TTP Jumps Notes: Sat 22/10/16 (COMPLETE)

NOTE

There is a Saturday Stats/Trends post for 1.50 Chelts HERE>>>

There are a few free Trainer Track Profiles Reports around….

• A Taster Version: Click HERE>>>
• The Kelso Track Profile: Click HERE>>>

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Qualifiers against stats pack +Notes + My View

You know a post is ‘Complete’ when you read ‘COMPLETE’ in the post heading.

CHELTENHAM 

1.50

Any Currency (all hncps) NR

NOTE: trainer 0/5, 2 places last 14 days. This 13 yo is 2/10,5 places in chases on back of breaks 60+ days. Has made seasonal reappearance in Oct or Nov last three years and hasn’t run much of a race, seemingly coming on for the run. In Oct 2012 he did win his reappearance. On his second run of the season he has finished a close enough, 3rd, Won, 2nd. So, maybe one to watch NTO albeit he clearly isn’t getting any younger. Market may guide to fitness here but evidence suggests these days he may come on for the run.

Henryville (hncp chase) UP

NOTE: Fry’s are in good enough form…3/18,10 places last 30 days, 0/10,5 places last 14 days…running well without winning.

3.30

Dunraven Storm UP (all hncps+ Micros… Trainer/jock combo, + 90 days angle)

NOTE: Hobbs in form, 8/31,11 places last 14 days. Horse is 1/4,1 place over fences after 60+ days rest. Won on seasonal reappearance 2014, ran as if he needed it last year. On a career high mark in handicaps, 5lb above last win.

Owen Na View (all hncps) UP

NOTE: trainer’s horses are in form, no concerns on that front. Horse 0/6, 1 place C2, and I believe he was thumped in this race last year, for what that is worth.

4.05

Golden Doyen (all hncps+hncp hurdle) WON 11/1

NOTE: Hobbs again, same form stats as with Dunraven apply. Stable going well. Stamina and unknown/question. First run at trip. Assume Dickie would have had the choice….

For Good Measure 2nd 8/1(all hncps+hncp hurdle+Micros…Trainer/jock combo+ 90 days)

NOTE: Hobbs as above. Hobbs ‘only’ 1/25,5 places handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days here last 5 years. But in 2015+16 he has only had 4 such runners, 2 of them running credible 3rds in 24 runner races. He should be fit enough to compete if he is here to run his race.

Luccombe Down (all hncps) UP

NOTE: trainer continues in good form. Believe he is 4lb out the handicap. The run LTO may have suggested this level could be beyond him.

Listen And Learn (micro – class) UP

NOTE: Jonjo’s yard form is just hard to read these days and seems to have been the case for much of 2016- very in and out. If you like his chance/price I wouldn’t let his form put you off- some are winning, some running no sort of race. In the last 14 days they are running 19% above market expectation. His run LTO was the first at C2 and he didn’t make much impression. But you never quite know with these connections. Arguably he only has ‘summer’ form to his name.

5.15

Coroner’s Report (NHF)

NOTE: Curtis in decent form, 4/10,6 places last 14 days. No rules form to go on. Looks like he won his point LTO. She has won the bumper at this meetings a couple of times recently and backing her NHF runners here could pay in the years ahead. Looks like she saves the odd good one for the track and they are usually ready to go first time up. Clearly there could be some other stars of the future in here.

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KELSO 

4.15

Astrum (all hncps)

NOTE: McCain’s are going well…5/16.8 places last 14 days. Horse is only 3/35 in career, 1/19 in handicap hurdles. All best efforts at C5. He is 0/17, 4 places in class 4 races- 0/7,0 places so far in C4 handicap hurdles. Clearly a fairly weak race though.

Zaru (hncp hurdles+micro…trainer/jockey combo)

NOTE: Ewart in form, 2/6,5 places last 14 days. Race conditions fine for the horse. 7lb below last win. Clearly a questions as to fitness.wellbeing with 700+ days off and while lightly raced isn’t getting any younger. Ewart has had the odd winner with those coming of breaks more than 365 days. In handicap hurdles those stats are 0/10,3 places. In all handicap hurdles breaks of 121-365 days he is 3/40,10 places.

4.50

Donopollo (hncp chase)

Mister Don (hncp chase)

Proud Gamble (hncp chase)

NOTE: all Dobbin, who is 1/5,1 place last 30 days. Not much to read into yard form. Donopollo- CD winners, ran OK lto and maybe this stiffer track will suit more. Mister Don- unexposed chaser, won CD LTO, progressive. Proud Gamble…suspect Nichol may have had the choice between this one and Donopollo- Harding keeps ride on Mister Don having won on him LTO. Proud Gamble is 0/10,0 places going LH all races, inc 0/3,0 places over fences. Dobbin can ready them after a break albeit not prolific, 5/46,10 places handicap chasers 60+ days off. Mister Don was one such horse lTO

5.25

Heilan Rebel (micro – distance)

NOTE: trainer 1/8,1 place last 30 days, 0/5, 0 places last 14 days. Alexander 8/59,14 places with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days off last 5 years, interesting that 4 or those have been at Kelso, 4/10,4 places. Horse lightly raced, did nothing in non handicaps or on handicap debut LTO. But, still potential there and doubt have seen best of him yet.

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My View:

Note: This is only my view and some sort of guide I suppose. There is plenty of subjective judgement and occasionally I will get it wrong but hopefully you find it of some use…

Let’s start with those I am happy to have no money on, and won’t be…

1.50 – Henryville- I don’t know about this horse’s stamina- I am not sure he will get this trip around here and happy for him to prove me wrong. His trainer says 2m6f is his optimum trip. The weight trend for this race is also a negative. He could win but if he does it will be another clanger in a 3m+ chase from me! (BallyBen!)

3.30- Dunraven Storm- I can’t have him here. Surely , surely , something with younger legs, who is more progressive, will be taking this. There is a fitness question also and I can cheer this old rogue home without carrying any of my money. Owen Na View- I put him up in the Stats/Angles section on free posts when he won LTO, making all as hoped. I can’t see him being good enough to get involved here. I don’t think he has the class- or maybe the scope for this track. Plenty in here will have to fail for him to win for me.

4.05 – danger territory here… but I am leaving Luccombe Down and Listen And Learn – on what i can see I don’t think either will be good enough. I am sure BG would be on the Jonjo horse if he were more fancied. They both need to improve plenty. Golden Doyen- I am really on the fence with this one, maybe a saver bet – but I don’t like horses having a stamina question over 24f+ in general, let alone at this stiff track in a race that should be run at a good clip. But, that is just me. It maybe what he has wanted all along. (have my doubts)

Over to Kelso…

I am cautious not to dismiss any of these really- there are no horses you could be 100% confident leaving BUT…Astrum… I am not sure if he is good enough here. It is a weak race but his record at the class concerns me, as does his more recent jumps form. He needs more here. Any market support would make me a bit more interested.

Proud Gamble- I have a question over the break, his ratings rise (up a chunk and no claimer here) he is inconsistent, and of more concern is going left handed which he has to prove. Not impossible but I think I am happy for him to beat me.

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So, I think that leaves the rest…

For Good Measure…I won’t go mad but will have an EW nibble- I think they may be going chasing with him soon but he could run a good race here and is open to plenty of improvement in next couple of seasons.

I have had something on Coroner’s Report as I am happy that those stats will pay over time- they are very micro- but this looks like a race type she targets here. The fav looks very well fancied so EW may be wise, but we shall see.

Kelso- Zaru- I had a small nibble last night as thought market may be some guide- and some money is coming- it would be some performance to get him back here but it looks like he could be. 11/2 may just be short enough given his profile – I wont do EW as my theory is that if he is fit enough he should go close- if he needs the run he may just drop away. I could have that wrong.

4.50- Happy to have a dabble on Dobbin’s other two in this, with more preference for the last time out winner Mister Don. I see no reason why he shouldn’t give it a a good go at following up.

Heilan Rebel- hmmm…another where I am on the fence- very poor form and looks very weak in the market. I may not resist a 1/4 point EW or something to find out (my standard 1 point is £20)

I think that is the lot. I may be doing well to avoid that many losers but I am happy with those I have onside above.

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Showcase Notes

I missed a Nicholls 6/1 winner yesterday when first posting so apologies if you missed that, I will try and not do the same today but the Cheltenham card is starting to all blur into one!…

1.50 –

Cogry – (NTD age + career starts)

FullShift (Hendo – hncps)

Racing Pulse (all Curtis runners)

2.25

Balymalin (NTD distance/age)

Wholsestone (NTD distance)

3.00

Adrian Du Pont (Nocholls, hncps/distance)

3.30

Dunraven Storm (Hobbs, rest pattern)

4.05

For Good Measure (Hobbs, days rest)

Call The Cops (Hendo, hncp hurdles, distance move)

4.40

Qualando (Nocholls, Novice C, Distance)

5.15

Coroner’s Report (Curtis all, NHF)

Brahms De Clermont (Nocholls distance/non handicaps)

River Wylde (Hendo, class)

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I think that is the lot. Good luck with whatever you play today.

Josh