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Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17
A couple of winners for the stats on Friday at 15/8 and Evens. Poor old WhatsUpWoody ran a cracking race but just got caught in the shadow of the post. Enjoyable and agonising to watch at the same time. But that is what it’s all about….
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TIPS
No Tips…But…
The Challenge Cup, 3.40 Ascot
A strict interpretation of what may be a winning profile, based on my 8 year stats of… Top 8 LTO/9-8 or less / OR 99-105 / 0-1 Distance wins / drawn 13 or lower / 0-10 distance runs / 0-3 handicap wins / never won at track / won C2 or above…
Well, I think that just leaves one… BURNT SUGAR… 25/1
That will do for a fun interest play for me! Actually, he has run in some decent handicaps, similar to this , in the past. And he has run well at the track also. Interesting enough without doing too much work…
Those that fall down on one of those/that you could forgive include the likes of Firmament- who ticks all the boxes bar rating/weight- but that is close by 1lb. Suzi’s Connoisseur just falls down on the draw, and that didn’t work out too well last week! But, those drawn 14+ are 0/70 odd, 2 places in last 8 years.
So, we shall see how Burnt Sugar, and maybe those other two, run here. I am not hopeful, or confident, but if you do decide to look at the race I hope that may help in some small way. Good luck whatever you play on.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing much today but a quick mention…
- Last October, as reminded by one of you a few weeks back, we looked at A Balding in October. Flat Handicaps, 16/1<, excluding a handful of tracks(Newmarket Rowley/York/Salisbury/Leicester).. he was only 1/13 last October but overall stats of 22/79, 35 places… +70 SP. His horses do particularly well on soft and heavy. DUNGANNON looks like being his only qualifier today in the 4.50 Ascot. Now 8lb below his last winning mark this CD winner may be worth a second glance in a fiendishly tricky handicap.
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MICRO SYSTEMS
Varian Fillies+Mares (25/1<)
2.00 Ascot – Imtiyaaz UP / Aljuljala NR
TTP FLAT: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
Redcar (12/1<)
5.00 – Flyboy
5.35 – Bond Bombshell
6.05 – Innoncently
Newmarket (16/1<)
2.15 – Emerald Loch UP
2.50 – Crowning Glory
3.25 – Sightline
5.10 – The Begum
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11 Responses
What do we think Of Dutch Law in the 3.40? 7F seems to be his distance, on turf he is 22111. 16/1 currently available.
I like to find a fresh horse at this time of year and possibly with a bit of scope to improve so I am on Remarkable + Squats and both as Anthony indicates seem to be well drawn middle to high – a fascinating race and very few you could safely rule out. What we don’t know of course is how much rain by off time.
the two I like in the 3.40 are BUCKSTAY dropping in class run well at the track before good jockey and RIGHT TOUCH is inform and I think both have got a good draw 12 and 14 way the races were Friday looks like middle to high is where you want to be and best pace is high as far as I read the pace best of luck with what ever your betting on today
Antony
Good luck everyone, it does look a tricky race and I have no strong views. The weather could be an issue. I have had £5EW on Burnt Sugar as my fun Saturday wager- he won’t mind cut. Anthony – I take your point about draw and pace- pace does seem to be high predominantly so those draw stats may be blown out of the water.
Hopefully one of us can find the winner. GL.
Tough day today,some nice bread and butter meetings tomorrow to get stuck into
Ascot 4.50 – Dungannon … think that was me asking about that a couple of weeks ago, many thanks for the heads up as i forgot about that, i will be on Dungannon. Thanks Josh
News from the Gary Moore camp – Antony, 3.30 FP, is expected to be better than this level. Generous Helpings has been going well at home, 1.50 FP. In the 2.20 at FP, Agincourt Reef is expected to win. Apparently it is quite wet at FP at present, as it is in my ”command centre” in the Garden of England!
Good luck.
i have backed antony not because of the name its come up as one of my qualifiers in HRB system I have got for chasers new to HRB its one of my first qualifiers so hoping for a good run
antony
Hi all
Newcastle is proving to be a bit of a puzzle with regards to sire stats a couple of excellent meetings followed by 3 mediocre ones including last evening with 19 selections over 8 races only providing 2 short price winners with 2 x 2nds & 2 x 3rds being the highlight….Its showing that with the limited data on offer at the moment with a lot of untested sires at given distance / class & surface the results are going to be volatile with that “unknown” factor…I think moving forward for Newcastle unless all sires have shown their hand for the above criteria then I will only post the outstanding stats for the given meeting….
Onwards to today and Wolverhampton this evening where the sire data is much more solid, I’ve introduced draw stats for this meeting as it can be significant over various distances and along with the best performing sires i’ve also included the worst performing:
BEST PERFORMING SIRES
5.40 Wolves – Race Time 100.00 (Street Sense 1 run, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 7 – 11.64%
6.10 Wolves – NO BET
6.40 Wolves – Suqoor 10.5 (Equiano 2 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 6 – 12.66%
6.40 Wolves – Secret Missile 34.0 (Sakhees Secret 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 4 – 13.14%
6.40 Wolves – Merdon Castle 25.0 (Acclamation 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 11 – 10.2%
7.10 Wolves – Hazell Berry 12.0 (Big Bad Bob 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 6 – 12.08%
7.40 Wolves – Volition 8.0 (Dark Angel 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 3 – 13.83%
8.10 Wolves – Moojaned 15.5 (Ravens Pass 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 10 – 10.26%
8.40 Wolves – Gladys Cooper 3.35 (Arcano 3 runs, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 6 – 14.43%
9.10 Wolves – Sakhastic 50.0 (Sakhees Secret 12 runs, 3 wins, 6 places) Drawn 5 – 14.08%
WORST PERFORMING SIRES
5.40 Wolves – Andys Girl 17.0 (Clodovil 9 runs, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 9 – 8.88%
6.40 Wolves – Ustinov 14.0 (Exceed & Excel 3 runs, 0 wins, 0 places) Drawn 9 – 11.88%
7.10 Wolves – Accladora 14.5 (Acclamation 17 runs, 1 win, 3 places) Drawn 13 – 4.76%
7.10 Wolves – Tennesee Rose 17.0 (Tagula 9 runs, 0 wins, 2 places) Drawn 8 – 12.44%
8.40 Wolves – Frivolous Prince 4.8 (Baltic King 7 runs, 0 wins, 1 place) Drawn 5 – 14.06%
8.40 Wolves – Pivotal Dream 11.5 (Excellent Art 14 runs, 0 wins, 2 places) Drawn 7 – 8.29%
9.10 Wolves – Just Fred 3.75 (Excellent Art 14 runs, 0 wins, 2 places) Drawn 9 – 8.89%
My best bets based on the above are 7.40 Volition 8.0 seems a bit big good draw and be surprised if out of the 3 & I’m interested in Moojaned 15.5 in the 8.10 ran 2 days ago at Brighton held up over a shorter distance off a slow pace which is not his bag finished a well beaten last of 10, He is much better setting the pace and battling them off and interesting that Mr Evans sends him out so quickly….
The worst bests or Lay bets for me would be Accladora 14.5 in the 7.10 poor sire stats over the distance and worst of the draw & similiar reasoning on Pivotal Dream 11.5 & Just Fred 3.75
Right thats all for me for today off to watch the Ryder Cup good luck with all your selections
Cheers
Steve
Thanks Steve,
I am glad that you provided a summary following your analysis. I will see how they go with interest.
You know new sprint star norwegian trainer won with his Easy Road 16:15 Ascot 10/1
previously won at his first start at Donc
Thanks Martin