Members Report: 18/06/16 (COMPLETE)

One winner to end the day for the systems and some more places to add to the number of horses that aren’t quite getting there. My Ascot Micro Systems hadn’t been doing too well before yesterday- 8 points down going into Friday- but a 20/1 winner of race 1 ensures that they head into the final day on +6 points. Hopefully a couple more could win to day to make it an ok week on that front. 

Anyway…

 

TIPS 

5.00 Ascot 

Shared Equity – 1 point EW – 25/1 (5 places…bet365/Skybet/Lad) UP

Salateen – 1 point EW – 33/1 (5 places…bet365/SkyB/Lad) UP

 

There are some decent stats here to help in the shortlisting. I have looked at those that were top 6 LTO,Aged 7 or younger, OR107+/top weights a negative,Top 4 on at least one of last 3 starts, Top 2 on one of last 5. 

Ignoring any form from abroad, which won’t be included in stats (ie Salateen ran in France a few starts ago and would not qualify strictly on some of those above,but does when ignoring that run) I think that left a shortlist of…

Poyle Vinnie / Mutawathea / Brando / Shared Equity / Spring Loaded / B Fifty Two / Huntsmans Close / Salateen 

Those with 20 or more handicap runs have a poor record in this historically as do those with 8 or more career wins and 6+ handicap wins. A few of those above fall down on some of those stats – which are essentially highlighting the record of more unexposed horses I suppose. 

So, I think that would then leave… Mutawathea / Brando / Shared Equity / Salateen. 

Shared Equity… Well I am not sure what this one has done wrong and why he is such a big price. He has decent C2 big field form, it is impossible to say yet that he cannot win from this mark (has dropped 5lb this season,won well of 4lb lower last season) will like the ground, races prominently and is in form – as is the trainer. He ran a decent enough race at Epsom LTO, arguably bumping into one there- the rejuvenated, classy at best, Blaine. I see no reason why he won’t run his race again and I would like to think he could get in the mix. I have one drawn low and one high here so hopefully all angles are covered. He could well lead the low numbers and he may well stay there! 25s just looked big really. 

Salateen… well again I have been drawn in by what looks a big price to me. This is only the 13th run of his life and the fourth for O’Meara. His best form has been at 7f and it could be that he gets outpaced over this trip- but I find it interesting that they drop him to this distance, given that he does have a bit of speed. He likes to lead and get on with it and he could well take the high numbers along. There will be more to come from him at some point and already has some decent form in the book. He has maiden form on ground with give in it and again is yet to prove that he won’t like the ground. He may hate it but he is 33s- it is an unknown. Given his place on the shortlist,the connections,his unexposed profile and style of running I just couldn’t resist a go at 33s. I am hoping this may have been the plan – or they are getting his mark down for a tilt at York, but I will hope it is the former.

Brando – well if he were 10s I may have thrown 1 point at him, and I have had a saver on at 8s- just because he tiks every box and ran a blinder LTO considering he missed the break and came from the wrong part of the track – low tended to dominate that day. He is unexposed, will like the ground, the step up in trip is no problem and he qualifies on my Kevin Ryan C2 handicaps micro angle. He looks to have a lot going. He may beat himself again and as I say I don’t know if one side will end up dominating, due to the ground.

Mutawathea could run a good race but he does look like he needs good to firm and given how he ran LTO I am unconvinced that a drop to 6f is what he wants. He could well prove me wrong and go very close- stats wise etc he has a good profile and at 20s does look interesting. The going is the main concern, and possibly being outpaced over this distance. He has yet to win on turf yet also. 

Clearly there are many others that I could mention but I would be here a while, so won’t bother. You can always make a case for a few in races of this nature but I think I have two decent priced ones onside who could out-run their odds. They should both be up there from off and at some point may look like winning. Hopefully one can place at worse. 

Good Luck

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

June Trainers 

3.50 Red – Twentysvnthlancers (18/1<) UP

5.00 Ascot – Ninjago (18/1<) UP

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

3.15 Red – Free Zone (12/1<) DNQ

3.30 Ayr – Nicholas T (16/1<) 2nd 

3.50 Red – Alsvinder NR/ First Bombardment- UP (both 12/1<) 

5.20 Newm – Jordan Sport (16/1<) UP

5.50 Red  – Bond Bombshell (12/1<) 2nd 

5.55 New – Penwortham (16/1<) NR 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None today. 

 

Post complete.

 

 

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Shared Equity for me in the Wokingham with a smaller bet on Glen Moss. Also think Margarets Mission is a ridiculous price in the 14:55 at Ayr

      1. Sadly so does the Bet Alchemist, Ben Aitken and another one of my tipsters (who has also tipped Brando so at least I have that covered) so the poor horse now carrying an extra stone in weight of expectations!

        1. Looks like the extra stone told. At least Glen Moss covered the bets plus Margrets Mission was 3rd also for a small profit on the day.

          1. Poor all round really in that race- wrong side of the track by the looks of things – those middle to high looked to be on a road compared to low numbers. O’Meara horse went out like a light which was frustrating. Well done with GM. I would have been annoyed had Outback T won at 16s/20s + , having tipped him LTO – was happy to leave at morning prices based on that last run – he went out too quickly for my liking over a CD that was fine – thought that was just a bit too poor, in context of price. Never dismiss a Cowell sprinter. Clearly a bit of a character it appears, doesn’t like being in front very long. Anyway. Dartmouth won for my Stoute micro system to ensure the day wasn’t all lost!

        2. some of the usually good Ascot tipster had poor weeks incl Alchemist + Aitken + the Priestley boys, but they cant win em all, of the other services I buy far and away the best was the speculateaccumulate elite which had 5 tips, jennies jewel;portage and kinema won and I got an each way on Buckstay. Got them off the racing index and well worth a look.

          Today I must take on Banksea at evens so with Dance King and Maarakib possibly in the grip of the capper will have a punt on arrowhead -sds up.

  2. It takes a special horse to win from the front at Ascot, the pace was strong and the race was set up for a horse coming from off the pace, OT had a perfect race stalking the pace and being produced at the right time.The draw imo was not a factor as the first home was drawn on the near side and the second home was drawn on the far side. This was purely pace wins the race, don’t be too hard on Salateen, when he gets a more favorable track he will hose up at a decent price.

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