What follows are the ‘Daily Jumps Notes’ taken from my new Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17 stats pack. These are the horses that qualify against the stats in this guide, for Fontwell.
At some point next week these ‘Daily Jumps Notes’ post will only be accessible if you join the Members Club.
You can find out more about this offer HERE>>>
The ‘Free Daily Posts’ will continue as they always have done.
Onto Fontwell…
FONTWELL
1.50
Code Of Law (12/1) (UP 16/1)
(all handicaps / handicap hurdles)
Note: trainer ‘in form’ 5/21, 10 places last 14 days | ‘only’ 4/41,14 places with handicap debutants last two years | horse takes a massive move in trip, flat bred. Interesting. But then again this is the trainer of The Young Master | The sire is 2/29,3 places with jumps horses aged 6-8 last two years | He is doing a couple of things differently at least.
Fountains Cider (18/1) (UP 20/1)
(all handicaps)
Note: trainer 1/4, 2 places all runners past 30 days. | 13/54,23 places with handicap hurdlers returning after 60+ days – those figures are 3/6, 4 places at the track | 4/14, 8 places with those making their second start in a handicap | Novice hurdle form can be ignored with this trainer really – maybe that last effort was down to the good to firm ground and they may have been waiting for softer ground since
2.55
Disputed (8/1) (UP 8/1)
(handicap hurdles)
Note: Trainer 0/6, 2 places last 14 days, before Thursdays runners. Trainer 4/65,12 places in handicap hurdles returning 60+ days off. 2/15, 3 places at the track with such types. Also 2/15, 3 places in class 2 handicap hurdles, yet to have such a runner here. Has the highest geegeez speed figure in the race, for what that may be worth. Disputed is the only class winner in the field, 1/2, 2 places in class 2. But, many in here are unexposed so maybe don’t read too much into that. Not many have run in many C2s.
Remiluc (16/1) (UP 22/1)
(handicap hurdles)
Note: As above really, in terms of general stats. Tom Cannon would have had the choice you assume. Whether that means anything who knows. Trainer only 2/32, 8 places with jockey on in handicap hurdles, but with only a 0.5 loss to SP, suggests the odd biggie has gone in. They are 2/6, 2 places at the track in such races, +25 SP (that makes the 2/32 stats a bit irrelevant now)
4.40
Highbury High (2/1)
(all handicaps)
Note: Trainer in form as with hurdle runner in 1.50. 38/148,74 places with LTO winners. Jockey 0/14, 1 place in career but a lot of those were on rags over in Ireland (50+ shots). This is his first chase ride under rules I believe. Must be ok to be at this trainer’s yard? Horse has top speed figure in race.
Unify (8/11)
(all handicaps/handicap chases)
Note: trainer’s LTO winner stats are fine as are those returning within 7 days. Does have stamina questions/to prove- now 0/6, 0 places around this distance. Possible they try and make all with this one, and if able to dictate steady pace may help with any possible stamina issues- still young, can’t say for sure he can’t stay this trip yet in my opinion.
5.15
Mistress Massini (NHF) (14/1) (NR)
I would argue this trainer has ‘back me blind’ stats here in NHF races. Well, that’s what I will be doing I think, price allowing. Not much to go on form wise! ALL of his NHF winners here have been 9/2 or shorter, indicating that the market is some sort of guide.
***
My View: The morning odds as of 9.30 suggest not many of these are fancied but we shall see how it pans out. Hopefully one of them can drop in and sometimes the market doesn’t have a clue. Most of them look ‘weak’ though at this stage, if you use lines of blue on oddschecker as a guide. I think Fountains Cider,(market may be informative in this race, for the other one also) Disputed (market may guide for his runners in that race) and Mistress Massini (market again as guide) probably look most interesting. The two in the chase are too short for me personally – given the jockey and likely race set up I think I would have preference for Unify (Honeyball could have a good day hopefully) I will sit this one out.
That will be all for Saturday. I hope some of that is useful. Of course do just ‘ignore’ my Notes if you wish, and go with the stats.
good luck
Josh
4 Responses
Hi Josh I haven’t commented for ages mainly due to not looking at the blog consistently during Aug/Sept. Looking at todays and few previous posts it seems to have changed a lot. I almost dont recognise it from the blog I was reading 12 months ago. I will reserve judgment in order to give the new look time but I have to say I saw nothing wrong with the blog 12 months ago so I suspect the new look wont be for me. I totally respect the fact that you are looking for paid up members more that casual readers like me so I cant moan too much. However a lack of results for recent months doesnt give much encouragement to subscribe (I may have missed them) Will keep a keener eye over the next few months tho as I believe you are more jumps man.
Hi Jim, thanks for you comment… let me unpack my response…
-the blog has changed aesthetically but not much else. It is an improvement, looks wise and usability.
-the latest blog post slots in the top left hand corner on the ‘home page’
-tomorrow’s post is here… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/09/30/saturdays-free-daily-post-update-1/
-these have a similar structure to what they have always had – tips / stats|angles of interest | jumps notes-which is new I suppose but just for the oct/Sept jumps trainers for now | micro systems
-the post you have commented on here is part of what Members will be paying for when I ‘pay wall’ them. What you see above are the ‘qualifiers’ from my new jumps stats pack, trainer track profiles jumps 2016/17. These posts are a new feature. Most Members have signed up for £10 per month which is fairly low risk – I am sure if these notes/the guide don’t deliver, and they are not happy with the other benefits, they will vote with their feet.
-the free content hasn’t changed much at all really. I have had an awful few months on the flat front, with the tips and the systems, and in truth have struggled to find an approach to content which people find enjoyable and useful on a daily basis. Again readers have voted with their eyes on that score…
-but, the reputation and enjoyment of this blog was built on the last couple of jumps seasons really and hopefully I can steer the ship off the rocks in the coming weeks and months.
-3m+ handicap chases will remain the tipping race of choice and they will remain free to access.
-It is a fine balance for me, between free and paid content, but my aim is to provide quality free content and there won’t be anything different on that front from last jumps season. I am going to research a new jumps portfolio of systems to trial live on the free daily blog posts , and those, along with the tips, will be the mainstay I think.
-of course there are always other bits and pieces, and free content which you can find in the ‘Free Reports/Systems tab at the top of the blog- included in that are a couple of guest posts if you scroll through.
So, hopefully, bar how the blog looks, you won’t notice much difference on the daily posts from when you last visited. They are a bit more structured and clearer to follow- I just need to start making the content more enjoyable/profitable!!
All the best
Josh
Hi Josh – I have no problems with the new blog look, what I am struggling with is, is the 2 posts for each day across the last 48 hours – Jumps notes and daily post…which one do I post on and double the amount of checks to get the latest point of view from yourself & other posters.
Post on the Free Daily Post blog post. This post here will be members only soon which should make it clearer. This post just has pointers from my stats pack on. You can comment where you wish.