FREE DAILY POST: 04/09/16 (COMPLETE)

Post Complete…plenty of stats/starting points to get stuck into…

 

TIPS

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

I have clearly failed to settle on an approach for this section but maybe the 0-4 horses ‘shortlist’ approach may be the way to go for a while. In essence they are a collection of micro angles and with any luck, over time, they should come out in front if backing them all to win. Add in a bit of our own form/race analysis and with any luck you will all find it a useful addition/starting point to your own punting. The key for me is not to leave a monster on my longlist.

Alan King provided some cheer with a gutsy 6/1 winner and Squats ran OK for fourth also, 10/1 in the morning.

 

  • 1.30 Dundalk – Strategic Heights 10 /1 (UP 16/1, drifted and ran as such sadly, never in it) … trainer/jockey are 4/11, 5 places when teaming up here in handicaps. The horse looks well suited to race conditions and the horse is 3/7, 5 places over 5f at the track, in this class. A possible decent EW stab maybe. Draw stats are fine for this distance here, no worries on that front but clearly getting an early position will be important.
  • 2.00 Dundalk- Chiclet – (NR)  7/2, 4/1… one at the shorter end but the trainer is 8/20, 14 places with last time out winners. Trainer/jockey are also 7/24,12 places in handicaps here. This one bolted up LTO over CD but has gone up 10lb. That may well stop him but who knows. He will be at the front and in the right place to strike again.

 

That is the lot for Sunday.

 

JUMPS NOTES 

Sept/Oct Trainers

Lavelle

3.50 Font – Crimson Ark 5/1 …. (WON >3/1 SP) ticks the 1-5 career starts positive. The break is no concern as Lavelle can get them ready after a break of 90+ days but they are not profitable to back systematically on just that angle alone. The new Geegeez ‘trainer snippets’ information shows me that Lavelle is also 4/18,7 places with horses having their second start in a handicap, which this one is doing.

 

NEW…Race Meeting Notes

I am busy pulling together my ‘trainer track profiles: jumps 2016/17’ report and this year I have decided to provide a daily set of notes using this report. I will simply highlight all of the horses that the researched angles throw up.

In essence they are set of micro angles but should be used as a starting point I think. The stats look at handicap hurdles, handicap chases and NHF races. You have seen the Warwick example HERE>>>

These notes will be provided Monday-Saturday throughout the main jumps season (Oct-end April) and some Sunday’s. They will be posted during the afternoon before the next day’s racing to give you plenty of time to use them as you please.

These will be provided for the Members Club only.

With any luck they will be an essential starting point to your jumps punting but I have never done it before and only time will tell! This guide is a bit more focused than last season’s when it comes to the micro angles.

Anyway, below are the notes for FONTWELL. Clearly I won’t reveal the stats behind them, you will have to buy a guide for those 🙂 (Out by the end of September all being well) They may end up being useful for Placepot hunting also…

 

Fontwell Notes…

2.20 – Kayf Willow (9/4) UP

3.20 – Mrs Burbidge (13/8) UP | El Toreros (10/1) PU| Stoical Patient (8/1) WON >11/2

3.50 – Shalianzi (5/1) UP

4.50 – The Geegeez Geegee (4/1) 2nd  | Vexillum (3/1) NR

5.20 – Cautorillo (10/1) UP

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

2.40 York- Taraz (9/1<) DNQ UP

4.10 York – Ingleby Hollow (9/1<) DNQ UP

 

***

That will be all for Sunday. Plenty to get stuck into there and hopefully there are a few winners dotted around.

Good Luck

You readers have been in fine form of late…who do we fancy on Sunday?

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, A Balding seems in fine form at the moment, wasn’t there a end of season micro for him last season that didn’t perform that well, but in previous seasons was very successful from memory . He tends to have the type of horse that requires cut in the ground to be seen at their best doesn’t he? Just a thought.

    1. Hi James, I will have a look, I can’t remember if I had him as one to follow last year or not. And no idea about ground preference either in truth. Will see what I can find.

      1. Cheers Josh, I think he may have been an October trainer allong with Mick Channon. Balding/ Flat turf Hcaps/16/1 or </not Newmarket,Salsbury,York. It didnt perform that well last year as he was desperately out of form, but is entering this period of the year this time in fine form. I would be keen also on Mick Channon, but maybe thats for later

  2. I have had a small poke each way on his Manolito De Madrid at 10/1 in the opener at York. A 7 furlong race with a couple of newcomers and a couple whose pedigree suggests 7f in rain softened ground may not be ideal. MDM has been in better races than this, proven it gets the trip and one decent run in Good to Soft. Interesting that having qualified for a handicap mark they continue in Maidens.

  3. I like touch the sky put it up on gee geez forum from the hotform report 4.10 York up in trip crowely riding and well clear on Geegeez speed ratings dropping in class from hotform race currently 8/1

  4. I’ve noticed you’ve put up in the 3.20 stoical patient.The mare has no form whatsoever.It went to harry fry for 1 run last time and there was a bit of a punt.That went pear shaped from the 1st hurdle.The owner (Ashley Carr) ive been told likes a bet, and i believe they are going in again today.!st run for gary moore ,visored 1st time and back down in trip.The instructions are to lead and stay there. Apparantly, this will be the horses last race.I will be having a go at 8/1 and trade off in running as this horse has never completed a chase race.Who Knows

    1. yep – those pointers are not based on the horses form whatsoever, more Moore’s record there with that specific type of micro angle- Moore’s record with stable newcomers isn’t great 2/52 last two years. I have sat it out at the moment but money has come again and he is doing plenty of things differently. On all known form on paper I don’t think you would touch it, but we shall see!

      1. Gary Moore now 7/24,13 places…+44 SP with that particular handicap angle here in last three years. Decent enough. Looks like history may be a good guide for future with this angle.

  5. Kelvingrove has drifted to a barge in the 4.10

    went into my tracker LTO for having met congestion on the run in

    i thought it was a bet at 12/1 last night and is now 25/1 best! That drift might put you off, but Jonjo’s stable going well, Adam MacNamara booked and the horse goes well fresh so I can’t see why he’s friendless in the market

    1. Nope I wasn’t. Not a qualifier on any of my revised angles on that front so i wasn’t anywhere near him. You have a nibble?

      1. Just a small one. It was in your One Track Trainer one runner at a track. I will refresh your memory.

        The starting point:-

        Flat Turf Only
        Trainers Runners at Track in previous 730 days: 1 only
        2013,14,15,16-

        Trainer Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E

        Mohammed, Ismail 25 6 24 15 10 40 60 20.79 -1.75 1.42

        Stoical Patient and Argot same owner double I had them both but not a double.

        Good day overall.

        Mike

        1. Yep – the system is saved in my HRB account and he wasn’t technically a qualifier. He has had 3 runners at York in 2016 before today for example. So, he didn’t qualify on that angle.

          Anyway, sounds like you have had a good day and I bet he was fun to cheer home! Well done.

          1. Oops, I thought it was only if they had one horse at a track on the day, Ah well a good miss!!

            Mike

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