Daily Members Post: 04/08/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

(96 tips/15 wins/32 places (inc wins) /+77.6 points, advised/+71.75 Betfair SP)

#1 – 4.50 Catt – Parys Mountain – 1 point win –  WON 12/1 – 10p R4 – 10.8/1 > 7/1  (7.83 BFSP)

that’s all for today, as of 9am, write up…

We shall see if i’ve picked the right Easterby horse here, more on Look Out Louis in a moment… this horse is well handicapped to win again and has won better races than this. He’s 1/6, 3p over the CD and is at his best when ridden more forward – he’s no excuse from stall 1. Provided he breaks he should get out and either lead or track the pace if something goes on. I found the jockey booking interesting given Jimmy is 1/2 on the horse and he’s 6/15,8p +26 when riding for Tim around here. David Allan is at Beverley which could be significant but he doesn’t have a great record on this horse, and I did think this booking looked significant. He ran well 3 starts ago at Thirsk and a repeat of that would put him bang there in this line up. I’m not sure he wants rattling fast ground these days so can ignore two starts back. He didn’t appreciate being held onto LTO I didn’t think, pulling for his head – but he did make some headway and it wasn’t an atrocious run. I think he’ll enjoy being back here and there’s some potential rain around, which he will enjoy, if it falls. His last 3 wins have come off 77, 82 and 76, running off 74 here. He still shows ability and is very much a question of time in these 4YO+ races. If he runs his race he is no 12s shot in this line up, from this stall.

Of the rest… I was happy to take the Fav on given he does have it to prove on turf – although more an unknown, and he did get the run of the race LTO. He is drawn wide here and if they try to go forward again may well end up using too much gas. I can hope so anyway. Its his first run here also and not every horse handles coming down that hill/swinging into the straight. On strict handicapping terms he is chucked in and I won’t be shocked if he wins again, but a few questions there that can give those of us opposing him some hope.

Look Out Louis – part of me thinks I may have chosen the wrong one, we shall see. I’ve had a saver on at 12s, just in case. The odd run of his suggests he may want 7f now but he has that to prove – his running on effort 2 starts back here may have been a case of the others slowing down markedly. There’s no doubt he’s handicapped to win again, much like his stablemate. I can’t make up my mind on Cam Hardie, he does ride plenty of no hopers – he’s 4/71 in last 30 days, 1/28 last 14, 4/139, 29p at the track. The horse can be ridden forward or held up – IF they want Parys to go forward I didn’t think they’d both go at it. If he is held up again, esp up in trip which would make sense, from his low draw, it could be he has a wall of horses in front up the straight/needs luck, or has to swing wide and down the middle. It’s not impossible they go hard enough though and it sets up for him. Tricky. But I preferred the other one for tipping purposes. I’ll prepare for a late rattle down the outside as those near the front fall in a hole. But, he should be winning again at some point this season when it all clicks.

I thought it looked open enough, if the Fav doesn’t answer said questions, but there was nothing else i’d want to wade in with in this. I suppose Nubough would be the most interesting of the more lightly raced ones/4YOs – drawn low, yard in form, mark dropping. I’d want to see a bit more before wading in but he could have badly needed his return. We shall see. But Everything has a question or two. GL

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

4.15 Catt – Kilig (9/1<) 14/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

4.50 Catt – Look Out Louis (9/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ 3rd 

4.50 Catt – Parys Mountain (9/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ WON 12/1>7/1 

5.00 Bev – Seven For A Pound (9/1<) H1 4/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tip

4.00 Bev – Billy Roberts (2nd run) 20/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

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Results Update: READ HERE>>>

Inc: –

  • Trainer Profiles Flat 2020: +37 points
  • The ‘H’ ‘strategy’: +43 points
  • My Tips: +66 points
  • Also discussion on losing runs/banks/and a handy table…

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Micro Monday Post: JUMPS! –  Emma Lavelle…. READ HERE>>> 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • yesterdays c3+ list had 1 winner
    my pick just wasnt good enough.
    just one c3+ race today
    Beverley 14:00 brazen belle
    my picks
    FOUR CLUBS E/W lingfield 17:45. noticed this while flicking through the racing as there was only one race for me to look at today.
    finished last on his debut at 6f on the soft. breeding would suggest he will need further and the 1m today may suit better. in a race where there isnt much form to go by i dont think the market can necessarily be a good guide. a big priced winner in this type of race wont raise any eyebrows. both hannon/dobbs are in great form at the moment. 40/1 is a big price and it may well run to that. most do. but the trainer is in such good form its hard to ignor.
    quoting the great man (josh) i’m gonna have to pay to find out. 🙂

    as always good luck today.

    warren bottomley 04/08/20 1:18 AM Reply


  • 2.30B Hello girl 8/1 She has CD form.

    N Tinkler.
    Beverley hcps 7/1 and under the last three years
    15 wins 24 pl from 34 attempts
    44%win 70%pl.
    Todays 5F 6 from 12.
    Todays Class 6 7 from 13.
    She does have a very bad draw 15 of 15.

    compound dave 04/08/20 9:58 AM Reply


    • Thought she ran better than finishing possy suggested there, bang up there near side with 1f to go, having stayed wide/covered so much more ground. Back there from a lower draw, and may get dropped another 1lb or 2.

      Josh 04/08/20 3:14 PM Reply


      • No suitable races for her in the near future at Bev
        but he does just as well at Ripon, Thirsk, and particularly Carlisle.

        Good winner for you today. Decent boost to profits.

        compound dave 04/08/20 6:48 PM Reply


  • A non runner and a loser on Monday.

    Nothing I like on Tuesday.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 04/08/20 10:26 AM Reply


  • Go tell it on the Mountain!!

    Chris 04/08/20 4:55 PM Reply


  • Brilliant Josh. Thank you.

    Steveindisguise 04/08/20 4:58 PM Reply


  • Boom…….:)

    warren Bottomley 04/08/20 5:03 PM Reply


    • Thanks fellas, a welcome boost in a ‘bread and butter’ race after last week’s efforts! I don’t like those draw-downs loitering around -20 odd for long! Onwards. Cheers. Josh

      Josh 04/08/20 5:06 PM Reply


      • Excellent pick Josh. I admire the energy you need to make sense of such a trapped handicap. Four runner stakes races stretch my attention span these days!

        Tony Linnett 04/08/20 10:49 PM Reply


  • Nice tipping Josh!!!!

    Cheers,

    Nige C 04/08/20 5:08 PM Reply


  • wd josh .. quality ! 🙂

    GEORGE B 04/08/20 5:10 PM Reply


  • Excellent reasoning and selection Josh, many thanks.

    Mark Curtis 04/08/20 5:21 PM Reply


    • yes it was rather haha, cheers! Ticked most of the boxes for that type of horse/4yo+ handicap it seems. Thankfully he read the script and it was a very good ride from Jimmy.

      Josh 04/08/20 5:47 PM Reply


  • nice one Josh and as a bonus i got 14’s 🙂

    martin whittle 04/08/20 5:29 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Martin. There was a 10p R4 but declared to 12s – which appeared at WH and Sky for a time, along with Bet365/BV after I posted. Hopefully most got one of the two. 11s very worst case.

      Josh 04/08/20 5:37 PM Reply


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