Trends Thursday: York Pointers

 

There’s some pointers below for two Saturday Handicaps from York. I did look at Sunday also but the three handicaps of note are new races, from what I could see. On Friday i’ll look again to see if there are any other handicap stats worth highlighting, including ‘trainer race records’ which are always useful.  As always for any ‘trends’ races below, in Saturday’s post (posted Friday afternoon) i’ll highlight my own shortlist against the stats, as well as highlight any runners for trainers who’ve previously won the race. For now…

 

Saturday Big Race Pointers

 

2.30 York- John Smith’s Cup

12/221, 48p

 

12/12 had 2-4 runs in previous 90 days (did not, 0/67, 5p) (some caution this season with stats such as this)

10/11 to have a career win had won at no further than 1m3.5f in career (1/52, 15p had won over further)

11/12 had run no further than 1m 5.5f in career (1/44, 7p had done so)

10/12 were moving up in distance from last start (2/64, 19p were dropping, places is solid though)

10/12 had 0-2 runs over the distance (3+ : 2/52, 12p)

10/12 ran over 10f or shorter LTO (10.5f+ : 2/76, 20p)

9/12 had official rating 99+ (98< : 3/111,22p, no win since 2013, 0/22,3p last two years)

8/12 had 5< handicap runs (8/74, 21p, +61 BFSP)

Other

  • 8/12 had never raced at York (8/83, 25p, +52 BFSP)
  • 0-1 run this season: 0/37, 4p (caution given this season’s circs)
  • 8/11 had been ridden by today’s jockey 0-1 times previously

 

Trainer (12 years)

  • W Haggas (2/12,3p)
  • X1: Sir Michael Stoute / T D Barron/ B Milman / M Bell/ R Varian/ J Goldie/ A Balding/ I Mohammed/ P Chapple-Hyam / R Fahey
  • B Ellison: 0/11,0p
  • M Johnston: 0/13,1p
  • Saeed Bin Suroor: 0/13,1p
  • D O’Meara: 0/13,1p

 

 

3.40 York -1m4f C3 Handicap

This race used to be a C2, run as a C3 for the first time last year. The field size has varied considerably also. So, even more caution with what follows, although they’re only so useful anyway…

12/115, 32p

 

10/12 rode in a 3YO only or 3YO+ race LTO

    • 4YO+: 2/51, 11p

9/12 were GB born (9/48, 18p)

    • IRE: 3/57, 13p

6/12 youngest horse in race (6/26, 9p)

 

Trainers (12 years)

  • Saeed Bin Suroor: 2/4,2p
  • T Easterby: 2/8, 2p
  • X1: R Beckett/ Sir M Stoute/ I Williams/ D O’Meara/ J Dunlop/ M Johnston/ R Fahey
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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • Some suggestions for races like the John Smiths Cup

    How many ran at Royal ascot in the same year?
    How many ran in various key races the previous year? (eg for this case Cambridheshire, Britannia, etc)
    What other key trials have been important in the history of the race? (Spring Lodge, formerly Suffolk, was one)

    Richard 16/07/20 11:05 AM Reply


    • record of fillies and mares
      record of apprentice jockeys

      probably can think of more

      Richard 16/07/20 11:08 AM Reply


      • Fillies/Mares, Apprentice Jockeys numbers were not significant to my eyes, hence why not posted 🙂
        You should get a HRB account! 🙂
        Josh

        Josh 16/07/20 11:12 AM Reply


    • Ah, yes, i didn’t look at pathways, which HRB had added in recent weeks I think (unless I’ve just always missed them!) whether any use this year, who knows but… of note/multiple winning LTO races …

      4/22 ran in the Wolferton a RA
      3/22 ran in the Sandown Coral challenge 1m Handicap

      ‘Festival’s as per HRB / 12 years…
      4/12 didn’t run at a ‘festival’

      5/12 (5/79) ran at Royal Ascot
      2/12 (2/9,3p) ran at Sandown Coral Eclipse meeting
      1/12 (1/4,3p) ran at Epsom Derby meeting

      Josh

      Josh 16/07/20 11:11 AM Reply


  • The John Smiths Cup comes down to a horse that is potentially group class running in a handicap. So which ones are they to narrow the field down and then do they fit the trends?
    Or else an outsider goes in at a bug price from an unfashionable stable?
    So two groups, get sorting!!

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 16/07/20 2:13 PM Reply


  • I did have a HRB account but again I used it for so few races each month it wasn’t worth it

    Plus it’s very clunky and non-intuitive. I just couldn’t work out how to use

    I’m twice your age Josh so it’s not something I can j8ust pick up. I found the tutorials woefully inadequate

    Richard 17/07/20 11:31 AM Reply


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