What follows are the ‘Daily Jumps Notes’ taken from my new Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17 stats pack. These are the horses that qualify against the stats in this guide, for Fontwell.
At some point next week these ‘Daily Jumps Notes’ post will only be accessible if you join the Members Club.
The ‘Free Daily Posts’ will continue as they always have done.
Code Of Law (12/1) (UP 16/1)
(all handicaps / handicap hurdles)
Note: trainer ‘in form’ 5/21, 10 places last 14 days | ‘only’ 4/41,14 places with handicap debutants last two years | horse takes a massive move in trip, flat bred. Interesting. But then again this is the trainer of The Young Master | The sire is 2/29,3 places with jumps horses aged 6-8 last two years | He is doing a couple of things differently at least.
Fountains Cider (18/1) (UP 20/1)
Note: trainer 1/4, 2 places all runners past 30 days. | 13/54,23 places with handicap hurdlers returning after 60+ days – those figures are 3/6, 4 places at the track | 4/14, 8 places with those making their second start in a handicap | Novice hurdle form can be ignored with this trainer really – maybe that last effort was down to the good to firm ground and they may have been waiting for softer ground since
Disputed (8/1) (UP 8/1)
Note: Trainer 0/6, 2 places last 14 days, before Thursdays runners. Trainer 4/65,12 places in handicap hurdles returning 60+ days off. 2/15, 3 places at the track with such types. Also 2/15, 3 places in class 2 handicap hurdles, yet to have such a runner here. Has the highest geegeez speed figure in the race, for what that may be worth. Disputed is the only class winner in the field, 1/2, 2 places in class 2. But, many in here are unexposed so maybe don’t read too much into that. Not many have run in many C2s.
Remiluc (16/1) (UP 22/1)
Note: As above really, in terms of general stats. Tom Cannon would have had the choice you assume. Whether that means anything who knows. Trainer only 2/32, 8 places with jockey on in handicap hurdles, but with only a 0.5 loss to SP, suggests the odd biggie has gone in. They are 2/6, 2 places at the track in such races, +25 SP (that makes the 2/32 stats a bit irrelevant now)
Highbury High (2/1)
Note: Trainer in form as with hurdle runner in 1.50. 38/148,74 places with LTO winners. Jockey 0/14, 1 place in career but a lot of those were on rags over in Ireland (50+ shots). This is his first chase ride under rules I believe. Must be ok to be at this trainer’s yard? Horse has top speed figure in race.
(all handicaps/handicap chases)
Note: trainer’s LTO winner stats are fine as are those returning within 7 days. Does have stamina questions/to prove- now 0/6, 0 places around this distance. Possible they try and make all with this one, and if able to dictate steady pace may help with any possible stamina issues- still young, can’t say for sure he can’t stay this trip yet in my opinion.
Mistress Massini (NHF) (14/1) (NR)
I would argue this trainer has ‘back me blind’ stats here in NHF races. Well, that’s what I will be doing I think, price allowing. Not much to go on form wise! ALL of his NHF winners here have been 9/2 or shorter, indicating that the market is some sort of guide.
My View: The morning odds as of 9.30 suggest not many of these are fancied but we shall see how it pans out. Hopefully one of them can drop in and sometimes the market doesn’t have a clue. Most of them look ‘weak’ though at this stage, if you use lines of blue on oddschecker as a guide. I think Fountains Cider,(market may be informative in this race, for the other one also) Disputed (market may guide for his runners in that race) and Mistress Massini (market again as guide) probably look most interesting. The two in the chase are too short for me personally – given the jockey and likely race set up I think I would have preference for Unify (Honeyball could have a good day hopefully) I will sit this one out.
That will be all for Saturday. I hope some of that is useful. Of course do just ‘ignore’ my Notes if you wish, and go with the stats.