Daily Members Post: 16/07/20 (complete)

No tips, Quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

The FlatΒ 

(7/49,18p, +46.5, +56.34 BFSP)

None on Thursday, a day off ‘tipping’ wise.

It was all a bit mediocre after Mr Kiki got the job done, as his novice form/profile suggested he should be doing once his new trainer found the key. The headgear worked, as did bringing him back to Yarmouth. Rossa Ryan is some star in the making also. He showed impressive battling qualities there and could well follow up. Scott’s horse didn’t look happy and I wonder if something will come to light, or he didn’t handle the track. The other two I got wrong, pace wise – I thought they may get an easier time of it than they did. But they were big fields and both races had one other pace pusher in – and jockeys in both races decided to ruin each other’s chance. I suspect Amy’s will pop up back at Southwell at some point. I’m hopeful Too Shy Shy has more wins in her, maybe into a fillies’ only handicap, reunited with Hollie – she showed electric gate speed again, but visually did too much. But she still clung on for 4th, confirming form with Balding’s who was just behind again. She was weak in the market and we shall see where they send her next, back to Lingfield maybe. In a race with no pace, she will be making all again at some point, at her level. Hopefully just 1 point loaned, for the time being.Β Β 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

7.00 Sand – Dusty Dream (7/1< guide) 9/1 UP

7.00 Sand – Ivadream (any odds) 9/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

4.15 Leop – Stitch Pickings 12/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

None.

 

5.Other/Updates

Of some interest maybe…

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. Video replay shortlist.
    Hamilton
    2:00
    Meraas
    George Bowen
    Call me ginger
    3:00
    Tritonic
    Subjectivist

    Sandown
    4:55
    Konchek
    Manic j
    5:25
    Furlong factor
    Eye of heaven

    My pick
    call me ginger

    1. What does your video replay shortlisting consist of Warren? Are you looking for anything in particular/why does something catch your eye etc? I’d be intrigued to know. One way to improve in this game is to just watch more racing/replays. And trust your own eyes. For me that will remain some sort of edge, given how subjective it can be.
      I think, for example, Kevin Blake does a lot of work on the start/first furlong… The break from the stalls/energy used early to get a possy etc. Others will look at the other end etc etc. Another fascinating part of the game. Some won’t bother at all and do very well.

      1. Hi Josh
        Not easy to explain. My main focus is on the horses last run. I use the racing post mainly as all the videos are under one roof. I turn the odds off and all comments. It’s easy to swayed by comments and price.
        I watch every horses last run whether they finished 20 lengths the winner or are still running when the next race starts. Once I’ve watched them I take a few minutes and try to pick out runs that stood out for me in my head. Once I have I have them I will look further back in the form. I will also go back and look at horses that have had lower down finishes especially in bigger money races. For example a horses finishing with a run midway or lower in a group or listed race suddenly finds itself back in a c3 that midway to rear in a group race might be just enough. Also horses that have had hampered runs. That’s just a couple of examples. It’s like each race is a mini story and as you watch each horse it can branch off into lots of different directions. What I do know if I had the prices turned on and comments then I would of never touched and most people wouldn’t of captain claret 2nd 80/1 in the 2:05 at bath yesterday. There is no exact science behind it. It’s mostly gut instinct. All I hope is that the community finds some use of it. If it pops up a few winners and it does then all good.
        As you probably know looking at all those replays is time consuming , about 3 to 4 hours a meeting so I’m trying to concentrate on the better races.
        Hope that gives a little insight.

        1. Where I fall down is once I’ve got my 2 or 3 horses which one do I pick. That’s where I’m not so good that’s why I just put them up as thoughts and shortlists. There are much better people on here than me. My talent stops at the 2 and 3 unfortunately lol

          1. All sounds logical to me. Yep i’ll look at every horse’s last run in a race i’m attacking if I can, especially top 3/4 in market, and 3/4 runs of any selection etc. That’s easier in some races than others of course.

            Hmm, well from your three… bar any big big fields/straight tracks, you could automatically put a line through any hold up horse. Just focusing on those who race ‘up in the van’.
            I’ve been much more focused on pace and trying to be stricter – 4 of my 5 winners since Friday I thought would either lead or be just off the pace – 3 of those did just that, AA had better ideas for Glenties, and it worked- I wouldn’t have backed him at 11/2 if you’d had said those were the tactics pre race, but that’s the game. Jawwaal was a hold up, which I concluded is what I wanted in that Ascot sprint handicap, then you factor in price etc.
            So, pace is one…
            Jockey is the other- and again in last couple of weeks i’ve been much more focused on jockey bookings/the stats / what it may indicate etc. I suppose given jockeys can only ride at one meeting per day at the moment may give more weight to such things also.
            But you could ponder if you think significant, if they’re in form, what their track record is and obv with the trainer, and even with the horse.

            Anyway, just a couple of ideas to ponder,
            Josh

          2. Yes I totally agree Josh. Many times I’ve been left with 4 or 5 horses and jockey mount and current form of stables have played a big part in whittling them down. as for pace I do look at horses that come with a rattle whether up or down the field and if positioned better given how the race was won would of affected the result or at least been closer. I’ll keep posting what I see and hopefully nab a couple winners here and there.

          3. Why concentrate on the better races apart form lack of time? I think that you are more likely to make money at the lower levels where a horse can be forgotten in the market to n extent. So not exposed as much as those at the upper echelons.
            I look at a horse’s last three runs and note the going and the distance of the race. At the lower levels horses do run at different distance and ground conditions and so sometimes you can pick up what suits them best and then match them to when they next run in that scenario.
            If your time is limited I would concentrate on 3 to 4 horses in a session and get quality data or not on them. Some days you will pick up on things.

          4. That a very good point Martin and it does seem some of the tastier priced horses have come in in the lower classes so far. It’s something I’m keeping a close eye on.

  2. First off well done Josh on your reincarnation,a break,a change of scenery and a case of less is more has given you a new lease of life.Have to admit Pixy K was the first selection i picked up on last night,was the jockey booking that clinched 16 and a bit with r4 last night,well done again.

    See Forever for FOB is unlikely in the 1.15 Uttoxeter after 2 day break,but trainer is adept at these quick turnarounds 18/1 betvictor

    Thursday stat selection 0/4

    2pm Hamilton Music Society 16/1 BV 12/1 Gen
    T Easterby 4yo+ 16/69 +15
    T Easterby/Evans 4yo+ 5/18 +22

    What caught my eye was the jockey booking of Evans who mostly rides for Mick and used sparingly by Tim,a few concerns regarding jockey recent form,and the relatively low profit figure,either they were well fancied or well backed.Trip going and course should be fine

    1. Thanks Gerry, appreciated – yes I think you’ve hit the nail on the head with that analysis – i’ll try and keep my blogging head in the same place for as long as possible – although obv a correction will be due again soon enough. Still, a pleasant hot run, 5/14, +38 or so since Friday, + Super, has made it quite the 6 days.
      I am focusing more on jockeys/bookings/stats etc than I have done in the past. That and pace/running styles/pace set up. I know i’ve over-complicated in the past, while realising it is a complex sport. Mr Kiki was the perfect profile/selection really, given the boxes ticked, the trainer behaviour boxes (jockey booking/returning horse to home of his CD win), headgear indicated meant business etc.

      And oddly, having been anti 3YO handicaps in the early weeks of the season, now it’s settling down a bit, I seem to be enjoying them! 3 of those winners in that sphere. I’m trying not to have any set rules, with all blog content as the starting point. I’ll try and keep it going for as long as possible!

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      GL today – Music Society – is now done for, apols, I have had my beer money stake on the nose at 11s – given the no. of runners this year i didn’t bother doing any trends analysis etc. Evans did win on him last August, and I wouldn’t worry about his form – that’s tied to the form of Big Mick, who isn’t firing as yet – could well be running them into fitness or there are some issues. I think his son is doing more and more now, in effect a joint licence, whether he’s over-ruling the boss, who knows! πŸ™‚
      The horse is on a career high mark but hard to say he’s stopped improving just yet – you do wonder if being aimed at Ayr again, but that Haydock return was promising enough.
      Anyway, I can see why you’re intrigued by him in what looks an open race. He should be racing prominently if there to run his race.
      I could see Air Raid making a bold bid also, I assume this has been the plan given last year’s win in the race.
      GL
      Josh

  3. What a lovely video of the winning jockey going through the race, giving his take of the race.
    Having watched the race again more impressed, and Serpentine can only improve more after that, and can prove in time what a good Derby winner he is.
    With all the doubters critizing the other jockeys, fantastic may get a decent price in the Arc, if it runs of course.
    Colin.

    1. Glad you enjoyed it Colin – I do find those sorts of videos fascinating.

      It will be interesting to see what they do with Serpentine next, where they target and how they ride him etc. I believe on time analysis etc, if LOVE was in the Derby, she’d have won it! She could be some filly, and sadly I fear may stop Enable winning the x3 at Longchamp – but that’s a long way away and much can happen before then. But yes, maybe they’ll run him in the Arc and they won’t see which way he goes!

      Josh

  4. Just a place and two losers on Wednesday.

    Just the one today – 7.30 Sandown, Grey Fox.

    I note that Andy Holding has selected it on Oddschecker and so it iwll likely be bet.

  5. The rest of the Hamilton card today
    Not tips just few horses in each race I shortlisted

    12:30 salsoul / go go Luna
    13:00 lady Celia / somewhere secret / garnock valley
    13:30 gullane one / kindly
    14:30 imperial focus / Havana go / striding edge
    15:30 amber storm / old harbour / my macho man
    16:00 Ayr poet / tarnhelm / retirement beckons

    My pick 2:30 Havana go

    Good luck everyone

      1. cheers George B nice to get one every now and again when you nail your flag to the mast.

        1. ha ha .. it feels like more than every now n again with u wb .. keep up the good work & ideologeegee πŸ˜‰

        2. Well done Warren, don’t need many flags nailed to the correct mast at those odds to make it pay! Paul M riding like a man possessed in recent days!

  6. Nice winner yesterday with Mr kiki Josh…if you are eating a certain breakfast cereal, now is the time to push for a sponsorship deal!!! Great stuff.
    Fascinating posts above about watching races back, full of informative advice, appreciate the posts and something to look out for when watching races back, something I rarely do myself but after reading what to look for thanks to the above may well watch a few more…..

    Ascot list horses running today:
    15.25. Sand. Eye of Heaven/Furlong Factor/Wings of a Dove.

    A no betting race for me, hence no selection as the price of what I think will win,Eye Of Heaven, is justifiably too short a price. Eye Of Heaven clocked 39.34 mph at Nmkt then only 37.239 mph at Ascot due to the unfavourable going….the horse needs good or gd to firm ground which he has today. The only other other horse to clock above 39.00 mph is Deliver the Dream which ran at Windsor and clocked 39.18 mph on my adjusted figures. Consequently, if Eye of Heaven is on his A game will take all the beating and at evens is good value against the rest of the field but cannot back at that price…..Deliver The Dream’s run at Windsor is put down to having the rail to run against at Windsor according to the RP comments but you still have to have the ability to clock the speed, which he did, so hope the horse performs well and follows Eye of Heaven home for second at odds of 14/1. All the best if playing

    1. Ha, thanks John! I think Gerry summed it best for the recent resurgence, and ultimately most things boil down to how you manage your mind I think! And in this great game of ours, and with how I like to do things here (ie plenty of ‘help yourself’ type content, which takes time etc) it can be mentally exhausting if you’re not careful, to the point when everything becomes mediocre. Less is definitely more in this game when it comes to analysis/races, as to do a race/horse justice takes concentration/time. For now I think i’ve settled on a good routine/approach/management of time/my week, and we shall see if it continues to bear fruit! Time will tell, and this sport can bring you back down with a bump soon enough

  7. The rest of the sandown card this evening
    Not tips just few horses in each race I shortlisted

    16:20 may remain / indian raj / broadhaven dream
    18:00 jazzi’o / greycious girl
    18:30 knight salute / forever forward {unraced}
    19:00 rains of castamer / speadsheet / kentucky hardboot
    19:30 rajguru / life matters / by my side
    20;00 high wells / peckinpah / master milliner

    my pick 19:30 by my side

    good luck everyone.

  8. I hope you won’t mind this Josh but today over on his Elite service, Colin notched up 5 winners from 6 tips. Unbelievable. Great tipping. Cheers Colin

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