Members Daily Post: 14/04/18 (complete)

Section 1, Aintree TIPS etc

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Newcastle

2.05 –

Nortonthorpelegend (hncp c) H1 I3 9/4 UP

The Orange Rogue (m1+m2) H3 8/1 UP

3.20 – Pain Au Chocolat (hncp c) H3 I1 G3 4/1 S4 WON 4/1 

5.00 –

Black Kettle (hncp c) I3 9/2  WON 11/2 

Titian Boy (m1) H3 13/2 UP

 

Aintree

1.45 –

Debeche – m1) w2 8/1 4th

Fixe Le Kap (m1) 14 16/1  S2A UP

3.40 –

Viconte Du Noyer (hncp c + m1) 20/1 S2A  UP

Bells of Ailsworth (m1) w2 G1 11/1 S1 S2 UP

5.15 – The Dutchman (hncp c + m1) w2 I3 22/1 S2A S5 UP

6.20 – All Set To Go (all hncps) w2 40/1 UP

 

Chepstow

2.50 – Modeligo (all hncps + hncp c _ m1) ES H3 I3 G1 4/1 S3 S4  WON 4/1>5/2 

5.25 –

Renard (hncp c + m1) 14,30 H3 6/1 UP

Waldorf Salad (hncp c + m1) 14,30 10/1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/49,18p, +0.5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES – None

 

‘Festival TIPS’ 

(from the ‘members’ only’ ‘Festival Ledger’ now +114 in 2018 after yesterday’s 25/1 winner – hopefully you got bigger,but i’ll record it at that) 

1.45 –

Ah Littleluck – 1 point win – 14/1 (x4 bookies) 12/1 (gen)

Now McGinty – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen)

Prime Venture – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen)

(honourable mentions for Sir Mangan – given place on shortlist below , name your price, Fixe Le Kap – tipped LTO- and Debeche – plenty of class but 8s short enough for me in a race like this given his time off. Lovely horse though) 

I won’t have time for write ups but there is method to my madness, as always!

 

6.20 

Sternrubin – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365) 9/1 (gen)

All Set To Go – 1 point win – 40/1 (gen)

Hmm… my four 9/9 stats point to two horses… so, I’ve tipped them both! Easy as that really. I have looked at them and given place on the stats shortlist and their prices, I can’t find a reason not to have a go.

The Tizzard horse is intriguing, mainly because of the trainer in a handicap here, massive move down in trip, prob some change track-side ‘just in case’. 

 

That will be it for ‘festival tips’, any other handicap chase tips will be in the free post…

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide)

Aintree

1.45 – Ah Littleluck 3rd

3.40 – Bearly Legal UP/DNQ 50/1 / Paper Lantern 3rd

5.15 – Bless The Wings 3rd 40/1 / Thunder And Roses UP/DNQ

D McCain (14/1< )

2.05 Newc – Whiskey Chaser UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1< )

2.25 Aint – Aye Aye Charlie DNQ

5.15 Aint – Chase The Spud DNQ

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Aintree Day 3 

work in progress…

1.45

The 10/10 and 9/9 stats as per the guide leave:

Connetable / Ah Littleluck / Golan Fortune / Fortunate George / Sir Mangan 

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We take +35 points into the day from all ‘tipping’ content from both on here and the free post (handicap chases). I have tipped 12 points worth today across here and the two handicap chases on the free post. So, whatever happens, it’s been a good week. Ultragold improved the stats for ‘S2A’ strategy also, which was a positive.

I have no thoughts on any other races and haven’t even looked as yet. A couple of nice winners on the ‘through the card’ notes yesterday and a decent placed horse or two also. I’ll leave all the other races to you today and look forward to flicking through the comments.

Best of luck with whatever you back today.

Tips from free post…

3.40 – Bells of Ailsworth / Viconte Du Noyer (Thomas P prob worth a saver, could make all)

5.15 – Milansbar / Final Nudge/ Houblon Des Obeaux / Maggio

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

    1. haha, i’ve had the door frames enlarged! 🙂 It will go down hill at some point in ‘Festival’ handicaps, but we’ll enjoy it while it lasts!

  1. Chop chop Josh. Some of us have already spent 40 minutes on the treadmill this morning 😉

    From yesterday:

    I’ll start things off tomorrow. I’ve been in terrible form so it was nice to get a place today . Couple from me tomorrow on top of the two National runners I have already mentioned.

    Viconte Du Noyer Aintree Saturday 15:40 1pt e/w
    Final Nudge Aintree Saturday 17:15 0.75pt e/w
    Seeyouatmidnight Aintree Saturday 17:15 1pt e/w
    Ardmayle Chepstow Saturday 16:40 1pt e/w

    I would do write ups but trying to get all these lovely flat horses from Mark Howard’s book into the tracker before Tuesday and work has been mental over the past few weeks.

    1. Backing the Josh selections you dont need to work!

      Tiger Roll won the virtual race. I was gutted to see Red Rum beaten in a photo by Lescargot in the champions virtual race. Very odd to watch. When a horse was pulling up it stopped dead and then vapourised.

      1. I guess we should have just followed the Virtual version that’s 2nd and a 1st from the two winners! Hope you guys followed my tip away from Aintree. Will struggle to find many easier 7/1 shots all year.

  2. Aintree day 3
    1-45. Tikkenbar 12-1 and Sykes 33-1
    2-25.Momella 11-1 and Aye Aye Charlie 66-1
    3-00. Shantou Rock 7-1
    3-40. Oldorangewood 11-1
    4-20. Old Guard 20-1 and Thomas Campbell 22-1
    6-20. Scheu Time 8-1
    5-15. stake and prices taken
    Final Nudge 50-1 1pt ew
    Milansbar 33-1 1pt ew
    Seeyouatmidnight 1pt ew
    I Just Know 33-1 0.75pt ew
    Captain Redbeard 80-1 0.5pt ew
    Maggio 100-1 0.5pt ew
    good luck all

  3. The big day has arrived.
    My £5 fun bets today (fingers crossed)

    1:45 LOUIS’ VAC POUCH
    2:25 KILDISART e/w
    3:00 DIEGO DU CHARMIL
    3:40 IBIS DU RHEU
    4:20 THE WORLDS END
    5:15 PENDRA e/w
    6:20 BROUGHTONS ADMIRAL e/w

    Good luck everyone.

  4. Made 20pts from the stats yesterday…
    (89) Tizzard – Aintree 13:45:00 Aintree Storm Home (IRE) ==10th==
    (82) Henderson – Aintree 13:45:00 Aintree Jenkins (IRE) ==14th==

    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 13:45:00 Aintree Zubayr (IRE) ==13th==

    (89) Tizzard – Aintree 14:20:00 Aintree Vision Des Flos (FR) ==2nd==
    (89) Tizzard – Aintree 14:20:00 Aintree Slate House (IRE) ==8th==
    (82) Henderson – Aintree 14:20:00 Aintree Style De Garde (FR) ==PU==
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 14:20:00 Aintree Style De Garde (FR) ==PU==

    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 14:50:00 Aintree Terrefort (FR) ==won at 4.44==
    (82) Henderson – Aintree 14:50:00 Aintree Terrefort (FR) ==won at 4.44==
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 14:50:00 Aintree Ms Parfois (IRE) ==2nd==
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 14:50:00 Aintree Elegant Escape (IRE) ==3rd==
    (89) Tizzard – Aintree 14:50:00 Aintree Elegant Escape (IRE)==3rd==
    (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 14:50:00 Aintree Black Corton (FR)==4th==
    (94) C1 winners @ Aintree 14:50:00 Aintree Black Corton (FR) ==4th==
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 14:50:00 Aintree Coo Star Sivola (FR) ==PU==

    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 14:50:00 Aintree Black Corton (FR) ==4th==

    (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 15:25:00 Aintree Politologue (FR) ===won at 15.5===
    (94) C1 winners @ Aintree 15:25:00 Aintree Politologue (FR)===won at 15.5===
    (93) Chelts to Aintree up in trip 15:25:00 Aintree Min (FR) ==2nd==
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 15:25:00 Aintree Min (FR) ==2nd==
    (89) Tizzard – Aintree 15:25:00 Aintree Sizing Granite (IRE)==3rd==
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 15:25:00 Aintree Balko Des Flos (FR)==4th==
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 15:25:00 Aintree Cloudy Dream (IRE) ==5th==
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 15:25:00 Aintree Le Prezien (FR)==PU==
    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 15:25:00 Aintree Politologue (FR)===won at 15.5===
    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 15:25:00 Aintree Min (FR) ==2nd==
    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 15:25:00 Aintree Le Prezien (FR) ==PU==

    (89) Tizzard – Aintree 16:05:00 Aintree Ultragold (FR) ==won at 18.73==
    (89) Tizzard – Aintree 16:05:00 Aintree Shanahans Turn (IRE) ==2nd==
    (80) Elliott – Aintree 16:05:00 Aintree Clarcam (FR) ==6th==
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 16:05:00 Aintree Top Gamble (IRE) ==8th==

    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 16:05:00 Aintree Polidam (FR) ==9th==
    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 16:05:00 Aintree Bouvreuil (FR)==PU==

    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 16:40:00 Aintree Santini ===won at 2.69==
    (82) Henderson – Aintree 16:40:00 Aintree Santini ===won at 2.69==
    (94) C1 winners @ Aintree 16:40:00 Aintree Tower Bridge (IRE) ==3rd==
    (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 16:40:00 Aintree Tower Bridge (IRE) ==3rd==
    (82) Henderson – Aintree 16:40:00 Aintree Chef Des Obeaux (FR) ==PU==
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 16:40:00 Aintree Ok Corral (IRE) ==5th==

    (82) Henderson – Aintree 17:15:00 Aintree Pym (IRE) ==9th==
    (82) Henderson – Aintree 17:15:00 Aintree Mister Fisher (IRE) ==13th==

    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 17:15:00 Aintree Danny Kirwan (IRE) ==17th==

    A lot of bets admittedly, but worth my while.

    Just pulling today’s together now.

  5. Sorry I`m late, suffering a little today after a cracking day out, now they say never bet with a hangover as your head isn’t straight, but, i picked these out before racing yesterday and everyone but the vicar knows who I am doing in the National..
    13:45 Aintree
    RED INDIAN 8/1 gen 2pt win
    looked like a step up in trip would suit last time when 6th at the festival over a shorter trip. showed good form before that over 2m3f-2m5f and this step up to 3 miles looks perfect. conditions suit. top trainer in Ben Pauling.
    GOLAN FORTUNE 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    Robert Patrick is one of the Apprentice finds of the season and his 5lb claim could prove crucial here. The horse only just failed to handle a 14lb rise in the handicap when only finding TopoftheGame too good at Sandown. That horse then only failed by a neck to win the Coral Cup off an 8lb higher mark. These levels of form are enough to put the horse very much in the mix here and the 16/1 looks a great price.

    15:40 Aintree
    PAPER LANTERN 12/1 gen 1pt ew
    Arrives here in decent form having won it’s latest run at Fairyhouse earlier this month when hacking up by an impressive five lengths and a half, trainer Karl Thornton has had a 14/1 winner from three runners in the last fortnight while it has the benefit of jockey Donagh Meyer taking off a useful 3lb.
    VERY FIRST TIME 20/1 1pt ew
    Is a novice and thus the possibility for significant improvement is there. Not that it is necessarily required as Tim Easterby’s charge has already run 7 lb above this mark twice. After a trio of relatively easy races around the turn of the year (touched off the last time); the Kim Muir proved a leap too far but hopefully that experience will have also been an education. Should love the ground and as the owner Trevor Hemmings doesn’t mind a winner here; there is every chance this was always the plan.

    17:15 Aintree
    GAS LINE BOY 25/1 gen 1pt ew
    Gas Line Boy was a fantastic fifth in the last edition of this race and was clearly campaigned with this race as main target: his seasonal debut was at this venue over 3m2f. He looked in control 7 lengths clear and was jumping really well till making a costly mistake 3 out when unseated his rider. Scored next time out over the National fences over inadequate short distance and had a decent prep at Sandown in January in the Veteran Final where stayed on nicely in third over 3 miles. Goes well fresh and likes cut in the ground, should be in the mix again with a clear round.Ultragold then went and boosted the form and I`m glad I`m on at 66`s because after the race yesterday it shouldn’t last…
    THE DUTCHMAN 22/1 gen 1 pt ew
    If you excuse his last run , (burst a blood vessel in bottomless ground at Haydock ), then he would look the form pick coming into this all being said, progressing nicely winning quite comfortably from a decent enough field and looking as though he could go round again at Haydock in the Peter Marsh. Mr Tizzard has enthused about this one and I thought it odd, he chose this one. instead of Ultragold for National, he must think him something special and the way Ultragold won yesterday, he is bang in form!! Mr Cobden likewise and I think after Native River won the Gold Cup, the National is also heading to the West Country!!
    MILANSBAR 33/1 gen 1 pt ew
    Milansbar won nicely in the classic chase, before running 2 good races since in the Eider and the Midlands National so he’s shown he can be competitive off this mark. The trip should be fine, his jockey is full of confidence and he’s fine on the ground. He’s gone a little under the radar, and I think 33’s is too big a price.
    UCELLO CONTI 18/1 gen 1 pt ew
    Ucello Conti has finished sixth in this two years ago and was unlucky to come down at Beechers last season. We need a horse with a nice weight here given the poor ground and there has always looked to be a big race in this horse, this could be it. His second to Anibale Fly I thought put him spot on, then he pulled up next time out with no explanation, think that was Mr Elliot being shrewd and trying to fool our Handicapper, it worked because he has hardly budged in weights and Anibale Fly went up considerably!!

    18:15 Aintree
    UNISON 25/1 1pt ew
    Quite good on the flat but is making into a better hurdler. Won 8 from 17 hurdle races including debut off as high as 140 on ground ranging from good to heavy. Raised 6lb off top weight but stays the trip well has ideal conditions and is still improving so has to go well.Price definitely does not represent ability…steam in!!
    HAVANA BEAT 16/1 gen 1 pt ew
    Fairly useful Flat winner who is still unexposed as a hurdler and got off the mark in comfortable fashion at Huntingdon recently. Capable of improvement switched to handicaps.Trainer has 4 from 8 winners in last fortnight, so yard is bang in form.

    There ya go, live by the sword again, I know between me, Josh and all the others that contribute on here, we have a lot of darts thrown at the board, but as I said to my daughter yesterday, it`s about opinions and whose you take, plus if you back 4 and one of them comes in and makes you a profit, so be it…. PROFIT is the key in beating the bookies, not how many darts you throw!!!

    1. Stewart
      A man after my own heart and thanks for a profitable Aintree,good old Tony Carroll he certainly knows how to get them ready when he ventures to Grade 1 courses whether it be NH or Flat,he does enjoy plotting one for Goodwood in the top Handicaps won the Stewards Cup possibly 4 years ago at 33/1 happy days.

  6. Another raft of stat-based qualifiers today…

    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 13:45:00 Aintree Connetable (FR)
    (82) Henderson – Aintree 13:45:00 Aintree Fixe Le Kap (FR)

    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 13:45:00 Aintree Connetable (FR)
    ———————————————————————————————————
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 14:25:00 Aintree Black Op (IRE)
    (89) Tizzard – Aintree 14:25:00 Aintree Lostintranslation (IRE)
    (82) Henderson – Aintree 14:25:00 Aintree On The Blind Side (IRE)
    ———————————————————————————————————
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 15:00:00 Aintree Petit Mouchoir (FR)
    (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 15:00:00 Aintree Petit Mouchoir (FR)

    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 15:00:00 Aintree Diego Du Charmil (FR)
    ———————————————————————————————————
    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 15:40:00 Aintree Ibis Du Rheu (FR)
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 15:40:00 Aintree Rocklander (IRE)
    (89) Tizzard – Aintree 15:40:00 Aintree Viconte Du Noyer (FR)
    ———————————————————————————————————
    (94) C1 winners @ Aintree 16:20:00 Aintree Identity Thief (IRE)
    (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 16:20:00 Aintree Identity Thief (IRE)
    (94) C1 winners @ Aintree 16:20:00 Aintree Sam Spinner
    (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 16:20:00 Aintree Sam Spinner
    (82) Henderson – Aintree 16:20:00 Aintree Thomas Campbell
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 16:20:00 Aintree Wholestone (IRE)

    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 16:20:00 Aintree Old Guard
    ———————————————————————————————————
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 17:15:00 Aintree Anibale Fly (FR)
    (94) C1 winners @ Aintree 17:15:00 Aintree Anibale Fly (FR)
    (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 17:15:00 Aintree Anibale Fly (FR)
    (94) C1 winners @ Aintree 17:15:00 Aintree Double Ross (IRE)
    (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 17:15:00 Aintree Double Ross (IRE)
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 17:15:00 Aintree Shantou Flyer (IRE)
    (89) Tizzard – Aintree 17:15:00 Aintree The Dutchman (IRE)
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 17:15:00 Aintree The Last Samuri (IRE)
    (72) Top 3 at Chelts LTO 17:15:00 Aintree Tiger Roll (IRE)
    (80) Elliott – Aintree 17:15:00 Aintree Tiger Roll (IRE)
    (94) C1 winners @ Aintree 17:15:00 Aintree Total Recall (IRE)
    (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 17:15:00 Aintree Total Recall (IRE)
    (97) Aintree/Chelto Class 1 17:15:00 Aintree Vieux Lion Rouge (FR)

    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 17:15:00 Aintree Childrens List (IRE)
    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 17:15:00 Aintree Pleasant Company (IRE)
    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 17:15:00 Aintree Total Recall (IRE)
    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 17:15:00 Aintree Warriors Tale
    ———————————————————————————————————
    (80) Elliott – Aintree 18:20:00 Aintree High Expectations (FR)
    (89) Tizzard – Aintree 18:20:00 Aintree Solatentif (FR)

    (88) Mullins/Nicholls – Aintree Lays 18:20:00 Aintree Amour de Nuit (IRE)

    I’ll post the National trends qualifiers shortly!

    Chris

  7. My arrows for Aintree today. GL everyone.
    13:45 Connetable ew / Jeannot De Nonant
    14:25 Silver Concorde ew
    15:00 Lady Buttons
    15:40 Pearl Swan ew / Viconte Du Noyer
    16:20 Wholestone / Identity Thief ew
    17:15 Maggio / Vieux Lion Rouge / See youatmidnight

  8. Morning squad, great night in Dublin last night largely paid for by Josh’s winners.

    Anyway, on to today, leopardstown lies ahead, so any Irish racing experts got anything of interest? Or some through the card selections.

    All the best with your plays today
    Cheers,
    Lee

    1. Morning Lee , ive not had any time to look at this …so Please dont shoot the messenger 🙂 … but ive been pointed in the direction of Canary Row 10/1 in the 3-15 …. a working mans-e/w price at least … .

      Good Luck

  9. A big Tom Lacey double for me today. The horses have been in amazing form and the rain came for Thomas Patrick.
    3.40 Aintree Thomas Patrick 9/2
    4.05 Chepstow Kimberlite Candy 3/1
    21/1 double.

    1. Yes, I backed Kimberlite myself last night at 4’s, looks an open if not great race and he’s got every chance.

  10. OK, based on the trends of the National winners since 2000, these are the horses that are supposedly most likely to have a chance today…

    Anibale Fly (FR)
    Chase The Spud
    Double Ross (IRE)
    I Just Know (IRE)
    Milansbar (IRE)
    Perfect Candidate (IRE)
    Road To Riches (IRE)
    The Dutchman (IRE)
    The Last Samuri (IRE)
    Total Recall (IRE)
    Warriors Tale

    You’re probably all bored of me and my stats etc by now, so that’s me done for the day.

    Chris

    1. I`m not bored, thanks for taking the time out to offer them, all helps in the grand scheme of things!! The more times i see The Dutchman / Milansbar on things, the more my judgement feels right, so, keep it up alongside Josh we are all trying to make this blog more exciting and anything that adds to it is in my eyes beneficial!? Hope I`m not speaking out of turn Josh? just my opinion?

  11. Plenty of points in the bag after yesterdays heroic efforts from Josh ..Thank you 🙂 …

    1.45 . GOLAN FORTUNE . ive been fortunate to have followed this one and it owes my nothing , took the 20/1 e/w on Sportsbook when they opened up Monday . The trainer thinks this is still unexposed & i think he sets the standard here and difficult (im my humble opinion ) to see him out of the places .
    Ive used plenty of my “points” up on this fella today … 🙂

    Good Luck All

  12. Tips – We had Ultragold at 16/1 yesterday and so we were 13 points up on the day and are 12.5 points up for the month. I am going for my third profit at Aintree following good days Thursday and Friday.
    2.25 Western Ryder 1.5 points each way at 8/1. Got into trouble at Cheltenham and then ran on late to be sixth.
    3.40 Bells of Ailsworth 1 points each way at 14/1. Seems suited by the course and has further improvement I think.
    5.15 A token selection, Seeyouatmidnight, 1 point each way at 16/1. Too hard a race to have any confidence in.
    6.20 William of Orange, 2 points win at 7/1. Looks to have been targeted at this race. I like Scheu Time for the forecast from a stable that has a good record at this meeting.

    Good luck.

    1. Hmm, it’s not 🙂
      Well, if my memory is right I had a look through all Cheltenham week tips… 1/2 a point EW on all tips was +73 points or so. 1 point win on all tips was +109 points or so, with my own staking it ended up on +92.
      Betting 1/2 point EW on my two winners at Aintree would have won you 16-20 points less than 1 point win, then of course adding back in stakes returned/placed profits on the odd horse that placed. But I don’t think that would get anywhere near those points back.
      Staking is always up to you but I can withstand the longer losing runs as I have faith in my ability, over time, to find enough big winners to make 1 point win much more palatable than 1/2 point EW, profit wise, and of course ROI.
      Josh

      1. There’s definitely a balance to be found, and like Josh says part of it is about how well you can handle losing runs. Since I started following S2A, I’ve switched to going each way more often. On Josh’s tips these days I’ll go 0.5ew and then throw on another 1/4 point or so on the exchange.

        I think also because I follow bets from a few places, I often end up with quite a few bets in the same race. In that kind of situation I prefer the chance of hitting a few places and not losing on the race, with the chance of a winner to make some profit.

        I think it also depends on the race and the place terms on offer. If I’m just getting standard places and 1/5 it maybe makes more sense to go win only, but maybe if I can get an extra place or 1/4 odds I’ll be more likely u go each way.

    2. Josh’s way thinking leads much more to win only bets. He has done research on the subject time again and is more profitable going win only. Personally my bets are each way but that’s because I aim to find horses which will be thereabouts but that’s just me.

  13. OK interesting, thank you. I dont necessarily see half a point each way as the only alternative to 1pt win. Sometimes I bet 2 win 1 place but on the whole if I believe there is value in the place I bet 1 point each way. I used to bet win only for a long time but got badly burned by a statistically improbable if not impossible string of losers that placed. My bank close to bust and confidence shot. Ever since I am more likely to bet each way, not least when I am following someone with exceptional ability. SP2A are an example – they seem to rarely have long runs of backing horses that are out with the washing.

    1. Yep I suppose there are three main points of focus for me… profit / ROI and removing as much subjective staking deliberation as possible. For whatever reason, the way I analyse these races leads to much more profit/bigger ROI win only. And 1 point win versus 1/2 EW is the fairest comparison, or 2 point win versus 1 point EW – not least because I know I won’t get it right often enough if say going 2 point win / 1 point place. I don’t like to think about staking too much and I have got it wrong a couple of times in last month, consistency is key for me, and 1 point win is the benchmark for my own approach. I rough estimate – since Day 1 of Festival there is around a 50 point or so difference between 1 point win and 1/2 EW,inc free chase tips. I’d rather have the £1k in my bank at £20 pp, knowing I am happy absorbing/dealing with 25-40 point losing runs, which happen every now and then. But I don’t think i’ve had a longer losing run than 30 or so since I started. But i try and provide enough of a window into my thinking/ a race etc so you can make your own mind up. ‘Staying in the game’ is vital and if that means EW and sometimes less of a return, then so be it.

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