Members Daily Post: 07/10/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None. 

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (1/8,3p, -4.5)

2.45 Lud – Proper Ticket 4/1 (as of 8am)

3.20 Lud – Tintern Theatre 15/2

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD 

(1/13, 4p, -7.5)

3.20 Lud – Tintern Theature (8/1<) 15/2

 

4.Other/Updates

 

Jumps Profiles 2020/21: I’ve got my 15 trainers now and will release the report/research at a later date, probably just for anyone who joins the fun from Nov 1st. I don’t think there should be too many qualifiers, 1-2 on average per day  with any luck – hopefully not many silly days as was the case with the Flat. It’s hard to judge when using historical data though but the stats suggest we won’t be overwhelmed. All mainly focus on handicaps as usual and have no more than 4/5 ‘rules’ with plenty of logic and plenty of angles looking at those lightly raced in handicaps and/or with not many handicap wins. There’s no odds caps, deliberately so this time, so we don’t need to faff around with what ‘qualifies’ on price etc.

Time will tell whether they work as a ‘systematic’ portfolio but I’d obviously take them making 40-50 points over a season. I’m hopeful they will, but I always am. With any luck a 50-75 point bank will be enough.  The Flat ones didn’t do too badly, well, until September! (that final flat results update is incoming later in the week) They should highlight plenty of winners though, some at a prices, which means they could be a useful ‘way in’, as with anything listed on here, and with only a handful each day, a fun challenge to see if you can make them pay that way. Shortlisting ideas…

 

  • You could focus on those top 3/4 in the market: 70% of 8-14 runner jumps handicaps won by horses in Top 4 market – obviously plenty will be backed into that position! And for smaller fields that’s obviously even higher.
  • PACE/race position, especially for chasers – but focusing on those who you think may lead/race prominently. That’s always a good place to focus, ignoring any ‘hold up’ types – generally speaking.
  • Trainer form – focusing on those who you think represent ‘in form’ yards. You could use the RTF% (run to form, using RPRs I think) metric in the Racing Post cards, for example. Focusing on those 50% +, or 60/70%, whatever.
  • Jockey: a new booking, significant? and/or trainer/jockey have a good track record, generally, or in race type etc.

 

Anyway, just a few ideas, whether using any content on here as a ‘way in’ or more generally.

 

Brian Ellison 

A ‘short’ (under 17 minutes!) video with a look at a possible Brian Ellison resurgence and an angle to note (repeated below the video). We shall see how long it lasts. It is recorded in part with the odd musing for any HRB users/those who like doing their own research. It starts with a quick reference to an excellent article Matt B wrote over at Geegeez, which is worth reading if you haven’t… you can find that HERE>>> 

 

 

Brian Ellison ‘Angle’ (all covered/picked apart in video above)

  • National Hunt Runners
  • Oct – End April
  • Age 3-6
  • Jockey: H Brooke / D Cook / B Hughes
  • Any odds
  • 2019 >

39 bets / 16 wins / 20 places / 41% w sr / +70 SP / +83 BFSP / BF AE 2.47 

Wins from 11 different horses to date. Inc 5 who’ve won just once who are 5 or under, so with any luck he can get more out of them in weeks ahead. Time will tell.

There is one ‘qualifier’, who’s one of the multiple winners in the angle and prob won’t be a price… 1.45 Sedge : Snookered 

As always, any thoughts/questions always welcome.

Josh

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • No joy with the dutching on Tuesday.

    On Wednesday I am tackling the 4.30 at Ludlow with two unexposed seven year old’s returning from breaks.

    Canelo – has won in this class, has won at the distance.

    Morning Vicar – was going well when fell last time out, trainer in form, has won at the course.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 06/10/20 8:46 PM Reply


  • Evening, once again, some great content. Will you be posting details nearer the time for the November sign up?

    Michael

    Michael 06/10/20 9:55 PM Reply


    • Hi Michael, thanks. We need some more consistent ‘once agains’ this winter, hence the new signing to help a) provide that and b) give me space to do more of what I think I’m good at.

      Anyway… yep I will. You won’t miss it! The site is getting a compete design overhaul and thats nearly done I think. They’ll be a few technical things to sort.

      But the plan is the Members Club will return on 1st Nov with a cheap or free 30 day or so trial, before a payment of X, with then a 30 day money back guarantee after that, on request. What will in effect be a 60 day trial.
      I’m just agonising/pondering what X will be!
      I think it will be a one off winter season ticket through to end of April. In part because I don’t know what’s going to be here next May-Sept etc. And I want people to commit to a season and see where we get to, together.
      I’m conscious that what I’m offering, esp with the new signing, is ‘new/untested’ to a point and last season/year wasn’t great for me, for various reasons, which I’ve addressed I think. And all that will I think make the costs cheaper than what on paper I think it could be in time, given what I hope may be some of the best jumps content/experience/community around, ticking nearly every box you may want ticked for a winter jumps experience. But time will tell on that front.
      Josh

      Josh 06/10/20 10:23 PM Reply


      • Cheers for the heads up. Been mega busy today so only just found time to reply. Looking forward to it.

        Anonymous 07/10/20 8:50 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh…hope your plans are progressing ok…as part of the site re-vamp are you keeping the Free to access blog going along side of the Jumps membership site? As you know did try the jumps for a year but like you in relation to the Flat not really my thing but would still like to contribute in a Free blog if that is still in plans to include this option over the winter….all the best as always….

    silver 07/10/20 9:39 AM Reply


    • Hi John,

      Well the redesign is lots of cosmetics to a point – the delivery option won’t change I don’t think in the sense of there being daily blog posts etc – I haven’t planned to do a daily free blog in truth, as most of the time i’ve nothing to put in it and it can make everywhere a bit cluttered. I’ll have a ponder on options in respect to that/engagement side. There will be free content still obv, as there always has been, but how regular/what etc is the question. My new members software allows me to do some fancy things with certain posts/access I think, for different levels.

      best, Josh

      Josh 07/10/20 9:56 AM Reply


      • Appreciate your focus will be on making the plans you have a success…will watch this space…cheers…

        silver 07/10/20 10:33 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    4.15 Nottingham Motahassen
    8.15 Newcastle Algaffaal
    Colin

    cleafe 07/10/20 10:11 AM Reply


  • Quite enjoyed watching your Ellison video Josh. One thing worth reiterating from it is checking the ratio of horses to wins which you done well. Been aware of that trapdoor for a while. Used to be so frustrating when I’d thought I’d struck gold only to find 2 horses had won 10 races each and the other 20 had only won 1 between them!

    I enjoyed reading Matt’s article too which gave me a few idea’s too, so thanks for putting the ink up for that. I did laugh at a comment which said ‘Too much writing, not enough graphs’. I guess it’s a huge jump from Peppa Pig to trainer rankings!

    Chris Albin 07/10/20 10:15 AM Reply


    • These angles are always temporary and never last for several years. If they do make a profit then make the most of them. Coming away from trainers and jockeys and focusing on courses, I like to focus on horses that do better there than anywhere else. Pause for breath…..

      This works on the all weather and over fences more than on the flat in my experience. An example of this is Lingfield on the sand and Cheltenham over fences. I am not going to drill in to various courses but food for thought for you.

      Martin Colwell 07/10/20 10:27 AM Reply


      • I think you’re technically right about angles never last for years certainly not in their original form but they kind of do if you tweak them from time to time and certainly in some of my cases they’ve morphed into something totally different over years but are the same trainer. Maybe some go full circle, I used to record all changes I made to each angle/system but with over a hundred and working during the day it was too much and probably a waste of effort.
        Courses is an interesting angle and to me requires a different skill set/area of knowledge that I don’t have. I get that some tracks are similar but I know it’s not that simple. I hear now and again that 5f at course A is like 6f at course B or horse X runs well at this course but is running over a different distance and blah de blah de blah, that just makes my brain hurt!! I’m sure there’s gold in there somewhere but it wrecks my head!! Hope you do well at it as I guess its something that’s relatively overlooked in the markets.

        Chris Albin 07/10/20 10:55 AM Reply


    • I feel like i’ve just received gold star (only 1) for my homework project Chris!! haha. 🙂

      haha – the balance between type of content always tricky – those videos above seemingly more for the systems purist of which we’re up to 43 views, although the Blinkers one is approaching 300, so clearly some appetite for such things – although as I included the concluding ‘micro’ above, unless interested in process/my research ideas, many prob won’t bother watching. Not that masses have 17 minutes to spare on such ramblings mid week.

      Yep, checking the horse numbers tricky and drawing right conclusions/what you do with it. I did agonise over Christian Williams but I have included him in the end, in my final 15. Uno Mass has won 7 handicaps for him, and a few others 3 or so – but stripping those out and still look good – and thinking about how he trains etc – provided he keeps re-stocking/getting youngsters in, his ability to rack up sequences won’t be restricted to just a couple of horses, whereas that could be questionable with some of the smaller yards.

      Brian – well he’s x3 horses in Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow this year which may be some sign of a resurgence! Just found his site/news updates – Snookered been schooling well apparently – we shall see.

      Josh

      Josh 07/10/20 10:38 AM Reply


      • Haha me dishing out gold stars, if only I was anywhere near that level, sadly a million miles away!!
        I’ve found horses to follow lists frustrating in the past, they can be so hit and miss and just muddy the waters even more for me of course. They have their uses, especially to people who actually know about racing which doesn’t really apply to me that much!

        Chris Albin 07/10/20 11:19 AM Reply


        • Oh – i’m anti in the sense of tracking loads of them – i’m not sure how that’s useful and can blind you – and of course many are unexposed horses from bumpers/a few runs in hurdles etc. Always a useful read though for educational purposes- always something to pick up – and Paul’s book has some intriguing jockey interviews – Mark Howard’s has some interesting bits, inc with Hen and pointers etc.

          I like flicking through, but will then have them on the side, for reference purposes, if something pops up in a race i’m looking at. If however you specialise in bumpers/novice/hncp hurdles say, they will be even more useful. And maybe if you’re a big spring Festival Ante Post player.

          I’m not sure if i’ve gone of ‘horses to follow’ more generally – as they can cloud judgement, and maybe it’s more about doing a proper job on the race of choice, esp hot form, watching last few races etc.

          Josh

          Josh 07/10/20 11:32 AM Reply


  • Nothing i really want to have a go at today so just a ew L15 at Nottingham,
    1-30. The Golden Cue 16-1
    3-10. Gulf Of Poets 16-1
    3-45. Deinonychus 10-1
    4-15. Pioneering 16-1

    martin whittle 07/10/20 10:23 AM Reply


  • Well I’m gonna continue putting up a handful of my system bets until I get bored of it or until I can walk properly again! Yesterday’s are still running but still managed to scrape a 1/2 pt profit on the day from all the others. Usually average around 10 a day but 17 yesterday and 24 today is a bit mad. It’s the crossover of codes that’s doing it. I hope it doesn’t break me this month!! I want to get to December for a whole year (minus covid) and see where I’m at. Currently 278/1741 – 16%, +441pts BFSP.
    Todays selected bunch of donkeys are –
    Notts 15:45 – Alpine Mistral
    Notts 16:15 – Pioneering
    Notts 16:15 – Stormingin
    Lud 16:30 – Demachine
    Newc 19:45 – Amasova
    Newc 19:45 – Camerily Joe
    Very unlikely any will win so here’s hoping my other 18 bets will cover it!

    Chris Albin 07/10/20 10:35 AM Reply


  • Well, it’s overwhelming Wednesday, so here’s my contribution:-
    100 Expresso Freddo – should win
    310 Lunar Jet – hoping for a fast run race
    320 Cresswell Legend – ideal conditons, well in.
    329 Lady Chuffnell – expecting Ben A. to have readied this
    345 The Met – has the form
    415 Hooroo – the wetter the better
    425 Dewey Road – Dobbsy to get this speedy type home
    430 Ruthless Article – has his ground
    440 Newmarket Warrior – CD favourite
    615 Locket – dropped in grade
    715 Hurstwood – better than these on his past form
    745 Ventura Vision – needs a straight 7f
    815 Highly Sprung – against lessers here, value

    Chris 07/10/20 10:55 AM Reply


    • Haha not just me being overwhelmed then

      Chris Albin 07/10/20 11:06 AM Reply


      • No, I thought we were in the same boat when I posted as I omitted shorties and outsiders and concentrated on mid market for a change.

        Chris 07/10/20 12:41 PM Reply


        • Ah, I’ll still back all mine regardless, just like to put a handful up for a bit of self entertainment!
          Best of luck

          Chris Albin 07/10/20 1:02 PM Reply


    • wd chris on donald ducks son (maybe grandson ?? 🙂 ) road ! 🙂 4.25 K.
      Thanks for the affirmation .. was on my sysyetem as well 😉

      cheers
      lgb

      GEORGE B 07/10/20 4:47 PM Reply


      • I couldn’t resist posting these despite my wanting to wait for the proper AW season to start.

        All these need to bounce back from recent poor form but are big prices if a few blips are forgiven, maybe just 4tbp eh GB?

        7.30 Kempton Delilah Park and Revolutionise

        8.00 Kempton Busby.

        Good luck anyone playing on the sand tonight 🙂

        Mark Curtis 07/10/20 4:55 PM Reply


        • HI MC ……….. the lgb ovens are in bits ..again !!! ……….. can’t confirm or deny anything as yet … but i shall have a look and hopefully follow you in … 🙂
          cheers
          lgb

          GEORGE B 07/10/20 6:06 PM Reply


          • Should have waited till 22 October 🙂

            Mark Curtis 07/10/20 7:38 PM Reply


    • I made Hurstwood 3rd 10/1,my best bet mentally (the price was huge), but it was beaten in a three way (2 noses) and never had a clear run. That’s why all selections are ‘equal’- I would feel robbed otherwise.

      Chris 07/10/20 7:33 PM Reply


      • Y’day’s results:A winner 6/1, 3 placed @ 14/1, 10/1, 10/1, 9 losers.

        Chris 08/10/20 9:52 AM Reply


  • Is racingtv the go to site for watching races, I signed up for a month due to me resting and was a bit miffed they don’t seem to cover the AW.

    Chris Albin 07/10/20 11:22 AM Reply


    • RTV has jockey club courses and some others, Sky Sports the others. You can’t watch all on one channel. Newcastle, Lingfield and Wolves are on Sky Sports racing.

      Josh

      Josh 07/10/20 11:34 AM Reply


      • Hmmm… Sky, not for me thanks.

        Chris Albin 07/10/20 2:54 PM Reply


  • A nice win for Algaffal on Friday evening, with the excellent Harry Russell getting him up on the line. He has 4 rides this evening including Algaffal again but I’m swerving them all, which hopefully I won’t regret.

    1 for me at Newcastle this evening.

    Results to date; 2/6, 3p (+11.0)

    7.15 Deolali 1pt e/w 8/1: Was picked off close home by CD specialist Great Colaci LTO. A repeat of that run from a better draw should hopefully see him go close.

    Steven M 07/10/20 11:45 AM Reply


  • Price has gone a bit (still 11/2) for Devil’s Angel 8.15 Newcastle – I think it hits the Jedd O’Keeffe angle, have backed it on that basis anyway!

    James Barker 07/10/20 6:06 PM Reply


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