Chepstow Pointers

 

A few pointers to flick through with eyes on Chepstow…

 

1.VIDEO – A quick look through which NH trainers have done well since racing resumed on June 1st. At around the 5 minute point I then look at some trainer stats pointers for all Chepstow fixtures since the start of 2015. Do watch this with a notepad as there is the odd trainer to note, trainer/jockey, trainer/race type, trainer/distance, trainer/class etc. Useful for the season ahead.

 

2. Silver Trophy Meeting Pointers – 2 trainers and 2 jockeys to keep an eye on who’ve done well at this fixture in the past. As always with these ‘big meeting notes’ they are small numbers, but looked interesting enough to my eyes. I will post any ‘qualifiers’ in the daily posts.

 

3. Silver Trophy Handicap – Big Race Trends/Stats/Pointers

 

Let’s crack on…

 

*

 

A few stats pointers for a couple of trainers and jockeys who’ve done well at the previous 5 Chepstow curtain raisers…

Two Trainers

Paul Nicholls

    • All Non-major races and Grade 2s
    • Age 6 or younger
    • Results: 42 bets / 16 wins / 23p / 38% sr / +28 SP/ +35 BFSP
      • within these stats… 7/2 or bigger SP: 7/19, 9p, +35 BFSP

 

Nigel Twiston-Davies

    • Horse had 0 runs this season
    • Results: 22 bets / 7 wins / 11p / 32% / +26 SP / +30 BFSP

 

Two Jockeys

Generally speaking all rides for the two mentioned below may be worth a look but…

Paddy Brennan

    • 16-19.5 furlongs
    • Results: 17 bets / 5 wins / 8p / 29% sr / +32 SP / +44 BFSP

 

Sean Bowen

    • 19.5 – 23.5f
    • Results: 13 bets / 4 wins / 6p / 31% sr / +23 SP / +35 BFSP
      • within these stats… 0 runs prev 90 days: 4/7, 5p, +41

*

*

 

SAT: 4.32 – The Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle

12/173, 41p

11/12 finished 1st or 2nd at least once last three runs

    • Did not: 1/40, 5p

11/12 had 0-1 runs at G3 level

    • 2+ : 1/34, 1p

9/12 were IRE bred (origin of horse) (9/85, 23p, +147 BFSP)

    • GB: 1/47, 11p
    • FR: 2/32, 7p

9/12 ran over 17f or shorter LTO (9/37, 13p, +222)

6/12 WON LTO (6/42, 15p, +98)

6/12 ran within the last 60 days (6/37, 10p, +150)

5/12 ridden by 3,5,7lb claimers (6/46, 12p, +21 BFSP)

 

Other

    • Those with 1 win this season: 3/12, 6p, +108
    • Did not run over hurdles LTO: 0/29, 2p

 

Trainers (prev 12 renewals)

    • D Skelton: 2/6, 3p
    • P Hobbs: 2/18, 6p
    • E Williams: 2/9, 3p
    • X1: S Leech/ V Dartnall / D McCain/ D Pipe / NTD
    • A King COLIN TIZZARD:  0/14,0p
    • P Nicholls: 0/17, 4p

*

That’s all for this post.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Cannot agree with the decision to dump the Novices Handicap Chase

    Add the Mares Chase in if you like, make one day longer, start 35 mins earlier or whatever is needed. However, note that the Mares and Mares Novices races have been dominated by 3 or 4 yards and the Mares Chase will be too. Nicholls, mullins, Henderson, Elliott and De Bromhead will dominate.

    The Novives Hcp chase has seen a few yards have their debut Festival win and others get off a long, long stretch on the cold list.

    I think it’s a crying shame frankly and it will see an even larger percentage of winners going to the big barns

    Rick 07/10/20 3:59 PM Reply


    • Hmm, I’m still not sure.

      Outwith making it a 5 day fez obviously something had to go.

      I fully agree with having the race at the Festival – obv I’m biased with Super and that could be a fun day out – but for the breed and future of NH, it’s the right move. Jumps mares do give you a chance of a financial return post racing, and having a programme where there’s also a Festival chase as a carrot, can only be a good thing – for breeders etc. It also means longer term a better quality of NH horses, being bred from mares more proven over sticks etc. Mares are great for Syndicates also, given the prog book, and this only adds to it.
      I agree RE who may end up dominating it but there we go.

      The Novices Handicap will still be run at Sandown, weekend before – so a decent pot for those types to aim for. But, it has taken horses away from graded races they could have run in – so will make them better – likes of The JLT. And it was in effect a conditions/limited handicap – well in sense that 6/7lb spread. Some of those could get another win earlier in season, and/or end up in The Stable Plate, and make that even more competitive.

      But, it’s subjective debate. Suspect they’ve pondered what to remove for an age, and are clearly ready to have a 5 day Festival yet – which may well come one day.

      Josh

      Josh 07/10/20 4:36 PM Reply


      • You make my point for me

        It will be even harder for non-top barns to get a Festival winner on the board, many might as well not bother sending their runners to face the mighty battalions as they have no chance of beating them.

        If you want to boost the runners in Graded races and make them more competitive you could get rid of the Marsh Chase and Ryan Air

        Make those horses run in the Arkle / QMCC or the RSA and Gold Cup, or in the many handicaps if not good enough to run in Championship races.

        There will be fewer and fewer small yards the way the sport is being run. Be like Ireland where 3 barns collect the bulk of the winners.

        Rick 07/10/20 5:54 PM Reply


        • The only main argument i’m making is that I agree with the intro of that Mares race. Who is going to dominate race X isn’t a justifiable reason for introducing or dropping IMO. In a few more years the mares division will be very competitive and may well actually end up giving the odd smaller yard a chance in a Festival graded race. Given how powerful some yards are getting, it probably is only a matter of time before Willie, HDB, Gordon, PN, Hendo are regularly aiming a graded horse at that Novice handicap, and dominating it.

          You can make pros and cons for various other races to drop. And I don’t disagree with your thoughts on those two.

          At least the race/conditions/pot will still exist at Sandown, so fits into timings the same. That opportunity still there for a trainer with a horse suitable. I don’t like the sport being all about The Festival anyway.

          The smaller yards point is valid but a more general problem, in amongst many other problems for the sport.

          Josh

          Josh 07/10/20 6:05 PM Reply


          • Certain trainers, such as messrs Elliott and Mullins do focus in on the festival, but plenty other trainers do not. Nicholls and Hendo like to pick up decent prizes as the season progresses. Some trainers are overrated, Twister for one. IMO.

            I know that Josh is keen on Mares races from his Twitter posts. I am not but it is personal preference. There are some crappy races at the festival but that is the product of extending it to four days.

            Anyway….looking forward to Chepstow this weekend. Hopefully the ground is OK? Paul Nicholls starts to roll out his charges here, so we should see some good horses turning up.

            Martin Colwell 08/10/20 9:57 AM Reply


          • Is there an argument for only allowing a trainer a max of 2 entries in the festival races?

            Chris Albin 08/10/20 11:20 AM Reply


  • Just paused at 3 minutes to say that you don’t seem to pay too much attention to A/E, so far at least (maybe I’ll eat my words for that soon enough).
    Is that because it’s a general flick through or is it something you don’t see as important as S/R or profit?
    If the profit and S/R are decent but the A/E is hovering below 1 or even lower I would be wary of the overall figures. What’s the consensus on A/E eh?

    Chris Albin 08/10/20 11:16 AM Reply


    • Well it is meant to be quick run through/ideas and not too technical – and you can pause the thing and stare at the AE! 🙂 You can pause and if you so wish focus on angles/data that interests you most. Or watch with ‘way in’ / ‘oh that’s interesting’ eyes 🙂 There’s no ‘back all of these’ instruction in the video.

      Obviously you want the AE as big as possible but with these angles you’re always dealing with small numbers and where a few of the placed horses going in changes things.

      Josh

      Josh 08/10/20 11:24 AM Reply


      • Staring initiated 🙂

        Chris Albin 08/10/20 11:29 AM Reply


Post A Reply