TTP Jumps Notes: BOXING DAY 2016 (COMPLETE)

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Various things to note below, esp if you are a new member. You can jump straight to the  Qualifiers and then the Ratings Pointers (right at the bottom) if you wish… (but I would read if new) 

Firstly welcome to any new members. A couple of things to note..

• I know I can drone on, but please do read the welcome email you should have received and the link to a welcome note. Hopefully those notes explain a few things and may preempt any questions- albeit if you do have any, however minor they may seem, do post a comment on here.
• The selections for Boxing Day, and then the ‘ratings pointers’ will follow ASAP and I expect to be completed by 12pm Saturday at the latest. I try and use the brackets in the post title to keep you updated as a post progresses. So, above you can see (upd1) that may change to (quals) at some point, to denote Qualifiers have been posted, or (Quals+ratings) to denote qualifiers and ratings pointers have been added. I DO NOT email out daily to members. All content is delivered via the blog. You know there is no more content to be added when (COMPLETE) is added to the blog post title. All important information – qualifiers and ratings pointers, are added as soon as I can the day before. I do not put up the ‘complete’ sign until the morning of racing, no later than 10am. This just allows me some time in the morning in case I miss a qualifier – or a kind Member who also checks the stats pack- informs me i have missed a qualifier! Human error can creep in but that doesn’t happen very often, touch wood.
• IF you stay beyond the trial period an ‘Exclusive Downloads’ section will appear to the left hand side and that is where you can access the actual stats packs if you ever want to consult them, inc the AW Stats Pack. I only post qualifiers from the Jumps stats pack on here.

PLEASE ALSO NOTE: (lots of ‘notes’ today!) That blimey there is a lot of racing on Boxing Day! And plenty of handicaps, which means clearly a unique, one off, ridiculous number of qualifiers (yes far too many, I know that, you know that,we all know that 🙂 )  – in fact there are 48 in total i think. Blimey. Usually the ‘core stats’ would highlight 3-7 on a weekday, around 20/25 on a Saturday. (and those numbers are in part why I was desperate to find a way to shortlist etc, and now we have the ratings pointers) Boxing Day is like two Saturdays. Now, if you are a systematic bettor of all stats, you can see why starting with small stakes is advisable,and building up your bank- but at least if you started on Monday, Hartforth at 50/1 has paid for your Boxing Day outlay! The RATINGS POINTERS – so far HorseRaceBase… ratings are up and that is a ‘shortlist’ of 18- normally that would be 3-5 on a weekday, around 6-8 on a Saturday- well, in the first 14 days or so anyway that has been the case. Quite frankly it’s a good job it’s not Boxing Day every day! But, in the context of the ‘ratings pointers’ having won any followers 74 points, that is manageable. 

Personally, I will be focusing on the Ratings Pointers, and having my usual TTP point on them all, £10, price allowing. I may look to have another 1/2 point on the top rated runners. But, that is just me.  (I personally  rarely bet on anything under 5/2,3/1, but ‘value’ is in the eye of the beholder and the shorties on the ratings pointers may be worth following) There WILL BE winners not on the pointers at some point, maybe even Boxing Day – indeed since the ‘ratings pointers’ were introduced both Eastlake (33s) and Heartforth (50s) have won not highlighted by the pointers. If you ignored recent form you could actually make a case for both of them, ie ‘if they ran to their best they would out run those odds’. So, I will have a glance and see if there are any ‘monsters’ not on the ratings that I may have a dabble on. ‘Just in Case’. If the first 14 days are an indication, the ratings pointers will lead to a much bigger ROI than just following all the core stats blind, a much bigger win SR, which means shorter losing runs, and a more manageable list of bets on a normal day. 

As always, if you have any questions/queries, do fire away. This is a long term approach that looks likely to work very well over time. All of those below may lose, you and I should be prepared for that, and should bet accordingly. If that means starting with £1 / £2 bets on the ratings pointers for example, so be it. I would set aside at least a 100 point bank for the ratings pointers  – you and I know most of us never normally do that with something new, as we never think that kind of bank will come under threat! But it might, and having it will make your experience more enjoyable and ensure you give this approach a fair crack of the punting whip.

Enjoy…

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BOXING DAY QUALIFIERS

Note: The ‘code’ in brackets refer to the section of the stats guide that the horse qualifies again. Each track split into 2 sections, ‘General Race Types’ (all hncps, hncp hurdles, hncp chases, NHF) and Micros (trainer jockey combo ‘TJC’, class, distance,going,horse runs season/90 days, hncp debut etc)

An example for Warwick can be found HERE>>> if that helps. (those that stay beyond trial will get the main guide that all qualifiers derive from) These stats only focus on ‘standard’ handicaps, NOT selling handicaps, novice handicaps, etc , + National Hunt Flat Races. No other non handicaps. There is a Bonus section also that covers Ireland and Novice Handicap Chases.

MARKET RASEN

2.20 – Wilton Milan (all hncps) UP

3.30 – Cobra De Mai (all hncps) UP

SEDGEFIELD

12.00 – HI Bob (all hncps) UP

1.40 – Alchimix (hncp chase) 2nd 

2.10 – Four Mile Beach (all hncps) UP

2.45 – Gold Chain (hncp hurdle) UP / Bruce Almighty (micros – horse runs this season) 3rd 

3.20 – Helmsley Lad WON 11/4 / Fleminator (both NHF) UP

FONTWELL

12.05 – Mrs Burbidge (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 3rd / Shalianzi (hncp hurdle + micros… class) UP

1.45 – Bishops Court (all hncps) WON 11/4  / Bertenbar (hncp chase) 3rd

2.15 – Disputed (hncp hurdle) 3rd  / Dare Bin (micro – age) UP

2.50 – Act Now (all hncps) 3rd / Loves Destination (hncp hurdle) UP / Lapalala (micro – going IF GOOD – DNQ / La Paimpolaise (micro – age) UP

3.25 – Reblis (micro – horse runs this season) UP

WETHERBY 

1.50 – Ballyculla (all hncps + Micro – runs 90 days,0) UP/ Our Kaempfer (hncp chase) UP

2.25 – Ben Enfant (all hncps+hncp hurdle) UP / Lough Salt (all hncps) 3rd / Nautical Nitwit (micro- TJC) UP / Cracking Find (micro – age) UP

3.00 – Lyvius (micro- horse runs this season) UP

3.35 – Cactus Valley (all hncps+hncp hurdle) UP / Pongo Twistleton (hncp hurdle) UP / Lady Buttons (micro – TJC) UP

HUNTINGDON 

12.15 – River Intrigue (all hncps) UP / Monkhouse (hncp hurdle) UP

1.20 –

Bennachie

Knights Reward H3 / G3

(both micro – going IF SOFT- DO NOT Qualify)

1.55 – Supply And Demand (all hncps) UP

3.05 – Yukon Delta (all hncps) UP / Boss In Boots (micro going IF SOFT)

3.40 – Linehall (NHF) UP

WINCANTON 

1.05 – Dusky Lark (hncp chase) 2nd 

2.15 – TheEagleHasLanded (hncp hurdle) NR /  Mr Mix (hncp hurdel) WON 11/4 / Onefitzhall (hncp hurdle + micro class) UP / Ruacana (hncp hurdle) 2nd / Theatrical Star (micro – h runs this seaon) 3rd

3.25 – Dawson City (all hncps) BD / Hollow Blue Sky Refused (all hncps+ hncp chase) / Bears Rails (hncp chase) BD  (race void)

KEMPTON

3.45 – Omessa Has (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro… H runs this season)  / Vicenzo Mio (micro going IF good + 0 runs 90 days) UP

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BONUS

Ireland… NONE

Novice Hncp Chases…

1.30 Kempton – Max Ward (H3 – HorseRaceBase Top 3 ratings) UP

RATINGS POINTERS 

Note: these have shown remarkable consistency in the first 14 days with a 35% win strike rate and 59% win/place strike rate. That is based on backing qualifiers multiple times- ie, if a horse is in HRB top 3 and Geegeez Speed Top3. How you approach any content on these pages is up to you. As I continue to stress, the point of any trial period is for you to take your time and asses how best to approach the content. I endeavour to publish results weekly,full transparency, to help you with such decisions. Next week at some point I will provide an update on the Ratings Pointers. 

HorseRaceBase 

Top Rated

12.05 – Font – Mrs Burbidge – UP

2.15 – Font – Disputed – 3rd 

2.50-  Font – Loves Destination – PU

3.05 Hunt – Yukon Delta – UP

1.05 – Winc- Dusky Lark – 2nd

Top 3 (so in effect 2nd or 3rd rated,in addition to those above)

3.30 – MR – Cobra De Mai UP

12.00 Sedg – Hi Bib – UP

2.45 – Sedg – Gold Chain – UP

3.20 – Sedg- Helmsley Lad WON 11/4 / Fleminator UP

1.45 -Font – Bertenbar UP

2.15 – Font – Darebin – UP

2.50 – Font – Lapalala (technically a non qualifier due to going,whatever he does- I backed him yesterday so I hope he wins, but if so wont count in results – this can happen with the ‘going’ stats – they do win when ‘non qualifying’ as they are not based on the horse,and with this one, the ground probably wont be reason he loses,if that is the case) 

3.25 – Font – Reblis UP

3.40 – Hunt – Linehall- UP

2.15 Winc – Mr Mix WON 11/4 / Onefitzhall UP

3.25 Winc – Dawson City – BD

Geegeez Speed Ratings 

Top Rated

3.30 – MR – Cobra De Mai – UP

2.45 Sedg – Bruce Almighty- 3rd 12/1 

1.45 Font – Bertenbar – UP

2.50 Font – Lapalala  (DNQ, note as above) 

1.50 Weth – Ballyculla- UP

Top 3 

12.05 Font – Mrs Burbidge – 3rd 

1.45 Font – Bishops Court – WON 11/4 

2.15 Font – Disputed – 3rd 

2.50 Font – Act Now – 3rd

3.25 Font – Reblis – UP

2.25 Weth – Lough Salt- 3rd 

3.35 Weth – Pongo Twistleton – UP

3.05 Hunt – Yukon Delta – UP

1.05 Winc – Dusky Lark – 2nd 

2.15 Winc- TheEagleHasLanded NR / Mr Mix WON 11/4 / Theatrical Star 3rd 25/1

3.45 Kemp – Vincenzo Mio – UP

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FINAL NOTE

The ‘bold’ above indicates horses that qualify on both ratings sets, and that is for your convenience/to track/use as you see fit. There are 9 of those. The ’74 points’ profit figure for the ratings from the past 14 days is based on backing all ‘ratings pointers’ however many times they qualify (once or twice- ie once against each ratings set) On that basis there are 36 bets above- what a lovely shortlist! (gulp, rest assured it isn’t like that everyday)

On a ‘normal day’ I would add some ‘notes’ (flick through old posts for examples) whereby I would highlight any trainer form of note, and some comment on the horse’s profile- usually along the lines of whether they are ‘unexposed/could be anything types’ and therefore hard to rule out (‘trust the stats’) or if more exposed whether that may or may not be suited to conditions based on their history.

Given the number of qualifiers, and the time of year, I hope you will excuse me from not doing this for Boxing Day.

There are 3x 3m+ handicap chases that I would rather focus on ‘tipping’ in as well as the Welsh National in which to turn my attention. When it comes to rating pointers my subjective views do not really add to the mix as I just will never be able to better those % that they are throwing up. On recent evidence I won’t ever be attempting to put yourself, or myself, off a ratings pointer horse.

Have a great Christmas and with any luck there are a few winners above.

Seasons greetings,

Josh

p.s While the complete sign is up, do check back Boxing Day at some point – I don’t think I have missed any qualifiers but if any of you good stats readers think I have, do post a comment and I will rectify. Also- with the ‘micro’ qualifiers that are based on the going, I will go with whatever it is officially on the morning of racing and that will determine whether they ‘officially’ qualify or not, regardless of what the whether then does. Hope that is clear. 🙂