WELSH NATIONAL: TREND/STATS/POINTERS (free)

Nothing beats looking at some trends/stats for the Welsh National on a Christmas morning! 2 coffees down. In truth if I don’t do this now I don’t know when else I will squeeze it in and you and I both know I rather enjoy a bit of stats digging, whatever the day. 

There are some great pointers for this race and we shall see if they can help up ‘shortlist’ this year…

19 renewals, 329 runners, 72 placed horses…

19/19 Top 6 LTO

  • Fell: 0/14,0p 
  • PU: 0/28,2p 

18/19 – 20/1 or shorter SP (22/1+ … 1/111,14p) 

18/19 Age 9 or younger 

  • 10+ … 1/80,10 p (Mountainous last year, lightly raced/previous winner/Lees) 

 

19/19 Carried 11-6 or less on back (exc claims) (11-7+ = 0/38,7p) 

15/19 Carried 10-00 to 10-9 

  • OR 153 + … 0/17,4p 

 

19/19 ran 16-60 days ago 

  • 1-15 days: 0/31,3p 
  • 61+ days: 0/26,0p 
  • 0 runs 90 days: 0/19,0p

 

GB Bred: 3/73,12p (poor compared to IRE/FR) 

 

19/19 Had 0-3 handicap chase wins

  • 4 or more: 0/48,6p 

 

15/19 had RUN over 3m5.5f or further before 

  • 4/124,25p had not, vs 15/205,47p that had

 

IF HEAVY GOING

  • 11-00 or more (exc claims) : 0/50,10p 

***

Track Last Time Out

  • Chepstow: 8/49,19p, 16%, +76 points (not a bad long term ‘race micro!’) 
  • Chelt: 3/49
  • Haydock/Sandown (2x each) 
  • Newbury: 1/51, 11p
  • Exet: 0/16,1p 

Trainers

  • ‘Team Lee’ (Richard+Kerry): 3/9,4p 
  • Nicholls: 2/33,12p
  • V Williams: 2/14
  • 2x winners: Jonjo + NTD
  • 1x winners: King / Hawke/M Scudamore/Daly / Hobbs
  • D Pipe: 0/13,1p (Marting was 0/24,1p) 
  • E Williams: 0/6,3p 
  • P Bowen: 0/9,0p 
  • C Tizzard: 0/8,0p 

***

We shall see what they throw up in a couple of days time. 

Josh 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • The only one I would add on there is 17/19 had 1 or 2 runs this season favouring the 2 to 1 on a 12 to 5 ratio.

    Nick Mazur 25/12/16 6:39 PM Reply


  • Hope you had a good Christmas Josh and all your family. For Boxing day I fancy Gold Present, Looksnowtlikebrian, Yala Enki and Better Days.
    Keep up the good work!! (I would have subscribed but we have had security issues with Paypal in the past.

    Matthew Roberts 26/12/16 10:07 AM Reply


    • HI Matthew, many thanks, hope you did too.
      Good luck with your fancies.

      Paypal… a few people have problems and there are always other options! I can set you up in the system if you wish, and come end 21 days if you wish to stay we can discuss non paypal option.
      Up to you. Feel free to email me – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk

      Good Luck today,
      Josh

      Josh 26/12/16 10:13 AM Reply


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