TO NOTE: I am off to Croatia Tuesday afternoon for a short break and return late on Saturday. I think that will be the last holiday I have before the end of April and it will be a clear run on here from when I return. I will have the lap-top and will update various systems bits but that will be it and I plan to do as little as possible on here while I am over there.
I am quite aware the last few months on here have been disappointing and I have struggled to find a settled approach. Clearly there is plenty for me to ponder next flat season and much to improve on. While time will tell if my tipping etc improves there will be more structure when the Jumps gets going properly. As well as any ‘system’ pointers the main focus will be 3m+ handicap/graded chases, C4+ and rarely will one of those pass without me having an in depth look. They will be the priority. I think the analysis side of things and the write ups, including for the Sprint Handicappers, is valued by you readers. I have always wanted this blog to be a mix of my own opinion- expressed in a way where you can also make up your own decisions/understand why I like something- and information that you can use yourself to profit. It is about getting the balance right and in the context of the time those various aspects take.
Ultimately if the blog isn’t enjoyable for you to read and isn’t helping you in some way make this game more profitable, there isn’t much point!
Anyway, plenty for me to ponder and your ideas/polite criticisms are always welcome.
Members… I will add up some notes/trends for the St Leger Festival today, before I head off.
Right, onto today…
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.00 Brighton: One Big Surprise –(NR) 10/1… Hughes is 5/15, 9 places with his handicappers here so far and also has one in the 3pm- but this is the one I like most. He is also 2/7,3 places in flat handicaps with this young jockey aboard. As importantly – the horse looks of some interest here and 10s just looks too big to me. I think there may be some cut but either way she is versatile ground wise so no excuses on that front. She is also now 0/5, 0 places on the AW so i am happy to put a line through the last run and she still ran OK. Before that she was just running very consistently. She was very unlucky at Lingfield where she got no sort of run for a long time and closed on them late. The Epsom run was ok in a C4 and she won a race before that. This is only her 10th turf start and there could be more to come. She is a hold up horse and will need some luck but importantly there looks to be some pace on paper here. The race is full of unexposed types and it looks a decent enough little race but 10s looks too big to me, with luck in running.
- 5.00 Brighton: World Record – 9/2 – WON (3.8/1 after 15p R4, 7/4 SP) looks ok here given the horse is 3/7, 4 places in C6 handicaps and runs over this trip, in a class 6, for the first time since his last win. He is also 2lb below his last winning mark. All wins at this distance and the trainer is 6/27, 11 places in handicaps here also- 4/11, 5 places over the distance. He is a CD winner also. It is the drop to C6 over 8f, and a return here, which most caught my eye. He also likes to lead/push the pace and while maybe not getting an easy lead should be in the right spot. The jockey is going well and should be full of confidence.
Those two pointers will do for today in this section.
Pam Sly: 4.20 Wind: All My Love (any odds) NR
TTP: MAIN SYSTEM BETS
4.00 Bright: Secular Society (any odds) NR
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
None. I have looked at the 5.20 but nothing at a price is jumping out at me. Nocturn is interesting on old form but looks desperately out of sorts. He gets a hood here today but I was also put off by trainer form figures of 0/33, 4 places in the last month. Interesting how he goes at 20s but a race I was happy to leave. May Rose looks a worthy fav.
‘One Track Trainers’
2.50 Windsor: Times Legacy (16/1<) UP
Secular Society – is Baker’s only runner at Brighton which is a positive also from the notes at the end of that research post HERE>>>
TRAINERS IN FORM
4.50 Windsor: Gold Return 9/2 (14,30,C5) NR