Free Daily Post: 14/04/18 (complete)

TIPS

5.15 Aintree

Milansbar – 1 point EW – 28/1

Final Nudge – 1 point win – 40/1

Houblon Des Obeaux – 1 point win – 33/1

Maggio – 1 point win – 100/1 (bet365) 80/1 (gen)

*

I’m running out of time this morning so not much of a write up. I have an awful record in this race over the last 11 years or so since becoming a racing nut, so you have been warned! 🙂 I think it is the only ‘National’ (inc all the regional ones) that I have yet to tip the winner of on here so fingers crossed one of these four can end that hoodoo! I can’t say I’m expectant.

Milansbar – he is the only horse in the whole race to tick every box on my unique stats profile and given his price it was as simple as that. He has very solid staying chase form to his name nad Bryony gets on very well with him. This may be one race too many, he may not be good enough, but if he takes to the fences he should just keep going. If he doesn’t win then the odd major stat of mine is going to be busted, hopefully by one of those below…

Final Nudge – well I fixated on the Chepstow Welsh National run I suppose and the fact I tipped him LTO at Cheltenham, so I thought i’d stick with him. He ‘could be anything’ around here, including tailed off!

Houblon Des Obeaux – the blinkers appear to have sparked more life into him and given the form of the stable, I just couldn’t resist. This race has a very strange feel this year. He has experience of the fences and should just keep going. There’s a chance 4/5 may be 30L clear by then but at 33s I won’t over-think it too much. He should relish conditions and while not the force of old this race feels odd and like plenty may just fall in a hole with the winner being the last horse still going.

Maggio – hmmm… maybe I just wanted to tip a 100/1 shot! But, given young Brendan’s dad won over these fences I believe it would be quite the ‘story’. He is lightly raced for his age and bolted up here in the 3m1f handicap chase a couple of years back. This has no doubt been the plan and he may outrun these odds and plod on. Of the monster priced ones I thought why the hell not. Given I think this rails feels strange and as if anything could happen, I thought it best to throw a dart at a real biggie.

Of the rest… well, you can make a case for nearly all if not all runners in this! Picking a name may be no bad strategy in truth. Honourable mentions for Tiger Roll / I Just Know / The Dutchman / Raz De Maree.

I’ve mentioned 8 horses there and they could all finish unplaced!

GL with whatever you go with.

*

3.15 Aintree

Vicontey Du Noyer – 1 point win – 20/1

Bells Of Ailsworth – 1 point win – 10/1

No time for write ups.

I take +35 points into today from the first two days, across the free posts and member’s Festival tips. I’ve laid out 12 points today so guaranteed a decent profit whatever happens.

Best of luck,

Josh

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

7 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • AW BETS

    5.40 Lingfield Maraakib

    6.00 Wolverhampton Berkshire Royal

    Due a big price winner lets hope its today

    colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Best of luck with Maraakib, then 🙂

      chrisrees 2 weeks ago Reply


  • HOUBLON DES OBEAUX will do for me :0) Backed him last night.

    If you have a B365 a/c please please please take advantage of their money back offer.
    Place an ew single on the National ( 5 or 6 places ) and you get half your total stake returned to your pot immediately. So £5 ew = £10 stake, £5 will be returned immediately! You can then have £2.50 ew and £1.25 will be returned and on and on …… Must be placed before 11-55am Brilliant Offer :0)

    Kevin Gibbard 2 weeks ago Reply


    • What A Season Davy Russell has had ………….
      Methinks there is someone up there watching over him just now…………
      WELL DONE SIR !

      Kevin Gibbard 2 weeks ago Reply


      • It was a great race but I had the second so for obvious reasons I’d have preferred Davie to not be smiling afterwards – super rides by both jockeys

        Andrew Gilmore 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Aintree 3:15 is 3:40 and I’d already punted Bells Of Ainsworth 13.5 @ BF so good to see you agree Josh
    GL all today – lets hope that they all come home safe and sound

    finalflight 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Firstly to the National. It turns out that Chase The Spud is the grandson of a winning point to pointer called Model Lawyer that my Uncle Tom, born 1918 and long gone, bred. I have only just found this out so have had a sentimental £5 e/w. Uncle Tom’s stock phrase for which he was renowned even when his maiden pointers had reached the age of 10 was “could be anything”. In his spirit I shall be cheering on The Spud and if I get lucky it will be “Maaarvellous”.

    To the 2yos (which will have Uncle Tom spinning in his grave!)

    Wolverhampton 7.30 14/04/2018 Plus Ten fillies Novice.
    Ratings
    1. Sesame, KG Courage, Knockabout Queen, Pennies From Heaven, Frisky Dancer
    Ratings Bet 1pt win Pennies From Heaven (fun exacta and trifecta at the bottom)
    An unusual situation here with four from David Evans and two from Tom Dascombe reflecting the fact that 3 weeks into the flat season this is only the 8th 2yo race.
    Adding to the difficulty is that the jockey bookings from the multiply represented stables do not enlighten. Stable jock Richard Kingscote rides Sesame, is this because she is owned by Lawrence Bellman or because she is the best of the two? Either way she is drawn 11 which might make things difficult, then again according to Geegeez pace map front runners from high have the same IV (Impact Value) as those drawn low, although overall low is better. If one thing can almost be guaranteed it is that Richard Kingscote will get Sesame out of the stalls fast. Over in the Evans team I would have John Egan as the most favoured of the four yet he seems to be on the least favoured in the early market, KG Courage who looked green and slow on debut behind Pennies From Heaven.
    Pennies From Heaven is the early favourite and is drawn well with Franny Norton up for Dean Ivory. On debut she was ridden by Jack Duern claiming 3lbs. He did not get her out too well and she was very green and keen then did not get a clear run. The stick was used on both the first two Jungleinthebungle and Lady Prancealot but not on PfH, with Franny up and the experience she does look the most likely winner.
    Of those not covered in the ratings Deia Glory has to have a good chance, again no stick used on debut at Newcastle and with that experience should be involved in the finish. Scott Dixon can get the odd early winner but more often in auction races.
    The market looks to have it about right at present with PfH as favourite and Deia Glory and Sesame the next two. If either Knockabout Queen is supported late on she too may be ok.
    Just for fun now that the market is a bit more formed and the Dascombe horses have drifted I think that the only practical bet that suggests itself is a reverse exacta between the ones with experience Pennies From Heaven and Deia Glory and a combo trifecta the first three in the market at say 7.20pm excluding Daphinia.
    Hugh

    alpha2 2 weeks ago Reply


Post A Reply