How to Analyse a Staying Handicap Chase (video/notes)

how to analyse a staying handicap chase…

Intro

Below you can find my take on ‘how to analyse a staying handicap chase’. Of course there’s no ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ way to approach this great game of ours but with any luck I say something useful or interesting. What follows are a few notes on the process I try to follow/the questions I asked, as I go through each horse in every race I look at. In the video below I try to bring these to life with a few recent examples, a couple of winners and a couple I just missed out on. The first 20 minutes may well suffice, where I touch on one main example which probably highlights all of the below. But for those of you who’re a glutton for punishment you can watch me flick through three further examples. With any luck my renewed focus on my ‘specialist’ area will help me add to the profit pile in the coming months. I’ve every confidence I will. And maybe the below will help you do the same also…

If you’ve any questions, thoughts, comments etc, do fire away in the comments below.

Josh

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How to analyse a staying handicap chase (2m7f+)

  1. Is there more to come from the horse, are they unexposed over fences, do they look progressive? AND/or , are they well handicapped?
  2. Does the horse have the ‘class’ ?
  3. Does the horse have any ‘hot form’?
  4. What is the pace of the race? Who will it benefit, where’s the best place to be? Prominent/lead ?
  5. Will the horse handle today’s conditions, or maybe even improve for them?
  6. Is the horse ‘in form’, and/or what are they doing differently from recent runs, as a reason for why they may perform better today?

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Extras…

  • Trainer stats, jockey stats, trainer form
  • Replay watching
  • Framing the race – how competitive, how many unexposed, muddy marathon chases- will you really need to stay? What attributes required.
  • Is the fav opposable?
  • Assessing price/value
  • The process

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Up to twelve points to consider for each horse for every qualifying race that day. This is too time consuming for the small, everyday punter who just wants a good run for his small stake.

    1. Hi Drew,

      It depends what you’re after I suppose. The purpose of the above is what I do, and I tried to express it in a way that may allow you to pick and choose bits you may find interesting/useful, that you could focus on with however you like to attack a race.

      As with most things, the more you do it, the more automated, and the quicker the process becomes. But my job here is to be the one to put the time in.

      Sadly I don’t know a quick way to win at this game, or a quick way to find horses who will consistently run well (whatever the stake level), and I don’t think you can cut corners as such. But the above doesn’t need to take that long. You could just use the ‘instant’ expert tab on Geegeez Gold (free access to a few cards every day) and i’ve recorded a video for some quick ‘ways in’ for that, which may be more useful…

      https://youtu.be/OTsPBQvZ32k

      Although – as a ‘quick’ strategy – you could home in on handicap chases and try to find horses who you think will make all/get an easy lead. Off the top of my head that’s probably the quickest way I can think of to find horses that may run well and stay there etc

      best of luck,
      Josh

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