UPDATE: Ah, well a +10 point profit day is not to be sniffed at but disappointed we didnt get any run for our money in the big one. The 1st and 2nd were in the ‘shortlist’ of 11 so at least that trends/stats profile did the trick, shame my pin didnt land on the winner. In hindsight his form was already much better than the selections and was open to plenty of improvement, 20/1 last night. He was also a prominent race. Well done if any of you had a piece of him. Clearly I should have spent longer looking at him. Next time. Thankfully Count Guido Deiro ensured a decent day, and a few of the eye-catchers won as well.
Blog Tips now +102.5 points for 2016.
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Quick reflection…
Two duds at Kempton and I really despise not getting a run for my money or being entertained, at least approaching the last. But, that is the nature of the value game. It happens and will do many times more. Tinker was nibbled at and ran no sort of race. Not sure if he simply could not lay up with the pace but his jockey never looked comfortable. Seebright ran ok for the most part and at one time looked threatening before fading. I may want to see more before backing him. Its easier to take when you tip two that fall out the back of the tv and the fav wins. (you have to find positives somewhere!) I don’t mind that. Its rather annoying when another possible value play romps home – as that means you have missed something. Clearly I was a bit too harsh about the fav and underestimate his quality. That was a decent performance, albeit I will always be keen to take on 3/1 favs, you have to be. (of course 3/1 can be value from time to time also)
Anyway, we won 8 points last week and I am doing my best to give them back, -4 for the week. (still +92.5 points for 2016 mind!) Onto today…
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No big graded/handicap chases to get stuck into for me (happy to just watch the Denman Chase) so we have two competitive handicap hurdles instead. (albeit I think I always would have looked at the Betfair Hurdle)
BIG RACE PREVIEWS
3.35 Newbury
Mad Jack Mytton – 1 point EW – 20/1 (5 places…BV/PP – 20/1 general) UP
Baby King – 1 point EW – 33/1 (5 places…SB/BV/PP) 33/1 general UP
(as Nick points out below, do shop around as you can get 28/1 with Coral, but 4 places, for Mad Jack, and 22/1 with SB – Neither would accept more than about £2.34 from me, but that doesnt stop you trying! Think I should have spent more on their casino games! Official results will be recorded at the prices, 5 places, as above, unless SP is bigger)
Well big field handicap hurdles are not my usual territory or comfort zone but I will get involved when there are some decent trends/stats to help. And of course you often get 5 places and can get stuck into some at big odds – which is also why I like big field sprint handicaps on the flat. If Baby King comes 5th its like a 7/1 winner for example. And over time, those placed profits can add to the pot. And, every now and then, one goes in!
Those of you who read the stats/trends profile for this race will know the ones i used to draw up a ‘shortlist’. Well that shortlist was 11, but still better than 22. Of course the winner may be in the discarded pile.
That shortlist is as follows: War Sound / Kalkir/Sternrubin/Mad Jack Mytton/Forest Bihan/Modus/Agropart WON/Starchitect 2nd/Blazer /Champagne At Tara /Baby King
Now, I hope one of those goes in to uphold the profile I used, but we shall see. I wanted to narrow it down a bit further. As an aside Mullins is 0/11, 0 places in this race to date so it will be interesting if he can improve on that record. I would think a lot of those were well touted/fancied as well.
Two further nuggets helped. Those with claiming jockeys on board dont have a great record, and neither do those dropping in trip by 1.5f or further. (so, running over 2m2f/18f or further LTO) Using those two would remove 5 more of them leaving: Sternrubin/both selections/Starchitect/Blazer/Champagne At Tara
The Selections…
Well they have a decent profile for this historically and they are a decent price. In a way that is enough! They are both unexposed and could still have more to come over hurdles.
Baby King does like soft so that is no problem and he looks like a stayer at this trip, rather than one who just sees it out. There is plenty of pace in here on paper and in this ground, the race could be run to suit. He has yet to be tested in a big field like this and I am interested to see how he goes. I had to back him at 33s given his place on the shortlist and the fact he will handle conditions. He may not be good enough, but as yet I dont know, and am happy to pay to find out at those odds. Tom George is also in great form at the moment as well, which is a positive.
Likewise Mad Jack Mytton has improvement to come. I don’t know if this ground will suit -it is an unknown, he hasnt had chance to really prove he doenst. His form behind Solstice Star when last seen, in soft, has been franked since. I am sure Jonjo is going to burst into life at some point, and maybe it will be this weekend! He has won the race before which is reassuring and he could well out-run his odds, if handling the ground.
Of the rest. Well, in general I wouldnt want to take anything under double figures in this. Where is the fun in that . Sternrubin has to overcome that he he german bred (small numbers but 0/15) and that he ran at Ascot LTO (0/54, 10 places). Champagne At Tara is the other really big price but he has plenty to prove now and I would expect someone else in the saddle if he were meant to go well. It would be a bit sickening if he went in at 40s! Starchitect is interesting but has a long break to overcome, plus a liking for this ground and I am yet to be convinced he will truly stay a strongly run race, in this ground, at this trip – being out of Sea The Stars. His wins have been small field affairs that he could dominate albeit that Cheltenham run on good is eye catching.
There are a good 4 or 5 who like to get on with this and I cant think Johnson will have it all his own way up front. Tracking or sitting off the pace may be the best place to be. I think we have two live ones on our side at the prices, but time will tell. Of course the fav may just be a good thing and if he is congratulations to connections, but I have to take him on.
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1.50 Newbury
Count Guido Deiro – 1 point win – 14/1 – WON 14/1>11/1
I am previewing this race for my Daily Punt Blog. The trends were never overly strong and in any case the race has cut up, but this one looks most interesting from what I can see of prices. When I get a link to that post, I will put it up. If you are on their email list you should received it soon….
Trends were emailed out by them on Friday…
The write up was just sent out in their email this week as was fairly short, repeated below…
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That will be it on the tipping/race preview front.
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MICRO SYSTEMS
Feb Trainers
1.50 Newb – Batavir UP/Gevrey Chambertain UP (any odds)
4.25 War – Clyne – (10/1<) WON 4/1
Other
Fry Mares (10/1< guide) : 2.05 War: Jessbers Dream 2nd 13/8
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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
1.30 Warw – Vivaldi Collognes – 7/2 – WON 3/1 was an eye catcher last time out here in that decent marathon chase – in fact I think I added quite a few to the notebook from that race. He travelled and jumped well in the main and it was some task for one so inexperienced. This drop in trip looks the right move. It is interesting that they run him in a novice chase here – a less demanding race and one he could enjoy more, gaining him more experience. The Curtis yard is very iffy this season and I wouldn’t want to snapping up 2/1 – but, I forget the last time I bet in a Novice chase so take my views with a pinch of salt, but I expect this one will run a decent race.
3.00 Newbury – an interesting race. Top Gamble WON 3.4/1> 6/5 (after R4) was an eye-catcher LTO, looking like in this type of ground a decent paced 2m race would be best. This is some step up in class. The question is whether this is a prep for Dodging Bullets – well it will be a prep for Cheltenham and I suspect PN has left plenty to work on. He may be fit enough to win but I cant think STD will be expected to bottom him out here, given what’s around the corner. Lami Serge (NR) is a qualifier for a Hendo 6yo Chaser angle I have shared before. He looks likely to lead them along here. Interesting. Clearly if the ‘Dodge’ repeats his Cheltenham run and runs up to his mark the others could be running for second.
Other previous ‘eye catchers’ include West of the Edge who runs in the 3.15. I still havent forgiven myself from omitting him from this list LTO as he won at 16/1 over hurdles, having been tracked due to his chase form. He wont be 16/1 here and he had a tough race that day, but he stays and likes the mud so may well run his race again, albeit there are some smart ones here, according to the ratings in any case! Cogry lines up in the 3.50 and while I think the smaller field and less competitive nature of the race will help him, I’m not sure if the trip will. I suspect NTD would be pleased just to get him jumping, for him to put in a good round, travel well and get competitive to some degree. Maybe he will have the pace if it falls apart a bit. Anyway, it would be nice to see him get back on track, and I have no strong views.
I have previously promised to highlight eye-catchers (from the weekly diary posts) so that is what I have done. Use the info as you please and if you are going to bet, please do look at the races in some depth – which isnt something I have done!
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That is all on the horses front. Good Luck
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49 Responses
Interesting Josh that Juicy Plum guy has tipped up Forest Bihan and BABY KING….will be interesting to see your write up.
I am having a punt on Sternrubin and Zarib, if one goes close the other is weighted to be very close and I do think Zarib has improvement with the yard in better form, I’m also having a sentimental punt a few bob on Cheltenian although I am flummoxed as to why they put Tom O’Brien up, as Ok as he is and not a 5lb or 7lbs Claimer??…Good Luck
Yep, i always like to read Juicy Plums and even more so when Nick puts one up I like. He is a top value judge and given our stats/trends approach it is no surprise our pins sometimes land on the same ones!
Good luck with your two. Cases can be made for most in here to some degree. Yep not sure what plan is with Cheltenian. As Rob points out below they may be using him to lower the weights for their other runners. I dont really know but he has a big weight in this ground , in a strongly run race but he looks sure to be thereabouts for some time.
Word on the local grapevine is that War Sound is Hobbs’ Champion Hurdle contender ? So that makes sense what you’re saying about the weights & Ciaran Gethings takes another 5lb off, personally think Kalkir will run best of the top weights.
See Tanya Stevenson goes for your MJM – so do my figures… Me plumping for Zarib & a contrarian fancy in Montbazon & seriously can only consider this as a fun bet race. It also wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if the favourite becomes the first rpr top rated to win for 7+ years or so?
Jack actually 22/1 with Sky paying 5 and 28/1 with Corals paying 4 (never certain how much that extra place is worth but 6pts seems a lot to sacrifice in the grand scheme of things)
Yep, I cant get more than shrapnel on with Coral but I should highlight them! And likewise with SB. Cheers
Any chance Newbury will be Heavy come 3.35 tomorrow given the rain, or do these forecasted goings take into account these things?
Yep maybe – if so that can only improve Baby Kings chance, dont think the mud is a problem for him – if could be for quite a few others. That may do for Mad Jack but cant think Jonjo will run him in it if doesnt think will handle it, and he did well in soft LTO, I would be guessing as to how he would handle heavy. You can afford a bit of guessing at 20s.
good afternoon i have read that the ladbroke hurdle run at ascot since 2001 has never provided the winner of the betfair hurdle
this would certainly count against sternrubin,, who i feel would be be a creditable candidate for cheltenham in particular the vincent obrien county hurdle.
Some good judgements from you today, Josh, well done.
I’ve backed Kalkir, first time in a h’cap, will like the going and a frantic pace, and the Graded form bodes well, as does the return run 4 weeks ago .I hope talent, stable form and price equal value win and place.
But I’m fighting against poor form myself 🙁
Yep generally good bar the tipping race, but the way that panned out doesnt look like i would have had the winner anyway! Good luck with your two. Best not to fight poor form, you just have to be confident that your approach works over time, and therefore stick to it. Its all cyclical and cant be forced! If it was an easy game we would all be doing something else!
Cheers Josh…don’t like going 4 points in one race, so just 1/2 point each way for me. Let’s hope I regret that decision!
Paul
No problem, each to their own! It’s a rare 4 pointer foray but learnt to my cost last year,going 1/2s in races like this where I had two horses cost me about 60 odd points, if not more. Thats why I have this approach now,but can understand where you are coming from.
Done your selections Josh but also Cheltenian eachway antepost and again tonight.Earlier this week LBrokes had him at 14s aginst everryone elses 25s plus. Definitely got the proven class , tactical speed to nick a place . Obviosly aimed for the race I would say
Hi josh, how can I access your daily punt blog please to read about the 1.50 selection? Thanks
Hi Mike, they email it out in the morning. I will post a link to it below the race as soon as it is up. Looks a trappy race and that one is a bit of a punt but if fit he will stay and will like the mud and could see them all off from the front.
Thanks josh, appreciate it
i quite fancy sternrubin, i think hobbs is using top weight cheltenian (poor stats type) to help is other 2 carry that magic 11st2lb or less good stat range and also have the young age stat on there side.
however,im disappointed to find out (afetr a hours study!!!! that ascot (ladbroke) lto have a poor record,although the number of places suggest surely they will win it soon.
im wondering how many of these ascot winners were already newbury course and distance winners like sternrubin as i dont think the 9 week absence is a negative stat (get me out of here,recession proof similar 8 to 10 weeks of the track)
Yep, well my purpose is never to put people off horses they fancy, and I wont. Nothing worse than liking a horse, not backing it because of what someone else said, only to see it romp home! As ever, with any negative or question mark, you have to ask if the price overcomes that. And at 9/1, 10/1 you can forgive the odd thing, not like he is 3/1. I would be disappointed if he got an easy lead here and he could end up doing too much, depending on how dickie rides him. He will need to be ultra smart to step forward again given the rise, but that is possible. That was also a tough race lto. There are always different reasons for LTO track stats – whether a particular race type, how competitive it was, the track constitution etc
Good point about Cheltenian and the weight, you may well be spot on with that one, we shall see. You are right about the number of places from Ascot LTO runners, that stat will be broken at some point, maybe tomorrow!
this race as been kind to me in the past (geos twice!),but the last few years outsiders as made it more tricky.
modus is in my horses to follow but i dont get the jockey situation at all.
gerraghty sides with the other jp mac runner which i understand,but sam twiston davies rides for mullins who you would of thought would be on modus given he rides for nicholls,is STD really going to help mullins win the trainers title on what will be a first time ride for mullins i believe?
ruby walsh won this in 2012 and only missed 2014 and yet stays in ireland in which you assume sempri medici at least will give him 1 winner but this race as prize money dwarfing the red mills hurdle as well as the other 2 grade 2 ‘s on the newbury card
i wonder if ruby walsh knows deep down that mullins is just firing his arrows in hope of hitting the target around the bullseye than having a realistic chance of actually hitting the bullseye !
i quite fancy sternrubin, i think hobbs is using top weight cheltenian (poor stats type) to help is other 2 carry that magic 11st2lb or less good stat range and also have the young age stat on there side.
however,im disappointed to find out (after a hours study!!!! that ascot (ladbroke) lto have a poor record,although the number of places suggest surely they will win it soon.
im wondering how many of these ascot winners were already newbury course and distance winners like sternrubin as i dont think the 9 week absence is a negative stat (get me out of here,recession proof similar 8 to 10 weeks of the track)
Its interesting that in form jockey Nico De Boinville leaves Newbury after 2.25 to ride one for Harry Whittington in the 4.25 at Warwick fatcatinthehat.No value at 3/1 but one to note in clynes race
Hi Joss I have done blazer to win agrapart and zarib eachway hopefull the 5lb rise in the weights won’t stop him
Good luck Chris,I hope they finish 3rd 4th and 5th haha. If a horse is still progressive 5lb means very little. Should be an exciting slog in the mud.
Hi Josh
I had a small LAY bet yesterday on King of the Wolds. the reason was vague but I read your post and you fancied the horse but had been put of the price BUT was there a form reason why you avoided the horse
I wondered if top weight, over a distance on soft going might have swayed your decision. I run this through HRB and there is winners using this theory so I wondered if you had seen another angle to avoid the horse that I might have missed ?
Hi Norman,that was primarily a price decision in context that it looked a trappy/open race where you could make a case for most. Plus micros threw up 4 horses so made it a minefield. Wasn’t really a form reason I was put off. Weight/ground is interesting. Top weight in bogs have a decent enough record and I’m never put off them simply because of that. In some big races there can be clear trends (welsh national when heavy) and in big races they generally go a sound/frenetic pace which makes carrying a big weight tougher in deep. In a run of the mill race it depends. On the size of the horse,their class against oppo,and the pace of the race. Ie if a top weight is just much better than oppo and no progressive rivals,and they are able to dictate a steady pace, I wouldn’t be put off my weight. That’s just an example. In general you want to be with horses nearer top of weights than bottom,regardless of ground I think. Always exceptions to any rule.
I was at Kempton yesterday to back one in the first but it was a non runner. It was freezing there and the food outlets were closed bar one! I also had to drive as no trains were running from my station! Not a good day. I thought Josses Hill jumped well from the front.
Anyway back to today and the 3.35. Cheltenian does not finish well and has a lot of weight. Don’t waste your money on this horse. I have had the word for Zarib. I also like Champagne at Tara at 66/1! I also heard that they are thinking of having a ping at the champion hurdle with War Sound but it has to win today. However it has been off a while and has weight to cover on bad ground today.
Josh can you help me can you get any stats on L´AMI SERGE and Activial this would be a great help there could be a drink in it for you thanks in advance.Peter
Lami is a non runner now. What kind of stats do you mean? Horse profile related?
BOOOOOOOM Josh great pick on Count brilliant ride cheers great stuff sir.
Booommm indeed. Can really enjoy rest of the day now. An Eye Catcher won as well, of all things also haha
Well done josh, superb pick. Great ride, thanks.
great winner
top class ride
got the horse in a rhythum from the off
bet with betfair sportsbook so got the free bet as well
happy days
Yes that it was. Didnt realise the young jock has been with yard for a time, couldnt work out why he was riding! I was hopeful they would leave him alone at the front as he was never going to fail for stamina. Brilliant stuff.
Only jockey with a claim that made him lowest weighted in field – had a bit to find on my figures & every little helps but quite brilliant race analysis otherwise.
To man Josh. I have him in doubles with the 4 at Newbury 3.35. Here’s hoping
Blimey, drinks on you if that comes in! Each Way doubles? getting to point where I would be disappointed if Baby King isnt in top 5, in that ground, that weight, form of yard etc. No idea how Mad Jack will handle that ground. Either way, good day guaranteed!
Josh great well done with the winner thanks. What it is the pub I go to in the uk we pay 1 pound a week first to get 50 points all points are sp and I have 49 so I just need 1 point to land the pot which is a few quid so no pressure all help grateful Peter
Josh L´Ami Serge is still a runner
oh sorry, was looking at Newbury as was double booked. No idea, not types of horses/races that I follow really. They are unexposed etc, havent looked at that Warwick race.
Normal Saturday service is resumed. Was also on the second, shame I didn’t do an rfc. Cheers Josh.
Paul
ah well done, glad you were on. Ohh yes that would have been nice. Surprised Dickie kept his mount so far off pace, may well have been what cost him, couple of scrappy errors when trying to close. But, thats why I like front runners, forces errors etc. Was a great ride.
great tip Josh, sick because I didn’t back it. I’ve been away for a few days, mother not too well, just got back. Must sort out my donation for you.
Greg
Ah damn, well not to worry, Baby King is going to ensure we all have a great day!! 🙂 And I wish your mother a speedy recovery, get her betting on the ggs, that will lift the spirits!
Think my mother’s betting days are well over, she’s 89 lol. Anyway feel a bit better, just backed Houblon Des Obeaux, thought he would go well today.
Greg
Yep well done, I didnt really look at that race at all really, quick glance. Cheekpieces/small field/Newbury/every horse questions to answer – in hindsight 3/1 very big, shame I didnt have that thought process pre race!!
I think i had the last laugh with agrapart i got on at 20/1 5ew
Nice work. Yep another day my pin may have landed on that one, trends/stats profile worked. No sort of run from my two which was annoying but a 10 point profit day so I wont complain too much. Backed Agrapart at Aintree when I was last there, should have looked at him a bit more closely.Top tipping, and you did tell us pre race too, bonus points!
I thought that the first, second and fourth will be worth a look in Cheltenham handicaps?
The winner…trainer said Cheltenham not his track, so, I suspect we should keep an eye on him for Aintree. Good ground would be a question, rather than a negative, That was impressive and looks a very good horse on that evidence. The second for sure, especially as I am sure he would be better on decent ground. Also to be convinced he truly stays a strongly run 2m,and esp up that Cheltenham HIll, but he has plenty more to come. As yet not looked at/though about the rest.