SAT Big Race Trends/Stats: 1.50 Cheltenham

NOTE: There is an old post HERE>>> which includes the checklist that I use when going through a trends race, and also a video as well of me using HRB.

 

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Onto Saturday and the race I have focused on is the 25f C2 Handicap Chase run at 1.50…

Cheltenham Showcase Meeting

1.50: 25f C2 Handicap Chase

9 renewals, 108 runners, 28 placed horses

Note: I  use HorseRaceBase for these stats and the stats refer to a horses run in the UK or Ireland. They won’t take account of any French runs say etc.

 

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Horse Age

  • 5/9 Aged 8 (5/32, 11 places)
    • Age 4-6: 0/14, 3 places
    • 6/9 Aged 7/8… 6/49, 16 places
    • 3/9 Aged 9+ : 3/45, 9 places

 

Days Since Run

  • 8/9 ran 121+ days ago
    • 2-25 days: 0/26, 6 places
    • 26-30 days: 1/5, 1 p
    • 121-150 days: 4/19, 6 places
    • 181-240 days: 2/33, 11 places
    • 241-300: 2/7, 2 places

 

Horse Weight (exc jockey claim)

  • 9/9 carried 10-8 to 11-7
    • 10-7 or less: 0/21, 5 places
    • 11-8 + : 0/23, 8 places… (11-9…0/6,5 places) (11-12…0/10,1 place)

 

Horse Official Rating

  • 8/9 OR 134-140
    • 8/35 runners, 10 places…+24 SP
  • OR 141+ : 0/29, 8 places

 

Season Runs

  • 7/9 had no runs this season
    • 4+ : 0/18, 1 place

 

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

  • 9/9 had run over 25f+ in career
    • 0/19, 3 places had not

 

Position In Market

  • 9/9 Top 7 in market
    • 8th or lower: 0/41, 5 places

Odds

  • 9/9 10/1 or shorter SP
    • 11/1+ : 0/54, 7 places

 

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 1/23, 2 places
  • IRE: 7/67,21 places
  • FR: 1/17, 5 places

 

Headgear

  • CP: 0/13, 0 places
  • Blinkers: 0/9, 1 place
  • Visor: 0/4, 1 place

 

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

 

  • 9/9 were 2nd to 9th in Weights (exc jockey claims)
  • Top weights: 0/12, 1 place
    • 10th or lower: 0/29, 8 places

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

  • 8/9 0 runs in last 90 days
    • 1: 0/17, 3 places
    • 2: 1/13,3 places
    • 3+ : 0/10, 1 place

 

H – Run (career)

  • 9/9 had 17+ career runs
    • 0-16: 0/33, 8 places

 

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 0-5 handicap runs: 0/23, 6 places

 

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 9/9 had 8-19 chase runs
    • 0-7: 0/25, 4 places
    • 8 chase runs only: 3/11,6 places…+8 SP
    • 20+ : 0/19, 2 places

 

H- Run (track)

  • 0: 1/23, 3 places

 

H- Run (Track-NH Code)

  • 8/9 had 1+ chase runs at track previously
    • 0 chase runs track: 1/32, 4 places

 

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 9/9 had placed on at least one of last 3 starts
    • Had not: 0/20, 2 places

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 9/9 had 4+ career wins
    • 0-3: 0/26, 7 places

 

H-Win (NH Race Type).

  • 0/1 chase wins: /19, 2 places

 

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 8/9 had 1-3 handicap chase wins
    • 0: 1/31, 6 places
    • 4+: 0/15, 1 place

 

Miscellaneous 2

Highest Class Run

  • Yet to run at Listed level + in career
    • 0/17, 5 places

 

Highest Class Win

  • 9/9 yet to win above listed level
    • Had won Gr3+ : 0/21, 5 places

 

H-Places (NH Race type)

0-2 places in chases (incs wins): 0/15, 2 places

 

Jockey Claims

  • 9/9 no jockey claims
    • 3lb: 0/7, 0 places
    • 5lb: 0/3, 1 p
    • 7lb: 0/3, 0 p

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

 (LR) Track

  • Cheltenham: 3/17,9 places
  • Sandown: 3/10, 5 places
  • 1 win: Southwell/Hexham/Uttox
  • Aintree: 0/9, 2 places
  • Market R: 0/12, 2 places

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • P Hobbs: 5/12, 6 places
  • 1 win: Mulholland/NTD/George/Jonjo
  • D Pipe: 0/7, 2 places
  • P Nicholls: 0/6, 0 places
About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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