2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)
3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)
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None, no races of interest and I’ll leave the class 5s. Some Brighton musings below…
2. Summer Jumps Angles
(all qualifiers = 6/35, 13p, -3.7) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/6, 3p, +1)
4.55 Hunt – Aide Memoire 125/1 UP -1
5.25 Hunt – Topkapi Star 16/1 UP -1
6.25 Hunt – The Knot Is Tied H3 4/1 UP -1
6.35 Hex – Gameface H3 5/1 WON 5/1
3. Flat Turf Angles
(all qualifiers = 3/19, 3p, -12.2) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)
1.00 Bright – Granary Queen H1 G3 5/2 WON 5/2 > 9/4 +2.5
2.55 Nott – Who Cares Wins (10/1<) 9/1 UP -1
4.25 Bright – Fascinating Lips H1 11/4 UP -1
Ffos Las review…
Hmm, as happy as I will be after a -1 result. A solid if unspectacular 3rd from Sherwood’s horse, good fun near the front end and as they turned for home I was happy enough, until that awful side on camera , a shot of Sean giving his a slap and the visible snapping into life – he was about two fences behind by the time he got rolling at Uttoxeter, sadly not the case here! I have over-estimated Peur De Rein’s stamina at a track like that – he’s run as if he hasn’t got home, I don’t think I can blame the ground but maybe that is as soft as he wants it, the times suggesting proper good to soft, if not on the softer side. Given his form/profile i’d be surprised if he doesn’t pick up another Class 4 somewhere, on proper good. He still moved like a well handicapped horse. I don’t know if he needs a flat track but a stiff 2m4/5f may work wonders for him at a good ground Carlisle or something. Or a 2m6/7 around a Market Rasen, a Stratford or Newton A.
Montanna – he was impressive. What idiot opposes a Peter Bowen horse at the moment?! Now 7/16, 11p in the last 14 days, 80%+ rivals or so beaten – and I can see why, M looked stunning in his coat pre race on tv and that combined with the market support had me twitchy. Peter’s light/heat lamps must be working wonders. Fair play to him, maybe rather than being a monkey he’s just been badly outpaced the last twice, at tracks that may not have suited. He enjoyed this wide expanse and had plenty of time to get rolling. I’m still not 100% sure he’s one to trust but he clearly stays very well, and is very well handicapped. (he did have a good piece of form with Champers on Ice off 119 in a C3, at Ffos Las, which suggested it may click one day, I was hoping not today – plenty of his form last year could be ignored given the yard issues – has to have been a bug/virus – and hence why he’s got a few well handicapped ones again now) There could be a fair bit more to come from him and on that evidence 3m4f+ may be within range, provided it’s at a galloping track. His form, while at a lower level, was at least ‘hot’ to some degree – all his recent races had thrown up the odd NTO winner in and around him, i’d hoped/expected Peur may have been long gone if he dropped himself out as per Uttoxeter, but he managed to keep tabs this time. Impressive, and ok form for the grade/time of year. My subjective assessment of value proved to be off on this occasion, there was me hoping for 7s/8s, thinking 9/2 wasn’t big enough if he ended up out the back with too much to do. Do watch his Uttoxeter run back, I suppose you could view that positively given where he came from, and his effort after the last was evidence of how ‘well handicapped’ horses can look when finishing a race off, making ground rapidly.
Elan De Balme is one for the notebook and he moved through that as if his mark is workable, and he may be dropped a couple – again, i’m not sure he really stays 3m, so do keep an eye on him if he drops down in trip at some point, maybe with a more aggressive ride. Although he appeared to enjoy coming through horses there, having threatened to drop himself out again. He’s no world beater and maybe not one to trust but he used to know where the winning post was in France, and Pipe will get him winning at some point. That was only his 13th chase. All three of those should have more wins in them I suspect, hopefully just 1 point loaned on Sherwood’s, to be returned with interest at a future point, for all he doesn’t look the most straightforward.
Eve Johnson Houghton
Star ratings.. nothing has tempted me in from the stats qualifiers above, maybe i’ve got the odd one wrong. I do think Granary Queen is the most interesting, I just don’t like her price (5/2) given she’s a maiden still, but could be anything now stepping into handicaps. Her three races to date have produced 22 subsequent winners between them, so some depth, including plenty of 70/80+ horses. She may find this weak Class 6 handicap, off 61, more to her liking and with a run under her belt. Maybe she’ll make 5/2 look decent, for all that it’s her first run at Brighton but she appeared to handle Bath ok on debut. This is a quite awful contest and shouldn’t take much winning.
Anyway, for those who like noting trainer angles/stats, Eve does fairly well at Brighton in the last 5 years…
- In all handicaps: 19/79, 35p, +32 SP (7/28, 12p in last 2 years)
- Class 6 handicaps: 12/45, 24p, +20 SP
- 7f handicaps: 7/22,11p, +14 SP
- Handicaps, horse aged 3: 9/37, 18p, +22 SP
They may be worth noting for future but clearly any of her handicappers here may be worth a second glance.
She’s got Hedging in the 2.10 and Captain Claret in the 3.20. Having had a quick glance, Hedging may be worth a closer inspection at 9/2, arriving in form after a decent run at Chepstow, down in class and trip, and now 3lb below his last winning mark (59, + GDs 5lb claim) which was over this CD back in Oct 19. They didn’t race here last year. He likes it around here, 3/11, 5p at the track, 2/4,3p over this distance, he’ll have appreciated the rain and won’t mind if more is on its way.
Do with that little lot as you please 🙂 GL with any bets, Josh