Members Daily Post: 08/10/20 (complete)

Quals, numerous updates/content to flick through

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None. 

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (2/11,5p, +4.3)

12.45 FL – Goldencard 2/1 UP -1

2.20 FL – Kings Monarch (12/1< best) 12/1 WON 12/1> 5/1 (10p R4, 10.8/1)

3.20 FL – Uno Mas 6/5 3rd -1

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(1/15, 4p, -9.5)

1.30 Exet – Don Juan Du Gouet (8/1<) 13/2 UP  13/2> 14/1, -1

3.50 FL – Mykonos Ammos (20/1<) 11/2 UP 11/2 > 16/1

E Lavelle 

(1/7,3p, -1.5)

2.30 Exet – Celtic Joy (14/1<) 9/2 UP

 

4.Other/Updates

NOTE: this weekend – my mind has well and truly moved onto the jumps and as such there won’t be any flat content from me this weekend. Apols for any inconvenience/annoyance, instead…

 

CHEPSTOW : NEW POST HERE>>>

Includes…

1.VIDEO – A quick look through which NH trainers have done well since racing resumed on June 1st. At around the 5 minute point I then look at some trainer stats pointers for all Chepstow fixtures since the start of 2015. Do watch this with a notepad as there is the odd trainer to note, trainer/jockey, trainer/race type, trainer/distance, trainer/class etc. Useful for the season ahead.

2. Silver Trophy Meeting Pointers – 2 trainers and 2 jockeys to keep an eye on who’ve done well at this fixture in the past. As always with these ‘big meeting notes’ they are small numbers, but looked interesting enough to my eyes. I will post any ‘qualifiers’ in the daily posts.

3. Silver Trophy Handicap – Big Race Trends/Stats/Pointers

Check out that post HERE>>> 

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Shortlisting ideas when using any content as a ‘way in’…

  • You could focus on those top 3/4 in the market: 70% of 8-14 runner jumps handicaps won by horses in Top 4 market – obviously plenty will be backed into that position! And for smaller fields that’s obviously even higher.
  • PACE/race position, especially for chasers – but focusing on those who you think may lead/race prominently. That’s always a good place to focus, ignoring any ‘hold up’ types – generally speaking.
  • Trainer form – focusing on those who you think represent ‘in form’ yards. You could use the RTF% (run to form, using RPRs I think) metric in the Racing Post cards, for example. Focusing on those 50% +, or 60/70%, whatever.
  • Jockey: a new booking, significant? and/or trainer/jockey have a good track record, generally, or in race type etc.

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Youtube Channel: You can find all previous videos HERE>>>

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Supplementary stats…

Just looking through some of the quals above – i’ve detailed the odd other stat that caught my eye – this isn’t a comment on said horse’s form/profile chance, but to use as you please and not just for these quals – maybe a trainer/jockey’s other runners/rides on the card / to also note for the future if desired…

 

1.30 Exet – Don Juan Du Gouet 

    • Twister has done ok with ‘stable switchers’ on their first start for him…  4/20,8p +22 SP in the last 2 years. The horse won on seasonal return for Daly last season, so clearly has, or had, a constitution that allowed him to get fit enough at home. The horse is a CD winner also – interesting. And the only one in the race to date. 

 

2.30 Exet – Celtic Joy 

    • Lavelle and Ben Jones have done well in the last year, esp in handicaps… 9/28, 14p, +26 SP. 
    • Emma hasn’t done too badly in Exeter handicaps in the last 5 years… 7/27, 15p, +22 SP 

 

3.50 FL – Mykonos Ammos 

    • Tom Bellamy appears to ride Ffos Las very well… 9/32, 15p, +31 in the last 5 years. He’s 3/8, 5p +21 in the last year. He’s got a couple of rides earlier on the card for D Hamer. 
    • Twister is 4/14, 8p in NHF races at the course in last 5 years… 3/7, 5p when aged 4. 

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I think that’s enough for Thursday, GL with any bets,

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Two non runners on Wednesday with the dutching. I have decided to go win only and 1 point stake unless stated otherwise.

    Thursday – 2.10 Ayr.

    Betsey Trotter and Danzan – both are down 2 classes, have won in this class, have won at this distance, are drawn OK.

    Good luck Martin

  2. Rong Rong 4.10 Southwell 12/1 gen

    Another Easterby debutant on the sand,its sds only ride here which may mean something
    or nothing,he rides a lot of King Power horses,but D Allen has been jockey since change of stable.
    Would normally be looking closely at Karl Burkes runners here,but stable gone pretty cold so will wait and watch for moment.

  3. My tv viewing for Thursday.

    4.35S Flamboyant Joyaux
    12.30A Intrusive
    1.05 A Royal Regent
    2.40A Forever a Lady
    3.10A Hoylake
    3.40A Bollin Neil
    6.45 S Xcelente

    Mike

  4. COLINS BETS
    Southwell
    5.40 Puchita
    6.45 Break The Silence
    7.45 Total Distraction
    well with all this rain around would not fancy betting on the turf today.
    Colin

  5. 105 Firewater
    140 Big City
    210 Quick Look
    220 Lord Bryan
    240 Strong Steps
    340 Tor
    400 Zulu
    510 Bernard Spierpoint
    530 Amandas Wish
    600 Creedmoor
    645 Robero
    815 Escalade

  6. had a couple of days off to recharge the batteries ready for the weekend.
    just 2 races today both on the all weather bit cover c3+ and aw c4+ all weather video replay lists.
    CHELMSFORD
    18-00 she do / the whipmaster
    19-00 lancelot du lac / a momentofmadness / benny and the jets
    my pick
    A MOMENTOFMADNESS 11/2 dropped back to a c3 for the first time in a while. last won off a mark 0f 95 and a is running off 89 today. forgetting last run at doncaster he showed a glimmer of form in a good c2 at goodwood finishing a close 3rd. not a massive price but should be there abouts at the buisness end of the race.

    other stuff
    AYR 12-30 intrusive 8-1 hit my ayr sprinters angle which currently sits at 122bets/24wins/36place +99.15

    as always good luck today 🙂

  7. Well the donkeys I put up yesterday mustered one win for just over 2pts profit. The other 18 bets I made provided me with a spectacular day. None of them won!!!! A spectacular implosion!! Around the -16pt mark on the day. A few 2nd’s and 3rd’s but they’re just losers. Should of played that Beck song full blast all day yesterday!!
    Normality of sorts resumes today with just the 11 bets, most of them around the 5/1 mark so no tilting at windmills in respect of price today. One of those days where 3 or 4 need to win for a decent day so I’m expecting another loss today. With an expected losing streak of around 43 anything could happen in the next few days!!
    Variance the great leveller and constant thorn in my side!

    1. Yep, tough decision for him in terms of family etc – but not in terms of horses it seems – some indication as to what he thinks of Tizzard’s string this season. He was their big race jockey anyway really, if available, and would fly over during the week, but obviously what with Covid can’t keep going back and forward. Suspect that was tricky given Jessie’s string etc – but he can go back for their G1 race days, so should work out ok. Tizzard’s certainly won’t be lacking for riding power, what with Robbie to call on/will ride most, and Jonjo Junior, and Harry C if he’s not on Paul’s etc.
      A great addition to our daily entertainment anyway.

      Josh

  8. 17-10 southwell miss maxi 40-1 not devoid of form and trainer and jockey do well here. loose change e/w.

    1. My report into him? He hasn’t had a bad year having just looked… well now 3/21 I think after that double! 2015-17 he was 0/50 odd from what I can see. Truly a resurgence!

      Josh

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