Free Members Daily Post: 17/05/21 (complete)

stats quals

1.Tips

2. Summer Jumps Angles (report TBC)

3. Flat Turf Angles (report TBC)

4.Other/Updates (Punting Pointers HERE>>> )

(Members’ User Guide/Info : READ HERE>>>) (to be updated)

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1.Tips

x1 from me today, as of 9am, write up down below…

#1 – 3.30 FL – Peur De Rien – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) 3rd 4/1>13/2, -1 , no excuse, on that evidence I’ve over estimated his stamina for a test like that around there, looked good for a time. Winner has outstayed them, enjoyed the galloping track and is clearly better handicapped. Sean earnt his fee again. Taking on team Bowen is clearly questionable at the moment!

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2. Summer Jumps Angles

(all qualifiers = 6/35, 13p, -3.7) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 1/6, 3p, +1)

1.45 Ffos Las – Spider Cullen 9/1 UP -1

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3. Flat Turf Angles

(all qualifiers = 2/16, 2p, -12.17) (star rating ‘ ♦ ‘ = 0/2, 0p, -2)

7.35 Leic – In The Breeze 10/1

8.20 Wind – Newbolt 3/1

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4.Other/Updates

TO NOTE: Subscription/the ‘pay wall’ will return on Thursday, more info to follow, sign up available from Wed evening. Thursday’s post will probably be free to air to ensure no issues, before Friday members’ only.

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Write up…

Peur De Rien – 4s is fair here in this line up I think, he has a greater than 20% chance of winning this to my eyes and on his recent form/profile, you could make a case that he should be fav. He’s aged 8, is 2/6,4p over fences, there’s more to come and he arrives on the back of a career best, backed up by his RPR 122. The capper has been kind enough to drop him 1lb for that C3 effort at Perth – he chased home Land of Smiles there (OR 120 going into that race, arrived bang in form, on a hat-trick, and ran a credible 2nd NTO) and Do Not Disturb (since hacked up at Kelso) and with Uptown Harry just behind him (won LTO back at Perth, maybe lucky but still, an in-form, well handicapped horse at time the selection faced him). That form is the best on show in this race over fences, certainly recently, and if he backs that up, is the one to beat here. His win before at Kempton, in a C4, wasn’t too bad either. He beat Big Difference comfortably there and he was going to be a running on third, at least, in the Highlands National, but for coming to grief at the last, 6L down, staying on. So he’s progressive, his form reads well, he’s generally a decent jumper, I think he may prefer this more galloping track, Sherwood’s in form (2/6 last 14 days, 5/20,10p, +26 SP, all runners at Ffos Las in last 5 years), and the horse should race prominently. I think he will find this C4 tempo more to his liking and there’s no excuse not to run a big race here. The ground should be fine, three starts back at Donny was plenty soft enough and he ran right to the line there. There should be enough good in the going today. This is such a weaker race than LTO.

A next best/danger… well it is a so so bunch and nothing in here, at the prices, would be mildly annoying/infuriating! I’ll more than cope with something else winning… I suppose Marble Moon at 3s has to be the main danger, who’ll i’ll live with if hacking up again. That was a poor race LTO and it doesn’t read well ‘on the figures/clock’, for all that may be deceptive. It was a decent RPR and he’s done well in the past from much higher marks. I don’t know, he was niggled at times LTO in that C5, before looming up, and i’d hope the selection’s more lightly raced legs may be long gone before he gets going. That race did fall apart somewhat and wasn’t a great bunch. Maybe he’s more interesting that the Bowen horse, but I was happy to oppose him at 3s and if he beats me, so be it. He can be patiently ridden also and those in front may not be stopping, unlike LTO. It was also only 7 days ago and it will have taken something out of him. The selection is dropping down from a relatively hot class 3 (es for this time of year) , Marble Moon is up in class from a weak C5. Although, when he’s won before he usually does follow up.

I suppose Montanna is of mild interest but maybe when they put the blinkers back on. He’s a lazy sod who’s lost his position the last three times, scrubbed along, and then flew home. He used to be rated in the high teens, and was 4L off an in-form Champers On Ice (a high 130s horse at time/after his win) in a C3 handicap hurdle once. He does have ability, it’s a case of him showing it. (a question of ‘when’ this summer I suspect, Bowen will find something for him) He arrives in form but that was a weak C5 at Uttoxeter, and he dropped himself to last. A remarkable run I suppose, and he flew after the last suggesting this mark is workable. His chase form to date isn’t on the same level as the selection, but this is only his 3rd chase start, the yard are flying and IF he could hold a position, he could give me a headache. I didn’t think 9/2 was overly generous, were he 8s or something I think i’d have him onside as that would be getting towards the pain point on price in this line up. But he could be scrubbed along after fence 3 and never sighted. If they’d played around with headgear i’d have been more tempted. But he could be running me down late.

I thought those three were the most interesting by far in this today and if mine doesn’t run his race, those two should be scrapping it out.

There’s no real longshot I fear/will annoy me. Dr Robin didn’t show enough when last seen, two PUs for all he’d have needed LTO. A question over what ability remains but he is on his last winning mark. I do wonder if they’re running him into fitness and at the same time his mark will fall, before eyeing something up at Cartmel, where he’s a decent record. Too much guesswork today for me, for all he’s proven in all conditions, and I do think the market will guide. Elan De Balme pulled himself up LTO to my eyes, a ‘character’. He has winning chase form in France, now 2/12 over fences, but over shorter. And he has run a few times as if 3m+ stretches him, although beat long before stamina/fitness at Hexham. Maybe he hated the blinkers. I’m sure David will find the key – maybe an aggressive ride over 2m4f/5f would do the trick. I’d want to see more before having a go, for all his Hereford effort was decent, but again gave the impression stronger stayers would have him. And that was a moody run also.

Summit Like Herbie needs much more in this line up than he’s shown recently, but maybe the short break will help him. Even so, I’m not sure where a better/improved effort comes from, for all his mark is dropping. His recent form isn’t on the same level as the selection.

Billy Bronco and Financial Outcome are too unpredictable and don’t win that often, for all they have the ability for a race like this. But FO may find this happening too quickly in these conditions/trip/ground, and Billy needs more than recent efforts, a repeat shouldn’t be good enough and again, i’m not sure where more comes from. I suppose they both arrives on the back of ok runs, which counts for something.

Pace wise…

Dr Robbin can go forward, for a time, Pipes and Twisters. Johnny B usually has the selection handy enough, no excuses. This CD doesn’t usually favour hold up horses and i’ll hope Montanna and Marble Moon get too far back. With any luck Burke is leading over the last, and will just keep galloping.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

9 Responses

  1. From Gerry as posted on Sunday’s post, for today…

    There are strong stats supporting a couple of Rebecca Curtis runners at Ffos Las tomorrow

    2.55 Oscar Ache
    4.40 Lissitzky

    hurdles 7/24 +39
    curtis/bowen hurdles 11/45+38
    Trainer 2/3 last 14 days

    Josh

  2. From John G, as posted in Sunday’s post…

    Five two year old races on 17th. and I do not like any of them for a variety of reasons….low grade with 3 class 5 races and having looked at all three the quality is lacking and the going is a problem in all of them…I thought the C4 at Carlisle would be the one to have the best chance of making a selection but having looked at the race in depth cannot put up a selection with any confidence which is disappointing, having spent the time going through the options…all have holes in them either the draw, going or distance, trainer, jockey and not prepared to put anything up for the sake of making a selection so will wait for better chances, where there are more clear cut profiles that stand out to make a selection worthwhile, rather than having a bet for the sake of having a bet……

    Josh

  3. A few worthy of ew consideration,
    Carlisle.
    2-45. Tangled 20-1, decent 2nd lto and on a good mark every chance, Gometra Ginty 20-1 , upped in class after winning a C5 lto poor last season but had a pretty decent 3yo season if back to that level would have every chance.
    5-00. Breguet Boy 11-1, won a couple at 2m over hurdles and is now tried on the flat at a new trip, has won over 8f the increase to 11f should suit.
    Ffos Las.
    2-55. Putting Green 7-1, short enough price but looked to be coming back to form when a decent 3/14 lto and on a very competative mark.
    3-30. Dr Robin 18-1, happy to take a chance at the price.

  4. Just the one today at Windsor this evening.

    6.20, Stake Acclaim – won last time out over course and distance, wears a tongue tie again, trainer in form, has won in this class, draw OK. 10/3 now, 1.5 points win.

    Good luck Martin

  5. On a quiet day, couple of interesting nags at bigger prices that have interested me:
    GIVE IT SOME TEDDY, 245 Carlisle
    back down to a winning mark, runs better at Redcar, but likely to be ridden prominently and Jason Hart is on board who has ridden the horse to victories before.

    FORTUNE AND GLORY, 820 Windsor
    SONG OF THE ISLES, 820 Windsor
    Fortune and Glory is back down to a winning mark of 73 and trainer Joseph Tuite has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight. Has won on standard to slow all-weather surfaces giving hope the softening ground at Windsor he will handle OK.

    Song of the Isles, 4 wins from 4 runs on soft/heavy ground. Runs off 80 today and Angus Villiers takes 5lbs off. His last winning mark was 77.

    1pt each-way on all 3.

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