MEMBERS... Note…various posts are up which you can access from the Home Page , or ‘Exclusive Reports’ when logged in. There is a Saturday trends post, as well as Saturday’s main TTP Notes post with qualifiers and notes. Showcase notes and ‘My View’ will follow in the morning.
Members posts don’t get much better- Troika Steppes romping home at 25/1>14/1 was the highlight from only 3 main bets at Cheltenham from the TTP guide. Clearly tipping it would have been welcome but that is how it is going at the moment. The Showcase trainer meeting notes also highlighted four winners at Evens, 3/1, 6/1, 6/1 from 5 races touched on, plus a couple of 4ths at 16s, and some other placed efforts. A good day.
Cogry- 1 point win – 10/1 9/1 (general) UP- Fell first
Well when I don’t ‘tip’ they seem to win and when I do they inevitably lose a leg and trail in. I am very cold at the moment. My chasing losing run, points wise, is around 25 points I think so take this one with a pinch of salt. Tipping Troika Steppes at 25s- decent pointer from TTP guide- would have helped. But I didn’t.
Anyway, why Cogry?
There are a few good stats pointers for this race…namely being 2nd to 9th in weights, places at least once last three starts, 8+ chase runs, 17+ career runs. Being Top 7 in the market is a good sign in this race also. This race usually goes to one who has had a lengthy break.
Cogry ticks all the main boxes that I looked at and has a few things in his favour. NTD has won this race before, once in the last 9 years. The horse rarely runs a bad races over fences now, when not trying to take one with him. As a 6 year old last season he ran some crackers, including at Cheltenham’s November meeting when making his seasonal reappearance. He ran a decent fourth there. IF he is a1 here I would like to think he could get involved. There is a bit of pace on which he needs as he looks a stayer- but this race isn’t as deep as that one last year. There could just be plenty more to come from him this year and this price was worth a chance. He stays well. And he has track experience. Plenty in here have some stamina/recent form questions.
Negatives…well his jumping got better last year and the cheekpieces looked to have helped on his last run, retained here. There is of course the fitness question but we know NTD can get them fit. And then there is the ground. This may be too lively but I simply don’t know. He hasn’t raced on it very often and if he lines up I would like to think they think it is fine.
Those negatives maybe enough to put you off but I was happy to take a stab at 9s. He looks good on my stats/trends, is open to progress here, stays well and the course is no problem. We shall see if he can get me off the dreaded coldlist. There isn’t much else I would want to be on here.
Of The rest…
Well Coologue WON looks interesting. There could be more to come from him this season. He only just falls down on a weight trend but if handling this track (mainly raced on flat tracks) he could play a role. Stamina looks fine as do other race conditions. He is probably the one I fear most.
I have a few stamina questions over most of the other fancied ones. I am yet to be convinced that Henryville will stay 25f around here..BUT he has yet to prove that he won’t I may have him wrong. If he stays he could clearly get involved. Keltus won only an OK race the last day and again I suppose that proved he stayed but again a slight niggle over fences over 25f here. I also don’t know how good his form is. There could be better ones in here. But Nicholls can do no wrong at the moment. Full Shift has stamina to prove – and I really don’t want that as a question around here, especially on seasonal reappearance. If staying he could well get involved. Racing Pulse looks interesting but I have backed one Curtis horse with a similar profile already this season and maybe that has scarred me! There should be more to come at some point and clearly if he leaves his form behind from the back end of last season he could get involved.
So, it looks a tricky race with every runner having some sort of question to answer. Cogry should be fit- just a question of whether he is quick enough and has the pace to keep tabs on them. IF it is clear he is travelling within his comfort zone over the first third of the race, holding his position and jumping well, we should get a run for our money over the last couple.
to follow : Notes are here >>> if you wish to look etc…
1.50 Chelt- Cogry (no ticks- hope above he doesn’t need run, but he may)
2.25 Chelt- Ballymalin / Wholestone (both tick 1 run 90 days + rest pattern,both Qualify on NTD non handicap h micro also)
5.15 Chelt- Woodfort (no ticks)
3.30 Chelt – Casino Markets (october runner positive, 1+ run 90 days positive)
4.15 Kel – Zaru (all handicappers positive)
4.50 – Kelso -Donapollo (Kelso,C5,11-8+ all positives)/ Mister Don (as for Donapollo)/ Proud Gamble (Kelso,+C5)
5.25 Kelso – Wicked Games (Kelso, class,11-8+,dropping in class- ticks ALL the positives)
That will be all for today.