Flat 2020: End July

Hello there.

We are just over two months into this year’s Flat season and it’s time for another results round up of the daily content.

If spreadsheets are your thing you can find them below…

Download HERE>>>    OR…

Open Online HERE>>>  (hopefully that works)

Inside you can flick through the different tabs at the bottom, the ‘month to month’ sheet giving a top level view of all the various angles and how they’re performing.

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A good start…

That would be the short summary. My new, more focused, unique stats research appears to be doing the trick so far. When the season started I hoped that the content/my approach would highlight winners as a foundation to my own winner finding/tipping and indeed your own. That was aim #1. The second aim was the hope that some aspects may work ‘systematically’ and a simple strategy or two may emerge.

There’s some obvious highlights from the results to date…

Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat 

Those that qualify on generally available morning odds against my price caps (basically any horse that does not have a ‘DNQ’ next to their name once added around 8am or so) have been doing better than I could have hoped for I think.

After x2 months as at end of July, they’re now…

164 qualifiers / 35 wins / 49 places (inc wins) / 21% wsr / 30% w|p sr / +37.34 points (8am generally available price|not bog) / +30.73 Betfair Starting Price

I can’t complain at those figures.

IF they can continue a 21% win SR, that profit figure will keep ticking along. Such a win SR does mean there will be losing runs of at least -30 at some point. But, so far, so good.

If you want a systematic portfolio to follow, they’re obviously an option, averaging 2.7 bets per day so far.

As per the results spreadsheet I do track the ‘TP DNQ’ as per the tabs at the bottom – those horses that do not qualify on morning odds against my historically researched ‘odds caps’. They’re +21 points up but have been on a losing run of 23.

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Other Micro Angles

They’re doing ‘ok’, certainly in highlighting winners that with the addition of subjective analysis you or I may land on.

As a portfolio of angles they’re around +28 points in profit to morning odds, but i’m conscious that does include a 25/1 winner. But, still profitable and you can see the breakdown in the spreadsheets above, to help you make any informed decision on what you may wish to focus on, if anything. They’ve found 23 winners as of end of July.

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Horse Race Base Ratings

H1 / H2 / H3 /H4 

As per the ‘blog content explained’ document, which you can find in each daily post, the top 4 Horse Race Base (HRB) rated win around 62% of all Flat handicaps.

Those of you who’ve been reading for a while will now be familiar with the red symbols I add next to horses listed in the daily content, denoting whether they’re in the Top 4 HRB ratings.

Initially I added these to help give us all some further context/info, to help in the battle against the old enemy. Remember, most of my stats angles (certainly Sections 2/3) are not based on the horse or the horse’s ability, and certainly not in the context of today’s opposition. That’s where HRB ratings help.

Looking at Sections 2 + 3 of the daily content (‘the stats’ sections)… EVERY horse listed that has a H next to them, any odds…

H1 : 30 bets / 7 wins / 14 places (inc wins) / -4.93 (8am non bog) / -2.75 BFSP

H2/3/4: 96 bets / 27 wins / 47 places (inc wins) / +44.47 (8am non bog) / +45.83 BFSP 

So, as a ‘strategy’ of sorts, that is now looking solid. With the ‘top rated’ (H1) it could be that they’re over bet generally but had a couple of the 7 placed horses won, they’d be in profit. Again, given the odds at play if those win strike rates can be maintained, that profit pile will only head in one direction. While we will always be dealing with small samples I have great faith in the HRB ratings and when combined with my unique stats research, they are potent. So far.

Again, much like with the ‘Trainer Profiles’ qualifiers, if you wanted a systematic approach to take to the content, any Section 2 or 3 horse with a ‘H‘ next to their name is worth considering.

As always, i’d advise starting small and building up in time, and with an adequate bank to sustain inevitable losing runs. I’d like to think 50-70 points would be sufficient for ‘H’ horses (just Section 2 and 3), and maybe 100 or so if backing all ‘Trainer Profiles’ that qualify against the odds.

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‘Horses To Follow’ 

They’re not doing that great as a portfolio as yet and I certainly would advise against backing them systematically. However they have found 15 winners this season and i’ve tipped a handful of them, so they are serving a purposes. I do track said horses for x3 runs/stop at a winner, so it was always likely to be a bumpy ride.

In saying that my ‘losing tips’ are 5/36, 10p, +17.24 to BFSP – which I will take comfort from as it suggests the original analysis was ok. If i’m generally focusing on lightly raced (‘more to come’) horses, many of whom have a ‘hot form’ element, then some of them should be winning soon enough.

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Flat Tips 2020

Not too much to say here other than they’re going well. +71.77 points or so as of end of July. I’ve given a further 5 back since then, so around +66 as of 3rd August. Or +£330 to £5 per point.

Obviously i’m writing this after a dreadful Glorious Goodwood week. I was due a few losers but i’ve high standards and far too many didn’t run their race, and when that happens, combined with not being close enough to the winners, it suggests the analysis was wrong/shoddy/not good enough. No excuses there. Must do better.

Losers… I’ll always back plenty. I am currently on a -19 point ‘drawdown’ from the highest point we have reached, around +85 points. Earlier in the season, post our 33/1 Royal Ascot winner, I hit a -23 point ‘draw down’ from the highest point at that time. There will be many of those and some a fair bit worse. What was at times a 80%+ Return On Investment obviously isn’t sustainable. But i’ll keep trying,

IF my unique content continues to highlight winners, I should do ok in time. As you know, I try to just stick to my content as a ‘way in’, bar the odd big C2 handicap.

I’m happy with how things are going and will try to have a +100 point flat season which would be solid, before we move back into jumping mode in October time.

Betting Banks... if you do follow my tips I would suggest a 200 point bank. If that means starting with £2 bets (prepared to lose £400) then so be it. That is the only way you and I will ever get through losing runs, of which i’ll have many. And some will be a lot worse than -25 or so. A 12-15% win strike rate will mean losing runs/drawdowns of 40-70 odd. Over a long period of time such runs like that are simply inevitable. They cannot be avoided, however hard I try, especially when playing in competitive handicaps and in the 6s-8s+ price range. Long term profit is the aim and we haven’t been too shoddy on that front in recent years, with some bumps in the road.

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I think that’s all for this update. As always if you’ve any questions, fire away.

Josh

p.s here’s a handy table noting ‘expected’ losing runs linked to win % strike rate…