Saturday: Betfair Hurdle Trends/Stats/Shortlist

Well I don’t believe there is a big 3m+ handicap chase to get stuck into and I am quite happy just to watch the Denman Chase. 

So, we are left with a couple of big field handicap hurdles. I will look at the 1.50 Newbury for my Daily Punt Blog. 

For now, the big one of the day…

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Betfair Hurdle

17 renewals since 1997

346 runners, 66 placed horses

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‘WINNING PROFILE?’

(my interpretation from stats below- I have looked at others ‘big ones’ as well, but they dont help much with shortlisting)

• 11-7 or less on back
• PLACED on at least one of last two starts
• 9^th or better LTO
• 0-1 win at 16.5f only
• Had won at least one hurdle
• 1^st or 2^nd one of last three starts

As I write those stats would help cut the field in half. Hopefully all 14 on the ‘shortlist’ don’t show up, to help make my job easier!

The above stats leave the following: War Sound / KalKir/Qewy/Sternrubin (german bred!) Whiteout/Mad Jack Mytton/Forest Bihan/John Constable/Modus/Agrapart/Starchitect/Blazer/Champagne At Tara/Baby King

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TRENDS

Previous Place

• 14/17 Top 3 LTO
  • 14/179 runners, 51 places…82% winners…52% runners…77% places
  • 10^th or worse (completed) : 0/26, 2 places
  • Fell: 0/5, 0 places
  • PU: 0/7,0 places
  • UR: 0/4, 1 place
  • ‘No Run’ (most likely no UK/Irish form): 0/8, 1 place

Horse Age

• 16/17 Aged 5-7
  • 8+ : 1/69, 17 places…6% winners…20% runners…26% places
    • (places better than what you would expect in terms of number of runners, suggesting maybe not a stat to get too hung up necessarily)

Days Since Run

• Not much of note
  • 1-7 days: 0/12, 1 place
  • 91-120 days: 0/9, 1 place
  • 121-365: 1/12, 2 places

Horse Weight

• 11-8+ : 0/31, 4 places

Horse Official Rating

• OR152+ : 0/11, 1 place

Season Runs

• 7+ : 0/15, 2 places

Wins (Distance)

• 2 or more wins at 16.5f: 0/71, 14 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

• Run over 22.5f (2m6.5f) or further in career: 0/50, 6 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

• Won over 20f (2m4f) or further: 0/36, 7 places

Position In Market

• Top 3: 9/55, 26 places…53% winners…16% runners…40% places
• 19^th or worse: 0/42, 0 places

Odds

• 15/17: 20/1 or shorter
  • 22/1-40/1: 1/90, 9 places
  • 50/1+ : 1/57, 2 places

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

• GB: 7/109, 22 places
• IRE: 7/120, 22 places
• FR: 3/83, 20 places
• USA: 0/17, 0 places
• GER: 0/15, 2 places

Weight (excl J-Claim)

• 11-8+ : 0/43, 6 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

• Clear Top Weight: 0/15, 2 places

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H – Run (career)

• 31+ : 0/41, 4 places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

• 18+ hurdle runs: 0/35, 4 places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

• 0 or 1 handicap hurdle runs: 9/96, 27 places
• 7+ : 1/77, 14 places

H-Run (Last Placing)

• 17/17 had placed on at least one of last two starts
  • 0/75, 5 places had not

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

• 0: 0/24, 2 places (may include winning foreign form not included in HRB)
• 1-4 wins: 15/204, 45 places…88% winners…59% runners…68% places
• 5-7: 2/79, 17 places
• 8+ : 0/39, 2 places

H-Win (NH Race Type)

• 0: 0/27, 2 places
• 5+ : 0/40, 6 places

H-Win (Hncp)

• 0 and 1: 13/207, 44 places…76% winners…60% runners…67% places
• 2-4: 4/111, 21 places
• 5+ : 0/28, 1 place

H-Win (Hcap NH)

• 0-1: 15/249, 50 places
• 2: 2/59, 13 places
• 3+ : 0/38, 3 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

• 17/17 had finished 1^st or 2^nd on at least one of last 3 starts
  • 0/78, 4 places did not (‘those with a run’)

Distance Move

• Down in trip by 1.5f or more from last run: 1/50, 11 places

Highest Class Run

• Run in G3 but no higher: 0/29, 5 places
• 8/161, 30 places had run in a G1 previously

Jockey Claims

• No Claims: 16/257, 48 places
• 3lbs: 0/29, 6 places
• 5lbs: 0/34, 5 places
• 7lbs: 1/25, 7 places
• So, claiming jockeys: 1/89, 18 places…6% winners…26% runners…27% places

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

 (LR)-last run – NH Race Type

• Chase: 0/16, 1 place

(LR) No. of Runners

• 3-4: 0/12, 2 places

(LR) Track (of interest)

• Leopardstown: 4/31, 9 places
• Chelt: 3/52, 11 places
• Newbury: 2/25, 6 places
• Sandown: 1/27, 5 places
• Kempt: 1/40, 6 places
• Other one win each: Lingfield/Aintree/Newc/South/Warw/Hunt
• Ascot: 0/54, 10 places
• Haydock: 0/20, 3 places

Trainers (of interest)

• N Henderson: 5/44, 9 places
• G L Moore: 3/13, 5 places
• 1 win each: JJ Quin/M P PBrien/Mrs John Harrington/Jonjo O’Neill/NTD/P Nicholls (1/17, 4places)
• D Pipe: 0/14, 5 places
• A King: 0/11, 3 places
• P Hobbs: 0/23, 10 places
• Miss V Williams: 0/8, 1 place
• W Mullins: 0/11, 0 places

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