One winner to end the day for the systems and some more places to add to the number of horses that aren’t quite getting there. My Ascot Micro Systems hadn’t been doing too well before yesterday- 8 points down going into Friday- but a 20/1 winner of race 1 ensures that they head into the final day on +6 points. Hopefully a couple more could win to day to make it an ok week on that front.
Shared Equity – 1 point EW – 25/1 (5 places…bet365/Skybet/Lad) UP
Salateen – 1 point EW – 33/1 (5 places…bet365/SkyB/Lad) UP
There are some decent stats here to help in the shortlisting. I have looked at those that were top 6 LTO,Aged 7 or younger, OR107+/top weights a negative,Top 4 on at least one of last 3 starts, Top 2 on one of last 5.
Ignoring any form from abroad, which won’t be included in stats (ie Salateen ran in France a few starts ago and would not qualify strictly on some of those above,but does when ignoring that run) I think that left a shortlist of…
Poyle Vinnie / Mutawathea / Brando / Shared Equity / Spring Loaded / B Fifty Two / Huntsmans Close / Salateen
Those with 20 or more handicap runs have a poor record in this historically as do those with 8 or more career wins and 6+ handicap wins. A few of those above fall down on some of those stats – which are essentially highlighting the record of more unexposed horses I suppose.
So, I think that would then leave… Mutawathea / Brando / Shared Equity / Salateen.
Shared Equity… Well I am not sure what this one has done wrong and why he is such a big price. He has decent C2 big field form, it is impossible to say yet that he cannot win from this mark (has dropped 5lb this season,won well of 4lb lower last season) will like the ground, races prominently and is in form – as is the trainer. He ran a decent enough race at Epsom LTO, arguably bumping into one there- the rejuvenated, classy at best, Blaine. I see no reason why he won’t run his race again and I would like to think he could get in the mix. I have one drawn low and one high here so hopefully all angles are covered. He could well lead the low numbers and he may well stay there! 25s just looked big really.
Salateen… well again I have been drawn in by what looks a big price to me. This is only the 13th run of his life and the fourth for O’Meara. His best form has been at 7f and it could be that he gets outpaced over this trip- but I find it interesting that they drop him to this distance, given that he does have a bit of speed. He likes to lead and get on with it and he could well take the high numbers along. There will be more to come from him at some point and already has some decent form in the book. He has maiden form on ground with give in it and again is yet to prove that he won’t like the ground. He may hate it but he is 33s- it is an unknown. Given his place on the shortlist,the connections,his unexposed profile and style of running I just couldn’t resist a go at 33s. I am hoping this may have been the plan – or they are getting his mark down for a tilt at York, but I will hope it is the former.
Brando – well if he were 10s I may have thrown 1 point at him, and I have had a saver on at 8s- just because he tiks every box and ran a blinder LTO considering he missed the break and came from the wrong part of the track – low tended to dominate that day. He is unexposed, will like the ground, the step up in trip is no problem and he qualifies on my Kevin Ryan C2 handicaps micro angle. He looks to have a lot going. He may beat himself again and as I say I don’t know if one side will end up dominating, due to the ground.
Mutawathea could run a good race but he does look like he needs good to firm and given how he ran LTO I am unconvinced that a drop to 6f is what he wants. He could well prove me wrong and go very close- stats wise etc he has a good profile and at 20s does look interesting. The going is the main concern, and possibly being outpaced over this distance. He has yet to win on turf yet also.
Clearly there are many others that I could mention but I would be here a while, so won’t bother. You can always make a case for a few in races of this nature but I think I have two decent priced ones onside who could out-run their odds. They should both be up there from off and at some point may look like winning. Hopefully one can place at worse.
3.50 Red – Twentysvnthlancers (18/1<) UP
5.00 Ascot – Ninjago (18/1<) UP
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
3.15 Red – Free Zone (12/1<) DNQ
3.30 Ayr – Nicholas T (16/1<) 2nd
3.50 Red – Alsvinder NR/ First Bombardment- UP (both 12/1<)
5.20 Newm – Jordan Sport (16/1<) UP
5.50 Red – Bond Bombshell (12/1<) 2nd
5.55 New – Penwortham (16/1<) NR
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST