Red. Shame selection wasn’t fit/raced more prominently as may have grabbed a place. moving on.
I will try and not write my usual volume of War And Peace but I think at 14s I want to have a go on this one- in a race that can throw up the odd strange result.
This horse has a very good record fresh and fitness should not be a problem if they want him fit. In C1 handicap chases Greatrex is now 0/6,4p with those returning after 60+ days off. He seems to be getting more adept at targeting decent races in this way, and had one such runner run well at Cheltenham last month. He also won this race last year with another 14/1 shot and this team’s boxing day focus seems to be on Wetherby this year. He is 2/10,4p over fences and there is a chance there could be more to come at some point, albeit he does look tricky at times. He is a CD winner and that run at Punchy in a decent chase last season caught the eye. I have just watched that again and he went well for a long way, hit the front momentarily turning home and stayed in there pitching. 25f, in soft, at that much stiffer track than Wetherby may have stretched him but I think it was a run that suggested he could win a race like this. Given all of those pointers above and the fact Sheehan is here, I expect their runners to go well, and hope this has been THE target for the horse. I think he is the only horse in the race where that may be the case. I could have that all wrong and that is two points I wont see. But at 14s I will roll the dice. I need to start going with these bigger priced ones having missed out on a 20/1 and 28/1 winner in recent weeks through I am not sure what- useless punting! He has every chance of out-running these odds. Oh and he is also a TTP qualifier and is top rated on Geegeez Speed…
In part I also can’t have either of the front two at their prices. They may battle it out, one may hack up, but around 7/2 for the pair seems short enough. Blacklion isn’t the biggest of horses – a terrier- and I am intrigued to see how he gets on with 11-9 on his back here, in a handicap. He may be fine. A niggle. I also thought he would stay the trip the last day and was disappointed with how he faded- jockey def said he thought maybe a wind issue or something and was surprised with his finishing effort- no TT here today though, so no idea. Anyway, I just think he has a question at that price. I would like to see him win as I like the horse, but can’t play him at that price. He may just out-class them. Not sure. Yala Enki makes a quick return and has gone up 10lb which are two question in relation to his price. At 8s/10s I wouldn’t care so much for the 10lb weight rise as he is young/unexposed, and should improve further. Also- he was able to dictate the last day over 23f. He shouldn’t get an easy lead here- a few pace pushers, and does have a stamina question over a strongly run 24f. Could be fine. 7/2 seems short. I am also not sure how deep that last race was and wouldn’t be shocked if it didn’t work out that well, bar the winner maybe!
Definitly Red at 5s doesn’t entice me in either- think also a slight stamina niggle and he was too poor for me the last day for a 5/4 shot. Henri Pari Morgan- I can’t work him out but there is something about him- he will win a nice race one day I think. But he was just too poor for me the last day also, even if he did need the run. His jumping is still sketchy as well and that could find him out. Again, 6s wasn’t jumping out at me. Bowen now only 2/60 in C1 handicap chases also, last 5 years. Maybe this will be 3/61.
Wakanda could go close here but again has been too poor for me the last twice. It could be this has been the target though and I suppose he looks interesting at a price also. I would have liked to see more though. I cant have the rest for me.
The selection should track whatever pace there is- a few can get on with it and I cant think anything will get an hassled lead, certainly without having to go too quick.
That will do. Oh, it looks like I have written another chapter.
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2.20 Market Rasen
AMIDON – 1.5 points win – 8/1 (general) PU
THE MUMPER – 1/2 point win – 11/1 (PP) 9/1 (general) PU
Well I wont look for excuses there, nothing to cheer turning in. Amidon in particular ran a shocker, really poor. Never really in in. Strange. A small chance he hates going Rh but unproven, clearly headgear didn’t work that well. -4 point day.
Amidon- something about him is telling me that this has been the target for him in the first half of the season. Firstly last year he won well on his third start of the season. The year before that he went close enough. Wadham ran him at Market Rasen two starts ago when he clearly needed the run I think- he has PU before, then run well, so wasnt a well being issue I don’t think. IF this was a target, it would makes sense that you would give him a sighter of the track/fences. She also books Watters – now on a busy day for connections/jockies I think she may have gone for the best one she could gives that he is 4/11 at the track in handicaps. This lad can ride. What else is there… well LTO he looked to be coming into form, travelling well in the first time visor (if not a little keen/fresh) into the home straight, weakening a couple out. He was held up and kept wide for most of the way there, on ground that had deteriorated. I am taking a punt on the visor working again but he may now be used to it, settle more, and it could help him finish.
Stamina… well that run at Newbury over 26f where he kept plugging on and chased home a tiring Silvergrove last season was of some interest. For me it showed he was well worth a crack at a trip like this. He is also by Dom Alco who has a decent record here and also has sired a few grinders over 3m3f or further, including a Grand National I believe (Neptune Collonges…I was the on the 2nd that day,beaten by a nose in the photo- still the closest I have ever gone in the greatest race of them all!) His record with those around this age is decent also.
So, for me, there were a few things going for him. He has time on his side but is hardy enough and this trip could be what he has been crying out for. I hope the visor works again- if he is travelling early hopefully he will be there turning for home. Maybe 1/2 a point too much but I just like his ‘story’ – and I may have read it all wrong, but I wanted to be bold.
The Mumper… I will keep this shorter. More speculative but this is his second run for the trainer and he ran ok on his first start for a while, LTO. The trainer also knows how to train a moderate stayer and I expect he will come on for that last run. I also found the booking of Moloney was interesting- arguably the best jockey in the race. The horse is 3/7,4p going right handed as well. He also rode the Evans horse two starts ago in this as well and hasn’t bothered with him today. Now, part of me doesn’t think he will stay, but I can’t be sure and he could relish it. He does have some ability and that win at Huntingdon offered some promise. This is only his 10th chase start and I though if he won at 9s-11s and I had nothing on I would kick myself- far more so than ‘losing’ 1/2 a point to find out.
Of the rest…Grove Silver can take his chance but 7/2 is short enough – he is a few lb about his last mark and is high up in the weights for an extreme distance. He may also want it a bit softer as well. Not a shock winner but not at that price for me. I really can’t have the rest – they either seem out of form, regressive or have a few too many questions for me. I would like to see Godsmejudge return to form but he just looks out of sorts- he was poor the last day and he has run well over that CD before, going much close. This trip will be fine, clearly, and he is becoming well handicapped- but not enough/or THE reason for why he would snap back into form. Maybe the trip will do the trick, I have my doubts. Trainer a bit cold also. It will be just my luck that Fill The Power leads, travels like a dream, and storms away- IF he does the first two of those, he may well do just that. He has the ability, it is all in the head. A tough ride for this young jockey but good luck to him. I am not sure if Ultimatum D R is good enough – 0/10,1p C46k+ or higher class. He was only moderate LTO also.
So, that will do. Amidon usually races up there or tracks the pace. No excuses. Moloney may try and drop his in and get into a rhythm. Both bases covered.
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That will be all for tips. Hopefully those three can run well and give us something to cheer on jumping the last few fences.
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JUMPS ANGLES
‘Core Micro Angles’
H Fry Mares (10/1< a guide)
12.30 Winc – GoodNightSweetheart UP
2.50 Winc – Desert Queen Fell
Pam Sly Fillies/Mares (any odds)
1.50 Weth- Actinpieces UP
Tom George Handicap Chases (any odds)
1.30 Kemp- Max Ward UP
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‘Monthly Pointers’ (I would use as starting point/added info)
December Trainers
1.55 Hunt – Red Admirable UP
2.15 Winc – Onefitzall UP
2.50 Font – Lapalala UP
3.45 Kemp – Lisheen Prince 3rd
3.45 Wolv – Examiner (14/1<) UP
Test Section
Handicap hurdle/chase Portfolio- Live Test
Hurdle
2.15 Winc – TheEagleHasLanded / Cool Sky UP
Chase
3.00 Weth- Pilgrims Bay – UP
3.25 Font – Kid Kalanisi – WON 9/1
V Williams Chaser- November (tracking into Dec due to giving impression 3/4 weeks behind) (main nov angle made around 15 points this Nov)
1.50 Weth – Yala Enki _ UP
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[poll id=”14″]
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That is all for Boxing Day from me.
Good luck with any bets and have a great day.
Josh
p.s I have no strong views on the King George and will just sit and enjoy. As you can see from the poll above it really is hard to split the top 2. One of them should be winning, bar accidents, but you never know. I do want to see something come upsides Thistlecrack to see how his jumping holds up under speed pressure as he is still a novice. I suspect he will be just fine, but it only takes one error. Just a race to watch for me. For the heart, I hope Cue Card bolts up, and does so again in March. But maybe it is time a new king ascended to the jumping throne….
25 Responses
I have had a look at the Boxing Day cards up to 2.00 race. Godsmejudge is dropping in the weights these days and at 14/1 may outstay the opposition at a price? Big Chief Benny is 12/1 in the last at KP. Gold Present represents the Henderson stable in the 1.30 KP. Always follow Hendo at this meeting. Buywise may win at last in the 2.15 Win at 8/1? Back over hurdles. Finally Vinnie Red should win the 1.45 Win.
Hi Josh / All
As promised please find below a list of “Super Stallions” for the AW for Winter 2016/2017 these are sires with a high SR for the given set of circumstances with a minimum of 4 runs and importantly multiple horses (i:e not 1 horse skewing the figures) :
Kempton
Dragon Pulse 7F – 4 runs, 3 wins, 4 places – 75% win SR, 100% place SR
Sir Prancelot 7F – 6 runs, 3 wins, 5 places – 50% win SR, 83.33% place SR
Dynaformer 1M – 9 runs, 5 wins, 7 places – 55.56% win SR, 77.78% place SR
Newcastle
Fastnet Rock 1M 2F – 7 runs, 4 wins, 5 places – 57.14% win SR, 71.43% place SR
Medicean 1M 2F – 4 runs, 3 wins, 3 places – 75% win SR, 75% place SR
Sea the Stars 1M 2F – 6 runs, 3 wins, 5 places – 50% win SR, 83.33% place SR
Wolverhampton
Rip Van Winkle 6F – 9 runs, 5 wins, 5 places – 55.56% win SR, 55.56% place SR
New Approach 7F – 5 runs, 4 wins, 5 places – 80% win SR, 100% place SR
Frozen Power 1M 1/2F – 8 runs, 4 wins, 5 places, – 50% win SR, 62.5% place SR
Frozen Power 1M 1 1/2F – 5 runs, 3 wins, 3 places – 60% win SR, 60% place SR
Fastnet Rock 1M 4F – 10 runs, 5 wins, 6 places – 50% win SR, 60% place SR
Chelmsford
Shamardal 5F – 12 runs, 6 wins, 9 places – 50% win SR, 75% place SR
Ad Valorem 6F – 6 runs, 3 wins, 3 places – 50% win SR, 50% place SR
Dandy Man 6F – 7 runs, 4 wins, 4 places – 57.14% win SR, 57.14% place SR
Street Cry 6F – 6 runs, 3 wins, 4 places – 50% win SR, 66.67% place SR
Sir Prancelot 7F – 4 runs, 2 wins, 3 places – 50% win SR, 75% place SR
Sea the Stars 1M 2F – 11 runs, 5 wins, 7 places – 45.45% win SR, 63.64% place SR
Cape Cross 1M 5 1/2F – 7 runs, 4 wins, 6 places – 57.14% win SR, 85.71% pl SR
Lingfield
Red Clubs 5F – 17 runs, 8 wins, 11 places – 47.06% win SR, 64.71% place SR
Rail Link 1M 5F – 7 runs, 4 wins, 5 places – 57.14% win SR, 71.43% place SR
Refuse to Bend 1M 5F – 4 runs, 2 wins, 3 places – 50% win SR, 75.00% place SR
Sir Percy 1M 5F – 5 runs, 3 wins, 3 places – 60% win SR, 60% place SR
Sir Percy 1M 7 1/2 & 2M – 6 runs, 3 wins, 5 places – 50.00% win SR, 83.33% pl SR
Dundalk
Dylan Thomas 5F – 7 runs, 4 wins, 4 places – 57.14% win SR, 57.14% place SR
War Front 7F – 18 runs, 9 wins, 16 places – 50.00% win SR, 88.89% place SR
War Front 1M – 9 runs, 4 wins, 6 places – 44.44% win SR, 66.67% place SR
War Front 1M 2 1/2F – 3 runs, 2 wins, 3 places – 66.67% win SR, 100.00% pl SR
The above gives us a good base to attack the AW and I’ll be primarily focusing on these throughout the rest of the AW winter season. To maximise its potential I’ll be using my fav staking plan which is 2% of “bank” on each selection to win with a £1000 starting point so first stake would be £20.00 and 2% thereafter win or lose….I’ll post up each selection as they arrive and the rolling total and the aim is to hit £10,000 by the end of April….Should be an interesting few months 🙂
I’d like to wish you all a very Happy Christmas and many thanks to Josh for all his hard work this year in putting together an excellent blog, always being upfront and with his high morals and integrity provides us with a platform where we can all improve and learn and to all contributors with their excellent insight….If there is 3 things I have learnt the most in this game they are Money Management, Money Management,Money Management, Get this right and it will definitely be a profitable 2017
All the best
Steve
Merry Christmas Steve, thanks for another great comment, and you kind words, much appreciated. I look forward to following those qualifiers with interest.
Cheers Josh
Cheers for those Steve. Suspect the £10k target may be ambitious, even with a progressive staking plan…but I hope you prove me wrong! Thanks to Josh, and all contributors, for making the blog a great read.
Hi Steve Merry Christmas to you and yours.
You do put up some terrific work….
Keep going.
Cheers and Best Of Luck.
Wow, some amazing SRs there. Looks very interesting. Certainly appears a must check list when considering a bet on the AW those venues/distances. Good luck 🙂
Thanks Steve for another great write up ,it is a pleasure to read such reports may i wish you all the best for 2017 and everyone else who reads this blog , not least Josh for producing it
George
Hi Steve
Merry Christmas
is there nothing for Southwell to be considered. I know the USA bred was doing OK but I think the plan has fallen away lately with everyone thinking they are a “good thing” to be backed….I did wonder for any soft ground sires will be better but I have no stats to check for results….thanks for these other sires to watch and best of luck for the season
Hi Norman, there was my own Southwell article I did a few days back that looked back at USA and a few others…
http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/12/13/southwell-all-weather-usa-breds/
Merry Christmas
Josh
Hi Norman
Southwell oh yes the biggest list of all focusing too much on Polytrack & Tapeta forgot about fibresand lol please see list below:
Southwell
Oratorio 6F – 4 runs, 2 wins, 2 places – 50% win SR, 50% place SR
Hard Spun 7F – 9 runs, 4 wins, 6 places, 44.44% win SR, 66.67% place SR
Speightstown 7F – 13 runs, 6 wins, 8 places – 46.15% win SR, 61.54% place SR
Cockney Rebel 1M 3F – 5 runs, 3 wins, 3 places – 60.0% win SR, 60.0% place SR
Giants Causeway 1M 3F – 14 runs, 6 wins, 7 places – 42.86% win SR, 50.0% pl SR
Librettist 1M 3F – 4 runs, 2 wins, 4 places – 50% win SR, 100% place SR
Street Cry 1M 3F – 10 runs, 4 wins, 7 places – 40% win SR, 70.00% place SR
Footstepsinthesand 1M 4F – 4 runs, 2 wins, 3 places – 50% win SR, 75% place SR
Patoral Pursuits 1M 4F – 5 runs, 3 wins, 4 places – 60.00% win SR, 80.00% pl SR
Redoutes Choice 1M 4F – 5 runs, 3 wins, 3 places – 60.00% win SR, 60.00% pl SR
Mizzen Mast 1M 6F – 8 runs, 4 wins, 5 places – 50.00% win SR, 62.5% place SR
Shirrocco 1M 6F – 4 runs, 2 wins, 3 places – 50.00% win SR, 75.00% place SR
Street Cry 1M 6F – 10 runs, 5 wins, 6 places – 50.00% win SR, 60.00% place SR
Teofilio 1M 6F – 5 runs, 2 wins, 3 places – 40.00% win SR, 60.00% place SR
Dynaformer 2M – 2M 2F – 12 runs, 6 wins, 10 pl – 50.00% win SR, 83.33% pl SR
Oscar 2M – 2M 2F – 7 runs, 3 wins, 4 places – 42.86% win SR, 57.14% place SR
Cheers
Steve
Merry Xmas Josh and everyone else. Looks a cracking day of racing. Whilst there is so much racing at least we get 3 days to look over the cards. I’ve narrowed it down to just the 8. (They are not in order of preference barring the NAP)
NAP Hartside Wetherby 15:35-Visor back on 2/4, 3p wearing it; always needs his first run back so he ran a pretty solid race in a class 3 2 starts ago; LTO he ran in a class 2 so was never going to amount to much, he is 4lbs below his last winning mark (went a close 2nd off 7lbs higher) and is 2/8, 3 places at the track which improves which improves to 124451 if you remove the 2 runs of a 150+ break. I’d be disappointed if he didn’t make the frame at least
Instant Karma-Kempton 15:45 Has a 1112 record in handicap hurdles including getting just touched off in a listed race LTO over a too short a trip. That race has worked out with the 3rd just losing out in the Greatwood (Grade 3), the 4th coming 3rd last weekend in the Wessex Youth (Grade 3) and the 5th winning a £62k class 2. On top of that they’ve managed to book Barry Geraghty for the ride. This is a deep enough race where something could improve but he bring by far the best form to the table.
Chtibello-Kempton 14:40-have had a small bet as he looks over priced. His trainer has spent the last year saying how much better he is over good ground (1 length behind Altior last year) yet he pitched him in on heavy and he duly obliged LTO so I would mark that run up considerably. He was thought to be a 155+ horse last year so he could easily have improved enough to beat the 3 ahead of him in the market who all have questions.
Bastien Fontwell 13:10-Form of both his bumper runs have worked out incredibly well. Only 5 lengths behind Robin Roe who is 2nd fav for the Neptune (top 5 have gone 6/11, 7 places) in his 1st run and 2nd/3rd/4th from his second won have all won since (4th was over 10 lengths ahead of 2 further winners). King is 3/10, 5p in non-handicap hurdles here in the past 2 years and the jockey has been combining well with the trainer and they have gone 3/8, 6p in the past 3 months.
Venetian Lad Fontwell 13:45-returns to his beloved Fontwell after running a solid race LTO. Is now 1lb below his win in April this year. I am pretty certain he won’t be out of the front 3 but given the place odds we have to go win only but couldn’t pass him up at the price.
Itoldyou Fontwell 15:25 Another lover of the track and he is 3/5, 4p at the track; he has come 1st and 2nd in class 5 chases and is 2/3, 3p at the distance. He is also top of the HRB ratings. He went very close LTO so back returning to form. Now 18lbs below his last winning mark (25lbs including jockey claim). Only concern is the trainer form or else would be having a big e/w bet although I would expect him to go pretty close.
I am also having bets on Big Water in the 14:45 at Sedgefield and Outlaw Torn in the 14:35 at Wolverhampton but I’ve run out of time.
Paddy Watch
Been a bit of a famine recently,but a nice priced winner would turn that around,Paddy has a runner for Colin Tizzard tomorrow,i am just having a bet for interest on Royal Vacation e/w at 40/1.kempton 2.05,no reason why he should even figure in first 3 home,but its racing and anything can happen,enjoy the racing everyone
Happy days! I threw a fiver on in running.
Cheers Gerry! Hope the faller is alright tho 🙂
Seasons greetings to you Josh, Thanks to you and all the great menbers that make this blog so good. Not sure how you all find the time, but much appreciated, will be backing your tips and four more at 5.1 or more, good luck everyone. It’s winter here in Thailand and it’s 28 degrees, 7 hours in front so gives me more time to study.
Cheers Roy, Thailand sounds superb! Good luck today. Josh
The best two from the Moore stable today are Darebin, 2.15 FP and Reblis, 3.35 FP.
The stats re age are against Cue Card but If Thistlecrack can jump at speed he must take some beating. Surely Yanworth has to win to run in the Champion hurdle?
I like Chakisto each way at 7/1 in the 1.40 Win. Also Mr Mix, 2.15 Win.
Good luck today.
Good luck Martin – yep some cracking racing. I think it is all about how Thistlecrack jumps at the speed he will be going here in the final 4f, with CC chasing him down – it could be his jumping gets better the quicker he goes, and that could be some sight! Or he will unseat near the business end and do a Don Cossack. Only one way to find out, may the best horse win and them all come back safe and sound. It was just about time we had a new superstar thought, one to look forward to everytime he turns up for the next 2/3 years or so..
Good luck to all of our blog contributors…best wishes for the year ahead.
Well done Josh for the hours of work put in,
But a simple wish that we all enjoy our chosen choice of enjoyment.
The Sport of Kings.
Best wishes everyone.
Hi Josh / All
A super days racing here and in Ireland and a lot to get stuck into…A bit of focus on Kempton and some fun plays today with a placepot to boot..
12.55 – Jenkins 1.59
Very Short but should just have to much toe for these
1.30 – Max Ward 8.0
Lightly raced for Charlie Brooks off the course 2 years and sent to Tom George who sent him chasing on his return winning well at Huntingdon before being well beat in a better race at Sandown, Up in trip today I can see this one improving steadily under the George camp.
2.05 – Might Bite 9.0
N Henderson does well with all his chasers here 21, 9, 11 in the last 2 years and this lightly raced fellow looks a typical improving chaser for the camp already shows he likes the track with an 8 length hurdle win here and his sire scorpion has a 30% SR over trip & ground.
2.40 – The New One 2.64
Yanworth has 10lb to find on official figures and undoubtedly has the potential but The New One looked as good as he as ever done first time out jumping superbly and I can see l him battling off Yanworth here if in the same mood.
3.15 – Thistlecrack 2.38
Great race between the 2, I do feel though that Cue Card is better on a more galloping track despite his win here last year and around here it has to be Thistlecrack for me.
3.45 – Lisheen Prince 7.2
A competitive race but this one stands out on the sire stats with 31.58% win SR at the track, distance, going, lightly raced improved and won for the step up in trip last time out loads of improvement likely under the top combination of Hobbs /Johnson.
Good luck with all your selections today
Cheers
Steve
That 40/1 winner wont go down on the paddy stats
Why not? I would count him wouldn’t you? qualified against your rules, nice EW price, and as you said ‘anything can happen’ Well done. Reader just emailed saying they had £20 EW on so you have made someone rather happy, well done!
Josh
Onward and upward after these 3 again today Josh
God they were poor. A shocker! Still too many of those days for my liking! ‘again’. (albeit will always be more days like that, but truly awful today) Maybe take next boxing day off. Amidon the most shocking. Would be ok if hadn’t dodged a couple recently. Never mind. Onto tomorrow.
Blimey Geroid…..
U couldn’t have summed that up better if you’d written that piece AFTER the race!!!!
Well done to u-but for me it was nothing but pain as I backed Might Bite….!
Cruised through the race and jumped pretty well all through and could have just been steadied into the last-but the jockey clearly had other ideas!!!
One that got away for me-absolutely gutted!!!
Also-well done Nick-brilliant write up on Bastien….
Called that spot on-and I’m kicking myself now after not backing it myself-given that he had a lot in his favour judging from your write up!!!
Onwards and upwards….