Just started pulling together tomorrow’s post and I have gone through the Betfair Hurdle. Selections are in that post, and below. Write up to follow at some point. For now…
BIG RACE PREVIEWS
Mad Jack Mytton – 1 point EW – 20/1 (5 places…BV/PP – 20/1 general)
Baby King – 1 point EW – 33/1 (5 places…SB/BV/PP) 33/1 general
There are couple of decent 3m+ chases I am about to get stuck into. Selections will be up asap, by 10am at the latest as usual.
Not too much to say about Firm Order. The prominent position he had and the way he travelled over the first two fences makes me think he would have been in there pitching near the end, but that is educated guesswork! Sadly he unseated and I don’t know enough about jockeyship and how you present a horse at a fence to be overly critical of Richie,(that’s something I should read about maybe!) and I need to watch the replay again. That was the first time in his last 13 completed chases or so that he has fallen or unseated. Another day. That’s jumps racing for you and I think that is the first faller/unseater I may have backed this season, possibly.
Seebright – 1 point win – 20/1 (PP) 18/1 (general) UP
Tinker Time – 1 point win – 10/1 (Bet365/BV) 9/1 (general) UP (PU?)
My approach is always to go through the runners before looking at the market. Then when I get to the market I scan those at the top, skip to the bottom and work my way back up. And having gone through them all with my page of notes, when looking at OddsChecker these two jumped off the page and slapped me around the face. Those odds, given their chase form and their still progressive profiles are just simply too big in my opinion. I would be disappointed if one, or both dont out-run them.
Seebright has done nothing wrong over fences (3/4) and has plenty of form on soft. He is still open to bags of improvement. The question is what ability remains. He was pulled up LTO over hurdles after a lengthy break but travelled well until about 3 out when it looked like a lack of sharpness caught up with him. The fact he went over hurdles suggests it was a ‘get him back in one piece after a long break’ run. They have clearly taken their time in the interim and with a lot of horses in this race look like they have been waiting for better ground. Soft is fine and if he picks up where he left off over fences he is no 20/1 shot. He also usually races prominently which I like in general and even more so around here. The jockey is 1/4, 2 places for Dartnal in handicaps in the last two years. So, he has used him to good effect before. He is also an underrated/underused pilot. All in all I had to have a nibble. It may go astray, as many 20/1 pokes do, but as I have said before you don’t need many to go in over time to do just fine – and the truth is they are hard to find and you dont back bucket loads regularly – Highland Lodge (33/1 -28/1) and Russe Blanc (20/1) being the two biggies so far this season.
Tinker Time – well he is another who is still open to progress and that win at Ludlow was impressive. He has won at the track over fences and is another prominent racer. They may have been avoiding heavy with him and the trainer may have learnt from last season where it looks to me that they bottomed him out/ran him too frequently at times. He has readied him after a break before so I have no real concerns on that front – and in any case he is 10/1, not 11/4. I see no reason why he cant build on that Ludlow run. There are some pretty stupid spotlight comments in the racing post on this one (geegeez gold racecards use those comments I believe) Talk of ‘only 2lb above his last winning mark’ – oh please, this is his 11th chase start of his life, can he still improve? yes, will he, I dont know, but that makes talk of 2lb irrelevant. He wont lose because of 2lbs, but I suppose that comment puts plenty off and makes the price bigger! He would have won the race the last day with an extra 9lb in his back also. So, 10/1 is too big for him I think. If he is fit enough he will out-run those odds.
Of the rest – well I need to get on with finishing my Cheltenham guide so I wont labour on – I cant have Ned Stark at that price. I would like to see him return to some form but I cant touch him at that price, despite the big drop in class. King is also 0/12, 2 places in handicap chases at the track in last 2 years, 4/46 or so with all handicappers here in that time. Silvergrove is where he should be but I dont want to be lumping on at 3s. His form is no better than the selections for me. He may well lead them, and he could stay there, but I won’t be kicking myself that I didn’t back him. Pauling currently 0/5, 0 places all handicappers here, but that stat may not mean much yet. A Good Skin is interesting and if he won I would not be shocked. But, he is not a micro system qualifier because he has had only 1 run in last 90 days, and historically at this time of year its George’s hard race fit horses that do best. But, he has been waiting for better ground and he is still open to improvement also. If he were a bigger price I may have looked at him for longer. He could also do with tidying up his jumping at times. Wizard Bridge has form in novice handicap chases and needs to step up. Its an insult to Tinker Time that he is the same price imo, famous last words! Tizzard is 0/9, 1 place with his handicappers here in last 730 days. (obviously Cue Card handles the track fine!)
For one reason or another I am happy to take on the rest. The likes of Financial Climate and Shuil Royale dont have much room in their marks and I would like to think there are enough progressive horses in here to see them off. (ah, labour on I have, standard, but I like to be detailed!)
That is all for today
4.10 – Wetherby
NO TIP – looks a bit trappy. I think King of The Worlds is the most likely winner but wont tip at that price I dont think. You need to be very confident at 11/4 and I can’t say I am. Out of all the system bets in that race he is also the one I would go for, but a few in here are doing a few things different (Jack Steel steps up massively in trip). Not a race to be dogmatic about, don’t let me sway you if you like one, or four!
2.05 Kemp – Saffron Prince (14/1 or shorter) 3rd 14/1>12/1
2.25 Weth – Bawden Rocks (14/1 or shorter) UP 6/4
4.10 Weth – King of The Worlds (12/1 or shorter) 2nd 3/1> 2/1
4.10 Weth – Glenn Countess UP/ Jack Steel UP/ Voyage A New York UP (all any odds)
(blimey that is 4 in the 4.10, I bet I pick the wrong one!)
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