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I have posted some trends for the Betfair Hurdle as well as a ‘winning profile’ and a working ‘shortlist’ of 14. I hope over half of those don’t turn up to leave a manageable number! Albeit that decent profile has more than halved the current field of 31.
Just click the ‘BLOG’ tab at the top and at the moment it is the second post down on the left.
I will email out a free report for Cheltenham tomorrow. It looks like the main guide will be released on Sunday, all being well. Aware I keep putting it back but I am keen to include as much value as I can.
1.15 Donny –
Firm Order – 1 point win – 8/1 (BV/PP/BetBright) UR (early) Jumped the first two well,no sure if mis-communication between jockey and horse. Too early to know what would have happened but looked to be travelling well in good rhythm, until that point. Fav hit 9/2 through morning which was a more tempting price but not annoyed I didn’t touch 7/2. Onto tomorrow.
Ah yes, backing an 11 year old in a race full of unexposed chasers. Possibly/probably a recipe for disaster but in this value hunting game of ours (IT IS NOT ABOUT WINNERS 🙂 ) I really could not let 8/1 go on this horse – in the context of the opposition as much as anything else.
To put it simply, on paper, he has the best handicap chase form in the race. I have tried to find a reason to ignore that glaring fact and to find a progressive horse to take him on with – but I struggled.
Let’s look at the positives. He knows how to win and despite his age this is only his 14th handicap chase start, winning 2, placed in a further 2. He is 7lb below his last win when taking account of jockey claims – oh and gets a pro back on for the first time in a while, a jockey who is 2/9, 5 places for the yard in handicap chases in the last 730 days. The trainer is also in form, 2/8, 4 places in last 14 days. Trainer is 1/6, 3 places in handicaps at the track in last 730 days and the horse has ran when here before – so happy to ignore the trainer’s overall record at the track – 3/42 in last 5 years.
The horse…well yes he is getting on but we know he is handicapped to win. In general he jumps/travels well. Ground and distance are no problem. Two years ago around this time he finished under 4L behind Holywell (a graded beast in his conditions) in a Novice Chase here, having led for most of the way. He has some talent. 1 year ago he finished 6l behind Firebird Flyer (2015/16 Welsh National runner up) at Ludlow, rated OR130 -7lb jockey claim. There was a gap back to the rest. This is also his first run in a C4 in 2 years. There were signs of a revival LTO where he mixed it with two progressive horses a long way from home. Finally, the break is no concern, he is 1/1 in handicap chases returning 61-90 days.
Look, he may well bump into 2/3/4 more with younger legs who pull away from him. But, he looks sure to run his race and I cannot say that about any other horse in here. Everything points to us getting a run for our money and at 8/1 I can rarely ask for much more.
The opposition…have so so sooooo much to prove – and for some of them prove it that may. But, the field is littered with horses who have yet to win a chase. The fav is the right fav. Maybe he got bogged down LTO in that ground with 11-12 but his jumping was deliberate again there (those factors may be linked – interesting Venetia Williams comment on The Morning Line about how an extra few pounds here and there,up in weight,can make horses fiddle fences when previously super jumpers-not something I had thought about before) and he was tonked into second. 7/2 feels short enough. He now has something to prove. Longsdon’s horse has a break to overcome 0/3, 0 places all runs 31-60 days, and he has stamina to prove – he breeding in general isnt screaming stayer. They also put blinkers on 1st time. The rest have plenty on their plate and if another wins I will detail why I didnt like them! Under The Phone is the other that caught my eye. He is doing something different, namely the step up in trip. I don’t know if that will suit. With horses doing that, you want them to be finishing off their races over shorter with some gusto, having been outpaced and staying on towards the line. Well I do, in general, in any case. He has been the opposite, dropping back over shorter and just plodding at one pace. I don’t know, the jury is out on him albeit an improved show may be in the offing. He is also 8/1 and I would rather have FO onside. Kim Bailey’s is unexposed but his usually run well after lengthy breaks so that PU is a concern. He also went violently right at his first two fences before his jock moved him to the inside rail at Leicester. He could lose lengths at every fence here.
So, that’s that. This horse can race where the jockey wants him to. There is a bit of pace in here so should be no excuses. Hopefully he has luck in running and we are at least excited jumping the last couple. A repeat of either of his winning runs in recent years, or even that Ludlow 2nd, would be good enough to take this for me. A younger horse may well pull away from him with more gears but I would need a few pins to try and work out which one it may be!
3.30 Donny – Royal Native – (12/1 or under)
4.40 Donny – Bertie Lug (14/1 or under) / Prince of Thieves (12/1 or under)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(these are not tips and this is a test section with the hope that over time it will find decent priced winners every now and then ensuring a long term profit. Do what you like with the info – in recent weeks ignoring it has been the best policy! 🙂 )
1.55 Hunt – One For The Guvnr – 11/1 (general) Tinkler and Hendo are 9/19, 15 places when teaming up in all races at the track and as such this one of is some interest. He is unexposed and should appreciated this step up in trip having hacked up in a couple of maiden/novice races last season before rounding off his campaign in a competitive Aintree handicap. Maybe this is a prep for something and he may not be fit (market the best guide?) but if Hendo wants him fit we know he can get them ready. At the prices he looked interesting, albeit while I havent looked at the others in much depth I did watch the race he Nicholls horse hacked up in and he was rather impressive that day. This rise wont stop him so he is clearly a danger to all.
That is all for today
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