Members Daily Post: 28/03/18 (complete)

RESULTS update, Section 1, test zone, monthly article

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wincanton

3.40 – 

Bramble Brook (hncp c + m1) w2 ES+ H3 13/2 S3A  UP

Little Jon (hncp c) G3 6/1  2nd 

Some Are Lucky (m1/m1) w1 H1 I3 G3 9/4  S4  UP

4.15 – 

The Cider Maker (hncp c +m1/m1/m2) ES+ 10/3 S3A  UP

Pink Gin (hncp chase) H3 I3  8/1  UP

Cucklinton (hncp c + m1) w1 H1 G3 3/1   WON 4/1 

 

Warwick 

4.55 –

Mahlervous (hncp h) I3 7/2    2nd 5/1 

Box Office (hncp h + m1) ES I3  20/1 S2 S3 S5  UP 33/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th March 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/45,17p, +5.5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

None. Mahlervous probably looks the most interesting, but the price can’t tempt me in- unexposed (second run in a handicap), down in class, up in trip – may do the trick, it may not, but I think I want bigger than 7/2 to find out, esp with 50 odd days off also. With any luck he runs his race. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan(14/1< guide)

3.15 Warw – Minella Scamp UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results Update

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key will be updated next week. 

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 19th March-25th March

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 1/21,13p, -13.5
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 1/16, -8.5
  • JUMPS – S1 (0/2,1p,-2) S2 (0/6,3p,-6)) S3 (1/7,4p, +0.5) S3A (0/4, 4p, -4) S4 (0/2,1p, -2) S5 (none)
  • FLAT 2018: S4 (1/1,1p, +4.5) S5 (1/1,1p, +4.5)

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  1/2,2p, +3.5

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 3/15,7p, +4

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

  • Jumps: 2/10,5p, +4 
  • Flat: 0/1,1p, -1 

Handicap Debut: 1/2,1p, +5.5

S3A Double/Treble rated: 0/1,1p, -1 

 

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The Week That Was: Weekly Article

For now there is my latest Monthly Article for The Betting Insiders Club that I spent a chunk of Tuesday working on. They allow me to publish these monthly articles for you also. This month’s has some reflections on the Festival (which were covered to a point in my review post) and a new micro looking at horses that ran at the Festival LTO. I will save this and post up ‘qualifiers’ but to be used with extreme caution, and mainly as starting points. There are also a few trainer pointers for the Aintree GN Meeting and my Flat TTP Profile for Doncaster, which you can take a look at. Only 30 more or so tracks to go! (Redcar/Musselburgh/Bath race in the next week or so…I’ll try and get those done asap) 

You can read this article HERE>>>

I will pull together some ‘notebook’ horses from the Festival and it’s just dawned on me that the Irish have a decent Festival this weekend, including the Irish Grand National! I’ll see what I can find for that. 

The Donny Lincoln meeting notes pointed to a couple of nice priced winners for Fahey, and with any luck some of you backed those and may have used the pointers to turn a profit. 

Looking ahead, there is some decent enough racing on Saturday but my coverage may be limited, time allowing. (outside of core members’ content) I have another wedding on Sat, but there are plans from late Friday afternoon and I’ll be out the house by 7.30am Saturday, so we shall see what I can get done! 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

42 Responses

  1. Fairly safe I probably haven’t two consecutive picks who have ran as badly as my two this week for awhile but I am due a crash in form sometime so this could be it.

    Now Mcginty Warwick Wednesday 16:55 2pt win-(Price taken 4/1, widely available at 4/1)-We backed Virginia Chick last week who was a relatively easy winner against a half decent field at Chepstow. That horse was absolutely put in his place by the selection with a further 23 lengths back to 3rd (as previously mentioned the horse in 3rd was 2nd to a horse which followed up twice in class 4s so was no mug). He is 10lbs up for that win which was over course and distance but the manor of his victory I think he still has plenty in hand. Trainer Stuart Edmunds has had 3 winners from his last 6 runners so is in hot form.
    Pink Gin Wincanton Wednesday 16:15 1pt e/w- (Price taken 9/1-17/2) I think we can pretty safely say Pink Gin absolutely hates Chepstow. If you take away his runs at that track he has yet to run a bad race in a chase when finishing (although his run LTO was his best run at the track to date and as Josh mentioned this year’s race was stronger than last year). His best chase run came at this track where he was 4 lengths behind a horse who followed up in a class 3 (and was the AP favourite for the Eidar before being pulled). The 4th also won a class 3 and the 3rd won a class 4. Twister is in good form with 2 wins and a place from his last 5 runners and won this race 12 months ago. (also shows up on Josh’s systems above for good measure) This race looks easier than his race at the track and i thought he looked a solid e/w bet. I am not the jockey’s greatest fan but he has placed on his last three starts and is clearly riding well.

    1. If you do not have a winner you might as well be out the back with the washing. It is not good for your mental health when you are beaten in a photo. What dont you like about Mark Grant as a jockey? Is it just he is not much good?

      The tipping game is very hard and anyone showing a profit should be very pleased.

      1. Sorry Martin but I totally disagree with both points. I am quite proud that most of my horses run their race and finish there or thereabouts which is why I largely bet e/w. Would rather be a neck second than out the back of the telly even if those are the most painful but if you keep getting neck 2nds you know its just a matter of time before they become 1sts. Also you should never be happy just making a profit. That leads to complacency. I always strive for better profits. The past 12 months I haven’t lost more than a point in a single month. I know a bad month is coming but I still will be disappointed when it does. With regards to the jockey he doesn’t have a great strike rate and is surely amongst the lower level of professionals. Would have preferred Sam on but Mark clearly always gets the leg up on the horse.

        1. You can disagree. I was talking generally re tipping and making a profit being good as most who try it make a loss. Well done on regular profits. Although you go with your own selections which you share, you like me go with certain tried and tested tipsters re horse racing I believe. As the horses I back are sourced from such tipsters and I usually back win only I guess as I am cold about it as I am long term profit driven and I do not take pride in the selection and so care less about it running well anyway if it loses. I get the pride bit as Josh beats himself up sometimes re losers he puts up and I do not like losers when I tip myself or my own selections in Football and Golf bets lose.

          I can see your angle on Pink Gin. It ran OK LTO and must have a chance. I like your other selection better and have backed it.

      2. Surely it’s much better for your mental health to be beaten regularly in a close finish as opposed to being beaten by miles, at least you know your picking horses that run well, which in turn is good for confidence and mental health.
        If selections are being beaten by miles on a regular basis I would have to question how many winners are winning by pure chance and question my sanity for selecting so many donkeys.

        1. But if you are not winning you are not winning whether you come second or last. But each to their own. What you have to question is that if you are not winning, why are you not winning and take corrective action to start winning. What I would do is look at why you did not win and why the winner won and go from there. It is likely more than one factor why something happened. I think what affects your mental health/performance is whether you are winning or not and not that you came close to winning. Just an opinion though.

    2. As Josh commented on a couple of weeks ago, staking is a personal thing, with the bookies offering that many places on most handicap races these days, shouldn’t we be capitalizing on this?
      I personally find my mental state better these days with backing each way, especially as I dutch in most races.
      If i get a second and a third in a race I`m still quite chuffed as i know that will have gained me quite a bit of profit.
      The key word is profit, as it always is and should be!
      I used to get more aggrieved at two of my horses finishing second and third and i had backed them win only, which i have done in the past.
      Like I said it`s personally what I think works with my betting long term and so long as I`m in profit it is only me who cares!?
      If anything was going to tempt me today though it would be PINK GIN though, having to stay strong as like i said keeping with the old grading system Wincanton is only grade 3, if there is a £10000+ race on i would look at the card, but, there isn’t, so, only shrapnel for me!
      I also believe some of the prize money has gone down at some of these courses, can anyone confirm this? (today a £1872 hunter chase is being contested???).
      Shocking if it has, they do this for our benefit and still get paid peanuts!!?

      1. Big Handicaps! I think that if you are profit driven, and I say if as some bet for leisure and if profit comes along all well and good, you should not be playing in such races unless you feel you have an edge. An example of this, doing some recency based back filling, the 1 and 2 in The Lincoln perhaps outclassing the main batch of runners in the race (watch out for Leader Writer who won the race on the wrong side of the course). You can of course have a dart in the race, win or each way, but long term does it pay? If you can find a 25/1 shot in a big field as Josh and others did then yes, but you need to keep stats of how you do in race type I would say to be sure you are making a profit. I do that but I have the time to do so and I would not take on such races unless Josh and others guided my thought process to do so.
        I am most comfortable in handicap chases and 5F sprints on the flat. But others prefer the all weather or non handicaps etc.

      2. Hi Stewart,
        I have just been through Festival week and my staking… repeated below… I really should have just stuck to 1 point win bets on everything but tried to be too clever – more evidence that staking should be kept simple- finding the horses is the hard bit – tieing yourself up in knots with subjective interpretations of how ‘strong’ or ‘weak’ a race is etc, and staking accordingly, is nonsense in my view- adding levels of complication not needed

        1. So – to ‘advised stakes’ (a mixture of 1/2 point win through to 1 point EW and everything in between… not going 1 point win on the Albert Bartlett picks was my main problem, in part driven by the fact that I only had 1 point left from my allotted bank for the day, so I won’t be too perturbed but….)

        35.5 points stakes, +92 points profit.

        2. 1/2 point EW- betting 1/2 point EW on every tip, 33 points staked, +76.1 points profit I think. and…

        3. 1 point win bets… 33 points stakes, +109 points profit!

        Those results have been similar ever since I started and looked back at EW versus win only etc. Hence my own personal reluctance to bet/advise EW- however I have got to my current racing mentality/analysis mentality, it currently points to 1 point win bets, or consistent level staking, being far more preferable (in terms of profit/ROI) than going 1/2 point EW. Part of that will be how I analyse horses- which isn’t with an ‘EW’ mindset, which I think is why I probably don’t find enough placed horses at big prices to make EW worthwhile. And I am more than content to suck up the long long losing runs that can come with my approach- and that is the main argument for EW- and a valid one…mentally and financially, ‘staying in the game’ etc.

        It does show that over thinking staking is folly – especially if you have a similar approach to analysis for every race/tip that you find – which for any good tipster it will be I think- mainly as part of the process becomes second nature, and you tend to make the same judgements on each horse for me.

        So maybe the lesson there is to be consistent, whatever your approach, I think- 1/2 point EW, 1 point win, 1 point EW. Etc. Same stake for each tip- because it is too complex thinking about when to be more confident or less confident, playing too much on the human mind I suspect- it isn’t systematic or logical- which maybe that proved in Festival week- me putting 1.5 points on some, 2 point win on one, 1/2 win, 1 point EW on other etc etc.

        (in part plenty of those reasons are why I have such an issue with SP2As staking, which I have made clear in private to Ian, and why I ignore their advice and go 1 point win on everything, or if you prefer EW betting, say 1/2 EW or 1 point EW on everything… for me, and my own experience, you can only balls up when to decide to go 1/4 point through to 1 point EW- it lacks logic for me, when the reasoning behind picking the horse in the first place – the hardest part- is generally the same!)

        Anyway, plenty there to get stuck into a disagree with etc!

        Josh

          1. Disagree in what sense, most of yours are 1 point EW aren’t they? So you have a consistent staking approach? I think that is the main point. Everyone will always disagree over win only versus EW for a variety of valid reasons, but at least in Festival week (and I know from looking at my free tip blog results before), a 1 point win on everything, in terms of profit and ROI, is clearly preferable to the other options! In that example above that can’t be disputed can it.
            You said the key word is profit – the evidence from that small sample is clear evidence of what the most profitable approach is – in terms of my own approach to analysis etc.
            Josh

          2. I meant in the sense of each way and win ,yes, i stake consistently so therefore i know where i am in relation to profit and long term objectives, if my bank increases, the 1pt ew still holds strong. Therefore when i have a bad run it covers it and likewise when I’m on a good run helps with the profit!!

          3. The only way to know whether win or each way betting is best in terms of overall profit is to track the performance of all your selections at 1 point win and at 1/2 point each way etc. That is the way I do it. Then all you have to do is to see on an ongoing basis which comes out best on profit. The argument I can see for each way betting is where there is limited betting bank available and you cannot afford too much of a losing run. Each way would in theory smooth that out as long as your non win selections do place on occasion. I do not think it is more complex than that unless it is personal preference and non profit related? Then we get in to the realms of psychology and how the brain works, so let’s leave it there.

      3. Just glancing and I do mean glancing over prize money stats for Wincanton from 2013 -2017 and there doesn’t seem to be anything that jumps out apart from races upto 4k.
        So in chronological order there were 71, 60, 56, 49 and 41 of races which suggests the money is going up rather than down. The other prize brackets don’t show anything significant at all, but I guess soggy days will always skew results.

    3. Trainer out of form but Spirit of Gondree is way too big at 66/1 in the last at Wolves today. Was 2nd when I tipped her up last month with the same jockey and this is the first time he drops into a class 7. Have chucked a £5 e/w on him.

  2. Nothing from me tonight folks. I’m going to take an extended break from posting (or quit while I’m ahead!) until I get a HRB membership and try to find other angles for the AW. I will track my current stats against the flat turf and who knows there may be some joy there.

    I’ll still be here following and may chip in with the occasional word but I think I need a complete break and hopefully come back refreshed in a few weeks. In any case there’s always Colin for the AW (although I may have put the mockers on him today – oops!).

    Good Luck

    1. Hi Ken, sorry that you have hit a rough patch. All we can do is offer some general advice if we do not know what your system(s) is? What I would do is continue to work on system/approach development but at the same time paper trade what you have just to see how it goes? After all what size is a meaningful sample? 1,000 races? 10,000 races? 1 Million races? Subjective really. The flat may well be a good place to try something similar or different? Anyway good luck and pick our collective brains as you think fit.

      1. Cheers Martin. TBH I didn’t realise how much effort and energy it takes to keep the system updated, so I think a few weeks away and possibly HRB may help to re-focus the mind.

        1. Yes, it is hard to put the time in when you also have to go to work etc. Even when you are doing this sort of thing full time you still have to put in the hours to make it pay I find. I always try to keep systems as lean and as clear cut as you can to cut down on time picking through and the others on this site do help me with that via their contributions. My experience has taught me that those who have something that does work re tipping/backing horses etc keep it simple. The tipster I put some of the users of this site onto works full time and has four youngish kids and so you can imagine how structured he needs to be each day. I can remember being in the same boat as him and having a horse racing system and a stock market system on the go as well. I did not do much sleeping and was usually knackered.

          1. Hi Ken.

            Sorry to hear you’re taking a break but hopefully it will do the trick and you’ll be back soon.

            My only observation, and I hope you don’t mind me sharing it, is that you seemed very quick to tweak your system when a blank day or two came along. If the logic behind the system is right then the blank days shouldn’t be reason to change anything. Perhaps the number of selections is a catalyst for this as well. If you only have 2-3 selections per day and hit a couple of blanks in a row you’re only going to be 4-6 points down and possibly wouldn’t feel the pressure to fix something that probably isn’t broken.

            Stick at it, you can’t have hit all those winners without being onto something.
            Jamie

          2. Hi Jamie. There’s a bit of truth in what you say but I didnt make any big changes to the strategy. Even if I’d stuck with my original I’d still have lost a similar amount. I think there is something more fundamental I’m missing and a bit of time off might unscramble the brain. Cheers

  3. Evening Josh

    Loving the blog mate.

    Being a massive fan of Aintree I was hoping you would be covering in the same way as Cheltenham, what are the chances if any?

    1. Hi Jim,
      There will be some coverage on the free blog posts- not as much depth as Cheltenham…mainly as I go for all three days and very much try to enjoy the event socially – it also doesn’t have the same depth to the Festival in terms of the stats/trainers etc etc.

      I will pull together a report as with last years (in the research link in key and repeated below…)

      http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Aintree-2017.-six-handicaps.pdf

      I will focus on 6 or so handicaps I suspect and will do my best. Festival week I don’t really leave the flat, I’m up at 7, in bed for 12, and am mainly ‘thinking horse’ in most of that time, with some time off in afternoon to watch a couple hours etc. That’s how I like to attack it but I do not attack Aintree with the same verve, and a day at the races, on your feet all day etc, is tiring! Still, we made +16 points or so over the three days last year and it would be good if I could do the same. That track, despite being my local, can be tough for me- it either goes well or very very badly!

      Josh

    1. Ah yes cheers…
      As an aside as to your systems…if there is any trainer/jockey/track (well, any non speed rating element or indeed any other ratings set) elements etc, you really do need to get HRB, esp if you have been doing it manually!! Anyway, maybe that will rekindle your enthusiasm when getting going again. For some reason I’m imagining you in your study buried in reams of paper, notes everything haha. Although at times my office space looks like that, I do like a bit of pen and paper!
      Josh

      1. Haha. No I do not believe in pen and paper. Writing was never my strong point so everything is done on PC but it requires a lot of manual data entry. Subs for HRB are not available just now but hopefully in a few weeks. The break will do me good. I don’t know how you manage it seven days a week!!

        1. Hello Ken
          Your Strategy/System worked well in deep aw season.Might be just a seasonal thing.Most of the older horses running on all weather have no improvement,so will win in their turn when the trainer has hit form and maybe handicapper has given them a break.Its only a theory but maybe some are giving their horses a break before flat and some are getting horses fit before the flat proper.Monitor the summer aw,and then maybe return to it in Nov, i wouldn’t give up on the original idea

          1. I agree…. you were 90 points + (BFSP) before the drought that started early Feb’. Problem is that we know little about the selection methods you are using, but if it works November thru to the end of January you know what to do next year. For value hunters…. fresh horses and newcomers are often a fruitful place to look for profits.

            Maybe you just have to accept, particularly on the AW where a lot of these horses are out every week, the supply of fresh horses will be exhausted within a relatively short period.

            Tim

          2. Cheers guys. No I’m not giving up and clearly it did seem to work from Oct to Jan, so it looks like it is a handicapping issue or a seasonal thing. I will be tracking both AW and flat through the summer so there might be other handicapping/seasonal patterns that emerge which can only help for future strategies.

  4. Wolverhampton 2.50 Vigee Le Brun 12/1 ew

    2nd start for D.O’Meara and although finishing behind Street Poet and Let Me In last time I thought it was a much improved showing from this 12 race maiden as she travelled nicely in that race.
    She can improve again on her 2nd run for O’Meara over the same c/d with cheekpieces re-applied.

    I dont have the stats but O’Meara is a dab hand at improving cast offs from other stables.

    1. Vigee ran her race so i’m not disappointed, she didn’t show any improvement from her last run and thats where I was wrong.

  5. Does anyone have any opinions or experience of the long standing site flatstats? I have never been a member but used to find the owner of the site interesting to chat to on the Betfair forum years ago.

    1. I have never used his (Flatstats) ratings or speed figures but his stats engine is excellent and I believe the subscription is reasonable when you compare it with other similar services. Realistic alternative to Proform for a lot less money.

      Tim

  6. Tips – two losers yesterday that took us back to -7 points for an abridged March. One today, 3.05 Win, Apache Song, fell LTO when travelling OK, will handle soft going and looks well suited to the conditions of this race. 2 points win.
    I am not backing these horses until they show a steady profit and so you should do the same.

      1. You need to be more confident in your ability Martin! You’re either a) putting these up as you are confident in your long term record? or b) are treating it as a sort of test/learning/developing skills etc, and as such will want to wait until you’re happy with progress over sample size x?
        Either way, that’s a very good winner and a two pointer too! I would personally have something on them, even if only small, as may improve results further – I’m sure when you bet and/or post in a forum it does certainly help focus on the mind as to your approach etc. Well done.

        1. OK, I rate others better at tipping on horse racing than me. I am good at backing certain others selections and systems and micros and trackers etc that I use. I spend my time working on that rather than scouring the form book. Anyway, let’s go £10 on all my selections from now on up to end April and see where we get to.

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