Top Gamble – 1 point win – 14/1
Shanahan’s Turn – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365) 20/1 (gen)
Ultragold – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen)
Rogue Angel – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen)
I have used some stats pointers in this of which Top Gamble / Ultragold / Rogue Angle show up well enough against those.
Top Gamble – This horse has a touch of class and comes here in decent form after his run at Cheltenham LTO. He was hampered a few times but stayed on well after the last. Provided he takes to the fences I can see him running his usual consistent race, although he hasn’t won for a couple of years now. He won’t mind the softer conditions as there has been plenty of rain around overnight. Of those near the top of the market I thought he looked most interesting.
Shanahan’s Turn- in recent years all of Tizzard’s runners are worth a closer look at this meeting and this one could outrun his odds. The ground is a slight unknown but inconclusive and these older horses can appreciate softer ground when previously they looked like good ground horses. He is a previous Galway Plate winner and is well handicapped against old form. He has a touch of big field handicap class. He ran well for a long way at Cheltenham, his first run in some time. I assume this must have been the plan. Again, like many in here, it’s about how he takes to the fences.
Ultragold – he won this race last year at 50/1 and given we now know he enjoys these fences I thought 16s looked decent enough. He does just seem to come alive around here, as he showed in December. He won’t mind the softer ground and I can see him running a big race and becoming another multiple winner of this race. He was a bit underwhelming the last day but again this could have been the plan and he will be fully revved up here.
Rogue Angel – this old boy enjoys living up to his name and clearly he is more likely to be Pulled Up than winning but at 33s, given his place on my stats and his experience of the fences, I couldn’t resist. The Cheekpieces return here in place of blinkers so at least he is doing something different. The fences well may spark him up and this is his shortest break in between races for a while, that could make some difference, it may not. If this is a real slog and he is on a going day, he would out-stay this lot. I just hope he can bounce out and hold a position early as he does run over his shortest trip for some time here. But again, ‘doing something different’ can be a positive given his inconsistent profile. He went well in the National last year, only fading three from home or so. He appears to enjoy the fences. He may be tailed off early but I was happy to have a stab.
Dangers… well it’s likely I haven’t mentioned the winners but that’s the nature of this race. Two at monster prices that caught the eye were Midnight Shot 50s and Indian Temple (name your price)… Theatre Territory is a worthy fav given her consistency, her form, and her jockey – who excels around here. I thought 10s or so was short enough for a chaser that has yet to win over fences and was having her first run around here. But, she could go very well.
GL with any bets, that’s the lot for today,