Micro Monday: Emma Lavelle

 

Emma Lavelle 

Emma Lavelle has long been flagged in these parts at this time of year – a late summer/autumn trainer to keep an eye on. Given it’s coming up to her time of year I thought i’d flag the revised angle. I am very much wanting to keep the daily content Flat focused for now and I won’t be flagging qualifiers in August. Of course any of you are welcome to post/track in the comments if you so wish! 🙂 Next month sees the traditional start of ‘Twister Season’ and as such from September I may well ease back into the jumps with qualifiers from those angles and the one below.

Emma has really changed gear in the last season or two it seems and I suspect the success of Paisley Park has led to an increase in the quality and quantity of stock. I think it took a while to settle into their new home, combined with having some illness issues for a time. They’ve also upgraded facilities which may well have helped. She also seems keen to use Adam Wedge as much as possible and he’s on the rise also. If their July is any indication of what is to come, they could have a productive few months ahead…

Micro Angle

  • Trainer: Emma Lavelle
  • Handicaps
  • August/Sept/Oct/Nov
  • Horse Runs In Previous 90 Days: 0 or 1
  • Horse runs in handicap national hunt type: 7 or fewer (ie, running in a handicap chase, 7< handicap chase runs)
  • 14/1 or shorter SP (guide, 16/1+ 0/13, 2p)

 

This year for the first time Lavelle appeared to target July, with 5/14,8p + 20 hitting the other rules above (having been 0/4,0p in the years before). So, it could be we have missed the boat although I think she’s likely to have a bigger string than she’s previously had, so there should be plenty to go to war with in the coming weeks. She can clearly ready them at home and she’s very good with younger, unexposed, horses. Those 30 winners have come from 23 different horses which is obviously a positive.

Other pointers from within this angle :-

  • Handicap chase or handicap hurdle debut… 12/24, 16p, +48 BFSP
  • Horse dropping down in distance from last start: 20/48, 26p, +101 BFSP
  • Horse WON last start: 8/20, 11p, +34 BFSP

 

Fingers crossed a profitable few months ahead. Qualifiers should be easy to find and as I said I won’t be posting any in August, but will likely included them when the ‘Monthly Trainers’ section returns in September, with a Jumps focus. Given the nature of the jumps season I suspect not much has change, planning wise. The main season was obviously cut short by 6 weeks or so. Whether that means some trainers will get going sooner, we shall see. If the ‘winter’ horses were on their holidays 6 weeks sooner than planned, they could well have been brought back in 6 weeks sooner, and horses that may have appeared in November may now appear in October, October appearing in September etc. The ‘going’ may ensure normal routines are kept to but it ‘could’ mean that racing is more competitive earlier on than in years gone by. Maybe. Or many of the trainers will stick to their usual autumn routines. Time will tell! The market will cotton onto Lavelle at some point but there were no signs of that last season within this angle. Fingers crossed they keep appearing at bigger prices than they should be.

Josh

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  • very interesting ………..
    Another one to adapt onto my hrb system 🙂 thanks as ever 🙂

    GEORGE B 04/08/20 9:28 AM Reply


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