The All-Weather is an unnatural hunting ground for me albeit the stats pack I researched has been churning out the odd winner. I once read, (a few years ago I think) a piece by Matt over at Geegeez.co.uk I think, about USA breds on Southwell’s all-weather surface. Given they have a meeting today, it was a good excuse to have a dive into my HRB account. I remembered something about ‘unexposed’ USA breds on the surface and with that in mind…
I have looked at racing at Southwell from the start of 2013 onwards.
All USA bred runners, all races, are: 763 bets / 138 win / 287 win/place / +44 SP / AE 1.02
Solid enough. I am sure some of you system building fans may use that starter set to find even more gems.
I have started with handicaps, as I usually do and have come up with the following…
- Southwell All-Weather
- Handicaps (standard – not nursery or maiden or claiming etc)
- USA Bred
- Age 5 or older
- Horse Runs At Track: 0-2 only
- 14/1 or shorter SP (guide, 16//1 + within this angle 0/22,1p)
NOTE: Within those rules horses moving up in class could be treated with some caution- 1/15,7p, -12 SP. Removing those improves the stats further albeit the fact 50% have won or placed suggests they may go into profit at some stage.
Those with 3+ runs at the track within those rules are 32/184,76p, 17% sr, -24 SP, AE 0.96
3+4 year olds are: 25/132, 56 places… -21 SP, AE 0.88 . I am not sure whether that is to do with the strength of the horses or the fact USA breds can tend to mature later in general. No idea, but those are the stats and there will be some logic there somewhere.
As you will see there appears to have been a marked drop off with numbers of qualifiers over the last two years. I am not sure if this is just the random cyclical nature of breeding etc or what. Clearly there have been fewer USA breds in that age bracket running at the track. I suppose Southwell AW track was closed for a period of time this year also, and that will have had some impact given there was no racing! I am unsure how many meetings were lost but I think it was quite a few.
Anyway, this micro angle looks worth keeping an eye on moving forwards. It is saved in my HRB account and I will try and remember to post qualifiers to we can see if 2013/14 can be repeated- which would be fun.
There are no qualifiers today that I can see, nor are there any for the angle below…
Staying with Southwell AW Handicaps, and the 0-2 track runs rule, I thought I would see what sires stood out, not just USA breds. I used a minimum of 5 winners as a guide, a decent win SR, profitable and a decent AE figure… (no odds caps, or distances, or class settings etc)
The results since the start of 2013 as follows…
Some caution as to the results this year. I don’t think I would necessarily dive in and start following those systematically but for those of you who like betting on the sand, it may be a useful guide. It will be interesting how the portfolio perform over the next 12 months or so.
I hope you have found that of some use/interest.
AW STATS PACK…
At the link below you can get your free AW stats pack if you haven’t got it already, and also find out how you can buy the full version for just £7 (+vat) with £1 of every sale going to the IJF. Those stats have been finding a few decent priced winners including a 6/1 shot yesterday and recent winners at Dundalk priced 12/1, 16/1 and 18/1.