Some Trainer Stats/Analysis: OneTrackTrainers

Soon I will be dedicating all my attention to jumps research but before then I have done a bit of ‘flat’ digging…

One Track Trainers…

(you can get a PDF version of what follows,including the full tables, HERE>>>)

INTRO

My first foray into the online racing world was to launch a system called OneTrackTrainers in November 2014. This was a portfolio of trainers who appeared to do well when only sending one runner to the racetrack. In truth it did not perform as expected, hence why I never released it again. By the end of the first year it did just about scrape into profit (20-30 points from memory) but nowhere near the level I or subscribers expected. There were a lot of qualifiers- too many- and in truth it wasn’t the most enjoyable experience- a bit like many of my systems on the blog this year. Work to do.

So, that approach needed some work as does my general approach to system building I think. As a few blog readers have commented it is important to keep on top of any portfolio, constantly monitoring performance, reviewing, adjusting and binning where necessary. That is something I could improve on.

Anyway, I thought I would have another look at the ‘onetracktrainers’ idea/logic to see if I could find anything new- or think about it slightly differently.

The general approach of looking for trainers with only one runner at the track clearly didn’t work.

The logic still makes sense to me in terms of the economics of only sending one horse and it being an indication that it may have been well placed. But, my original thinking was maybe not specific enough, or ‘micro’ enough. Either way it didn’t work.

What follows is just some top level research and a possible starting point for further research either into the angles or any horses/races that they throw up.

***

To start with I thought I would have a look to see if there were any trainers who did well at tracks they did not target very often. So, an extension to some of that logic above…

With that in mind I have looked at trainers who have had only 1 runner at the track in the previous 730 days.

This would indicate that they don’t send runners to these tracks very often, but that they may mean business when they do. They may be sending more than one runner on the day…

Let’s start with those with 5 or more winners who have been profitable to SP…

The starting point:-

  • Flat Turf Only
  • Trainers Runners at Track in previous 730 days: 1 only
  • 2013,14,15,16-
Trainer Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
Cole, P F I 11 6 54.55 27.66 7 63.64 251.45 35.43 7.67 2.62
Furtado, Ivan 19 5 26.32 10 10 52.63 52.63 10.83 22.45 1.67
Gallagher, J 17 6 35.29 36 8 47.06 211.76 44.79 16.8 3.97
Hannon (Jnr), Richard 19 6 31.58 13.25 8 42.11 69.74 14.66 -0.49 1.82
Ivory, D K 16 5 31.25 22.2 7 43.75 138.75 24.03 3.02 2.13
Kubler, Daniel 26 6 23.08 15.01 12 46.15 57.73 25.76 7.29 1.78
Mohammed, Ismail 25 6 24 15 10 40 60 20.79 -1.75 1.42
Simcock, D M 11 5 45.45 12.23 6 54.55 111.18 13.06 6.2 1.75
Stoute, Sir Michael 11 6 54.55 3.99 6 54.55 36.27 4.73 -1.03 1.23
Walker, Ed 22 6 27.27 22.67 10 45.45 103.05 30.88 -0.02 1.29

 

You would expect that these horses are being sent to perform. Why else would a trainer go on such rare forays to certain tracks? It would indicate they have been well placed to me, a trainer searching for a decent opportunity at a track that they would rarely visit.

I think there is some logic there.

The odds would back this up, when looking at those trainers collectively.

Those going off over 16/1 are: 0/29, 4 places

A breakdown by trainer of those going off at bigger odds…

Trainer Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(Plc) MxOdd A/E
Cole, P F I 2 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 21 0
Furtado, Ivan 5 0 0 -5 2 40 13.47 151 0
Gallagher, J 5 0 0 -5 2 40 12.6 151 0
Hannon (Jnr), Richard 2 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 34 0
Ivory, D K 2 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 67 0
Kubler, Daniel 9 0 0 -9 0 0 -9 67 0
Mohammed, Ismail 3 0 0 -3 0 0 -3 26 0
Walker, Ed 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 26 0

 

Clearly we are dealing with small numbers here but the market appears to be some sort of guide in general, which makes logical sense. If the horse is there to perform you would expect them to be fairly prominent in the market.

So, if you just focussed on those going off at 16/1 or shorter under those rules above you get…

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 137 51 37.23 203.02 74 54.01 148.19 249.24 54.1 1.92
2016 18 10 55.56 58.88 13 72.22 327.11 69.13 16.93 3.09
2015 35 13 37.14 41.9 21 60 119.71 53.13 18.28 1.87
2014 40 15 37.5 63.41 20 50 158.53 75.24 10.93 2.16
2013 44 13 29.55 38.83 20 45.45 88.25 51.74 7.96 1.38

 

***

Next we could look at those with 2 runners at the track in the previous 730 days- this averages around 1 a year and again could be an indication of targeting by certain trainers. Of course you could keep going I suppose, when do you stop? But, I will stop at 2 for now…

  • Flat Turf Only
  • Trainers Runners at Track in previous 730 days: 2 only
  • 2013,14,15,16-
Trainer Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
Chapple-Hyam, P W 15 6 40 6.78 8 53.33 45.2 7.74 0.6 1.71
Feane, John James 22 5 22.73 28.5 8 36.36 129.55 52.15 18.96 2.39
Fellowes, Charlie 22 5 22.73 32.5 9 40.91 147.73 42.77 15 2.23
Palmer, Hugo 25 8 32 21.5 15 60 86 24.68 7.52 1.65
Stoute, Sir Michael 16 7 43.75 13.57 8 50 84.81 17.31 -2.39 1.4

 

Odds

Again the odds may be some indication with these runners, albeit as always caution is advised.

Those going off over 16/1 are: 0/15, 3 places

Feane and Fellowes are the main big priced culprits, 0/11,2 places between them.

If you were just to focus on those going off 16/1 or shorter SP…

 

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 85 31 36.47 117.85 45 52.94 138.65 159.65 32.59 1.8
2016 17 4 23.53 18.33 8 47.06 107.82 26.53 6.83 1.21
2015 27 8 29.63 42.97 12 44.44 159.15 62.18 16.05 1.65
2014 25 14 56 54.89 18 72 219.56 68.02 12.68 2.57
2013 16 5 31.25 1.66 7 43.75 10.38 2.92 -2.97 1.39

 

***

So a couple of interesting angles there and they may be a decent starting point to look at these horses in more depth. There are not too many bets and maybe this more micro, behavioural analysis, is the way forward. It may not be and it will be interesting to track these trainers and see how they get on.

***

We could look at those trainers who do well when only sending one runner to certain tracks. Again, the following could be used as a good starting point in any horse/race analysis…

  • J Gosden/Doncaster: 27 bets / 10 wins / 14 places / 37% sr / +13 SP / +16 BFSP / AE 1.41
  • J Gallagher/Brighton: 27 bets / 9 wins / 14 places / 33% sr / +21 SP / +29 BFSP / AE 1.93
  • W Haggas/Sandown: 24 bets / 9 wins / 15 places/ 38% sr / +26 SP / +32 BFSP / AE 1.37
  • L Cumani/Newbury: 24 bets / 8 wins / 14 places / 33% sr / +11 SP / +12 BFSP / AE 1.57
  • W Muir/Nottingham: 23 bets / 8 wins / 11 places / 35% sr / +29 SP / +40 BFSP / AE 2.19
  • G Baker/Brighton: 23 bets / 7 wins / 10 places / 30% sr / +26 SP / +36 BFSP / AE 1.93
  • S J Harty/Curragh: 23 bets / 7 wins / 13 places / 30% sr / +56 SP / +97 BFSP / AE 3.27
  • T D Easterby/Haydock: 24 bets / 6 wins / 9 places / 25% sr / +17 SP / +27 BFSP / AE 1.9
  • T Stack/Curragh: 28 bets / 6 wins / 16 places / 21% sr / +81 SP / +175 BFSP / AE 1.69
  • D Nicholls/Redcar: 22 bets / 6 wins / 10 places / 27% sr / +21 SP / +24 BFSP / AE 1.91

 

***

I did have a look at ‘miles travelled’ but have struggled to find anything too significant.

***

That will do for this post. A few interesting snippets there I think and a few angles to keep an eye on. Hopefully some of you found that interesting enough and as always any thoughts/questions/better ideas are welcome!

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Josh
    This is something I have always been interested in bt don’t have the technology to do it.
    I Like small numbers of bets(systems) quality rather than quantity.
    I will follow it with interest.

    Mike

    mickeydee 17/08/16 8:40 PM Reply


    • Thanks Mike, yep I think you are right with the quality over the quantity and I will try and keep that in mind moving forward! Less is more and with not many qualifiers these couple of angles should be stress-free to track, and monitor.

      Josh 18/08/16 9:12 AM Reply


  • enjoyed reading this Josh ,keep up the good work,the blog is excellent and now the format is great too ,I dont place many bets myself as I dont have the confidence in the systems even though the performance report over 365 days on most of mine are positive Im trying to narrow them down constantly to find out why they are and when in conjunction with making the process as logical as possible as you have done here and keeping the number of qualifiers low

    Geoff Hall 18/08/16 6:49 AM Reply


    • Thanks Geoff, glad you enjoyed the read, that is my main aim. Yep, agree with those sentiments. I do like ‘trainer behaviour’ and indications for why that behaviour may indicate a horse is about to perform, ie a trainer sending a horse to a track they rarely visit. It will be interesting how these get on. If you have more quality over quantity also, it can give you more time to look at the actual horses and use the stats as a starting point.

      Josh 18/08/16 9:15 AM Reply


  • hi josh for years i have followed h candy when he sends a horse north of the trent i have had had some decent priced winners and he does not have many runners going that way so could you have a look may be you can come up with an angle

    buster8 18/08/16 8:50 AM Reply


    • Hi Buster, I will add that to the list and have a quick look – there are a few angles I can dive into and it will be interesting what they throw up. Cheers

      Josh 18/08/16 9:17 AM Reply


  • As always Josh you have put a lot of time and effort into this. Very interesting and useful please keep it going.

    Andrew 18/08/16 10:47 AM Reply


    • Thanks Andrew, yep plenty more where those came from hopefully – yet to look at that same approach for the Jumps but would hope there may be a few trainers to track/test in that sphere. And plenty of angles etc to look at for the jumps.

      Josh 18/08/16 11:20 AM Reply


  • Wow! Good work again Josh – I love these little nuggets as they often make a small manageable lists and throw up the odd good priced selection.

    Well done!

    Roger Hawkes 18/08/16 11:07 AM Reply


    • Cheers Roger- yep those approaches look very manageable and won’t throw up too many selections which may well be the way forward! We shall see how they end this flat season as a group.

      Josh 18/08/16 11:22 AM Reply


  • I have looked at trainers who have only one runner at a meeting Josh. I have noticed that they win when ridden by the stable jockey or the jockey’s only mount at the meeting. It’s also a possible bet if ridden by a top jockey at the meeting who has never ridden for the trainer before.

    Stuart Cooper 18/08/16 2:07 PM Reply


    • Thanks Stuart- yep the jockey angle isn’t one i have looked at actually and I probably should. I think I can look at jockey’s rides at the track and I will run that through HorseRaceBase at some point and see if it throws up anything. I dare say there may be a few trainer/jockey 1 run/ride at track combos, we shall see. All those ‘behavioural’ signs can be decent indications and worthy of consideration. Good stuff.

      Josh 18/08/16 2:14 PM Reply


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