Free Members Daily Post: 18/05/21 (complete)

stats quals, Brighton musings…

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

*

1.Tips

None, no races of interest and I’ll leave the class 5s. Some Brighton musings below…

*

2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 6/35, 13p, -3.7) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/6, 3p, +1)

4.55 Hunt – Aide Memoire 125/1 UP -1

5.25 Hunt – Topkapi Star 16/1 UP -1

6.25 Hunt – The Knot Is Tied H3 4/1 UP -1

6.35 Hex – Gameface H3 5/1 WON 5/1

*

3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 3/19, 3p, -12.2) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)

1.00 Bright – Granary Queen H1 G3 5/2 WON 5/2 > 9/4 +2.5

2.55 Nott – Who Cares Wins (10/1<) 9/1 UP -1

4.25 Bright – Fascinating Lips H1 11/4 UP -1

*

4.Other/Updates

Ffos Las review…

Hmm, as happy as I will be after a -1 result. A solid if unspectacular 3rd from Sherwood’s horse, good fun near the front end and as they turned for home I was happy enough, until that awful side on camera , a shot of Sean giving his a slap and the visible snapping into life – he was about two fences behind by the time he got rolling at Uttoxeter, sadly not the case here! I have over-estimated Peur De Rein’s stamina at a track like that – he’s run as if he hasn’t got home, I don’t think I can blame the ground but maybe that is as soft as he wants it, the times suggesting proper good to soft, if not on the softer side. Given his form/profile i’d be surprised if he doesn’t pick up another Class 4 somewhere, on proper good. He still moved like a well handicapped horse. I don’t know if he needs a flat track but a stiff 2m4/5f may work wonders for him at a good ground Carlisle or something. Or a 2m6/7 around a Market Rasen, a Stratford or Newton A.

Montanna – he was impressive. What idiot opposes a Peter Bowen horse at the moment?! Now 7/16, 11p in the last 14 days, 80%+ rivals or so beaten – and I can see why, M looked stunning in his coat pre race on tv and that combined with the market support had me twitchy. Peter’s light/heat lamps must be working wonders. Fair play to him, maybe rather than being a monkey he’s just been badly outpaced the last twice, at tracks that may not have suited. He enjoyed this wide expanse and had plenty of time to get rolling. I’m still not 100% sure he’s one to trust but he clearly stays very well, and is very well handicapped. (he did have a good piece of form with Champers on Ice off 119 in a C3, at Ffos Las, which suggested it may click one day, I was hoping not today – plenty of his form last year could be ignored given the yard issues – has to have been a bug/virus – and hence why he’s got a few well handicapped ones again now) There could be a fair bit more to come from him and on that evidence 3m4f+ may be within range, provided it’s at a galloping track. His form, while at a lower level, was at least ‘hot’ to some degree – all his recent races had thrown up the odd NTO winner in and around him, i’d hoped/expected Peur may have been long gone if he dropped himself out as per Uttoxeter, but he managed to keep tabs this time. Impressive, and ok form for the grade/time of year. My subjective assessment of value proved to be off on this occasion, there was me hoping for 7s/8s, thinking 9/2 wasn’t big enough if he ended up out the back with too much to do. Do watch his Uttoxeter run back, I suppose you could view that positively given where he came from, and his effort after the last was evidence of how ‘well handicapped’ horses can look when finishing a race off, making ground rapidly.

Elan De Balme is one for the notebook and he moved through that as if his mark is workable, and he may be dropped a couple – again, i’m not sure he really stays 3m, so do keep an eye on him if he drops down in trip at some point, maybe with a more aggressive ride. Although he appeared to enjoy coming through horses there, having threatened to drop himself out again. He’s no world beater and maybe not one to trust but he used to know where the winning post was in France, and Pipe will get him winning at some point. That was only his 13th chase. All three of those should have more wins in them I suspect, hopefully just 1 point loaned on Sherwood’s, to be returned with interest at a future point, for all he doesn’t look the most straightforward.

*

Eve Johnson Houghton

Star ratings.. nothing has tempted me in from the stats qualifiers above, maybe i’ve got the odd one wrong. I do think Granary Queen is the most interesting, I just don’t like her price (5/2) given she’s a maiden still, but could be anything now stepping into handicaps. Her three races to date have produced 22 subsequent winners between them, so some depth, including plenty of 70/80+ horses. She may find this weak Class 6 handicap, off 61, more to her liking and with a run under her belt. Maybe she’ll make 5/2 look decent, for all that it’s her first run at Brighton but she appeared to handle Bath ok on debut. This is a quite awful contest and shouldn’t take much winning.

Anyway, for those who like noting trainer angles/stats, Eve does fairly well at Brighton in the last 5 years…

  • In all handicaps: 19/79, 35p, +32 SP (7/28, 12p in last 2 years)
  • Class 6 handicaps: 12/45, 24p, +20 SP
  • 7f handicaps: 7/22,11p, +14 SP
  • Handicaps, horse aged 3: 9/37, 18p, +22 SP

They may be worth noting for future but clearly any of her handicappers here may be worth a second glance.

She’s got Hedging in the 2.10 and Captain Claret in the 3.20. Having had a quick glance, Hedging may be worth a closer inspection at 9/2, arriving in form after a decent run at Chepstow, down in class and trip, and now 3lb below his last winning mark (59, + GDs 5lb claim) which was over this CD back in Oct 19. They didn’t race here last year. He likes it around here, 3/11, 5p at the track, 2/4,3p over this distance, he’ll have appreciated the rain and won’t mind if more is on its way.

Do with that little lot as you please 🙂 GL with any bets, Josh

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. 13.10 Nottingham. selections: Noisy Night and Tay Tay 1/2 pt ew = 2pts.

    Bit of a punt on these two if there are the eight runners going to post to get some place money, hopefully, at least…..in an interesting race with some nice pedigrees given this is a class 5. Tyson, the probable fav at the off has good chance of winning as does Highland Premiere as they are closely matched on my figures…the former running 5.15 f in 61.49 and the latter running 61.19 over 5f in a C5 which is ok for a C5….a class 4 is run on average 60.37 secs over the same distance……what puts me off Tyson is the dam was 0/2….the dam of won a listed race over 6f on gd/firm but not so good on gd/soft and was foaled 15th April so pros and cons for bothe and do ahve the advantage of run experience over those unraced…Tyson was foaled 26 Feb and has secretariat in 6th generation has the better AEI….you could also give Neptune legend a shout with an above average AEI and foaled 28th Feb but both the sire and dam did not act so well on gd to soft and the dam was 0/6 on turf so that would put me off that one.

    Similarly, Top Exhibit’s sire was better on gd to firm rather than gd/soft and so was the dam and 1/14 overall….Hurry Up Hedley is by the sire Mehmas and is respected for getting sprint winners and did act on the going but the dam was 0/12 so that is off putting though does have a respectable AEI……..Unspoken is 19th Feb colt and is interesting ..the sire acting on soft over 6f but not the dam winning on gd to firm so mixed messages but does have an ok AEI and is from a respected stable……..Noisy Night foaled 26th Feb has Galileo in 3rd gen and an above Average Earning Index (AEI) with the sire winning over 6f on soft and the dam winning over 7f on gd/sft with both being stakes winners…………..Tay Tay foaled 26th March with the sire winning over 7f on gs with dam unraced and ok AEI ….just thought the price was generous given that the sire was 4/11 in stakes races….there may be more stamina than sprint in the pedigree hence this is a more speculative selection so may be advisable as an alternative to back Noisy Night e/w with or without a saver on the fav Tyson rather than the two I have put up….just a thought in the light of recent conversations on here regarding write ups, next best, dangers etc……just depends on the going…..will there be more soft than good or vice versa and obviously down to the skill of the jockey’s to choose the best ground (ie. the fastest) to ride on……gd lck if playing with 16.95 pts left if no return today……

  2. After scouring the summer jumps cards i have come up almost empty handed and wouldn’t want to tip a thing, the nearest i came was
    Huntingdon. 6-55. Torrent Des Mottes 17-2 , but there’s 5 in the race that have about a gnats cock hair between them and i’m guessing it’s just who turns up on the day.
    Hexham 5-35. Graystown 14-1, he’s 19lb better off for a 36l defeat by Treshnish over c/d and the softer ground should be a benefit but with First Revolution and Mah Mate Bob knocking on the door probably best left alone.
    Should be back later with any flat musings.

  3. On a day where confidence isn’t that high i’m just having £2 ew per selection and my normal 10p ew L15.
    Brighton.
    2-10. Pour La Victoire 14-1 5p wh, probably a nostalgic selection but you can’t argue with his record here 10/31 19p, 7F looks like it could be his trip now, any more rain would be a big negative.
    3-55. Champagne Highlife 33-1, has now dropped below his mark when winning at Chepstow over 7f in good ground highly speculative but worth the risk in what is a pretty poor field.
    Nottingham.
    3-30. Call My Bluff 17-2, came down to being between him and Cochise and i’ve gone with the value.
    4-00. Velocistar 13-2 5p , won for me at a big price 2 days ago and could well follow up if fully recovered.

  4. Fair to say it’s pretty uninspiring stuff today but at least the racecourses can welcome customers back and today’s courses will welcome the revenue. Has anyone ever been to Hexham? It is on my list of courses to visit although it always looks cold on the TV.

    I had a 33-1 place yesterday and 2 x non-runners. So just 1 race caught my eye, the 340 Wolverhampton
    1pt each-way on
    LOFTY, generally around 16-1 with some 4 places available
    PUCHITA, 25-1 bet365 (3 places)

    Lofty – David Barron has had a couple of handicap winners in the last week. Lofty runs off a mark of 62 but has won off a mark of 70 in the past. Didn’t run a bad race when 8th on soft ground at Thirsk last time and I find it significant Connor Beasley takes the ride today, the first time he has ridden Lofty. A horrid draw of 12 in this 7f race but might be able to slot in.

    Puchita – A limited but honest type who runs off 61 today but won off a mark of 65 at Southwell last October. She didn’t run a bad race on Saturday at Thirsk when 6th to Highjacked and her record at Wolverhampton is 18 runs and 8 places. Decent enough draw of 5 so I’m hoping Cam Hardie can get her prominent.

    A mention but no bet for Amazon Princess who interested me at Brighton with Jason Hart booked.

    1. Hi Paul, just to say I have been to Hexham (I did Newcastle on the same trip) have to say it was a bit grim weather wise but it was early October 2019, venue itself is rustic, very welcoming, to be honest just what I would expect from an old fashioned jump course, viewing was good even though not elevated, easy enough to get a pint & put a bet on – all in close proximity including the parade ring, We really enjoyed it and would highly recommend, I would much prefer to go these kind of courses and give them my money rather than a heaving Cheltenham where it is packed out and you can’t move/get a pint/get a good view

      1. Thanks Harry, I agree I prefer a smaller meeting and a smaller course.
        Thanks for sharing.

    2. A place for Puchita who had every chance and finished 3rd.
      Lofty was given plenty to do but will go into the tracker, finished about 5th

      1. Well done Paul, good staking , a place never seemed in doubt for P, I thought he was just going to pick those up in the final 2f or so and breeze past. Yep that’s surely money loaned on Lofty… had to be ridden like that I suppose, needed a pace collapse and a fair amount of luck, he’s cruised through that like his turn is near/well handicapped.
        Josh

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.