Free Daily Post: 28/03/18 (complete)

just the micros , no tips but thoughts

TIPS

None. I have had a look at the 4.15 but can’t muster enough enthusiasm for anything at the prices. I doubt the two Tizzard horses will be far away, they may well be fighting it out, but their prices reflect that. Pink Gin is interesting to a point but something niggled at me-  Venetia’s horse has the most interesting profile but plenty of hope rests on the CP returning, worn successfully in France. Her horses are running more consistently now but there is also a big stamina unknown also- maybe she will improve for it. She was rock bottom of HRB ratings which always may be wary – they do win from down there, but not very often. A race I’ll just watch with some interest rather than diving in. You can make bits and pieces of cases for plenty- maybe a case of just sticking with those in form, proven in conditions, which are the two Tizzard horses that head the market. This ground has now gone very heavy also, which makes it more interesting. I’ll bottle it and sit it out! GL if you have a play. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Tom George Chasers 

3.40 Winc – Some Are Lucky 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test 

4.15 Winc – Two Hoots (9/1< guide) 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. AW BETS
    First of all Southwell yesterday it may be me but the sand looked very deep i know that they are resurfacing soon using the same material as Wolverhampton so doubt there will be another bet at Southwell till this is done,a grim day yesterday.
    Wolverhampton
    2.20 Awesome Allan
    2.20 It Must Be Faith
    2.50 Top Offer
    4.35 Glory Awaits
    4.35 Energia Flavio
    5.05 Gone With The Wind
    5.05 Jeremy’s Jet
    5.05 Spirit Of Gondree

    1. Sounds like a wise move to me, looked a bit muckier.

      Covering days like that is the reason for the betting bank.

      (I’m a scratched old record too!)

        1. Thank you for the winners.

          Scratch.

          Thank you for the winners.

          Scratch.

          Thank you for the winners.

          Scratch…

    2. Colin, I was aware they had decided to remove the Fibresand but now aware they had decided to go with Tapeta (Wolves and Newcastle) as opposed to Polytrack (others) or a 3rd option.

      Personally; with too much AW already, I wish they would have taken the opportunity, with NEW FLOODLIGHTS coming in to turf the AW track and to switch Turf Flat to the inside and have Turf NH round the outside making it a better more galloping shape.

      The one big “missing” we have is a floodlit Turf Track and that could be a great asset in Spring and Autumn when ground is raceable and surely far better than more AW fodder.

      Having said that and having been to Wolverhampton a few times over the years, I do prefer Tapeta and Polytrack in terms of the believability of the form.

      1. Those investors who bought into the American, bred in the USA, type of sand horse will miss the Sands of Southwell especially those folk who back such a horse….winner yesterday MONK’S STAND was a bred (USA) qualifier

        Josh mentions a Venetia horse in the 4.15, ACHILLE….had 4 runs in the UK, first run back in 2015 it lost a shoe in a race at Ascot, then nearly 2 years later it had 2 runs in Chases ….both races beaten Favourite……then it’s last run was a Hurdle finishing 7th

        today it’s back in a chase….yesterday the stable had a good priced winner but if this can get home ??? …so why has she kept hold of it for the number of years and achieved nothing….very strange, must show some potential but when will that happen

        1. Can only guess that the Owners (Mrs Vida Bingham) is a very good supporter of the Yard (she seems a longstanding one) as her only other Horse in Training Nesterenko seems to be a long term absentee too.

    3. I don’t know if its easy enough to check but personally I avoid anything below 3/1 on anything I back so have been putting the selections at a minimum of 4 BFSP (having a full time job I dont have time to put on all the picks using bookies so this is just easier plus there are enough big price winners to offset any being backed) which seems to have been working out well and cuts down the selections. Nice 12.14 BFSP winner there (and the other didnt qualify so point saved)

  2. Ian yesterday you stated that Fergal O brien withdrew a horse with the cough.
    I see he has Runners at Warwick today on form they look like they have an ew squeak
    The first is interesting as there is an odds on chance.
    so looking for an e/w horse to take on the favourite
    so if I can take O’briens horse out of the equation
    then it puts the odds in my favour

    This is a funny time of year horses start to get jaded
    and obvious form horse over jumps often go over the top and run stinkers.

    I always check on handicappers if at this time in previous seasons they suddenly lose form

    1. It will be very interesting to see how the Fergal runner today runs, there can always be instances where 1-2 in a yard get the virus (cough) but it can spread like wildfire, so a lot down to catching it early which allows them to incubate/remove those affected.

      The next few F0-B will tell us more.

      There may be a very nice one in there against the odds on favourite as my members will be aware.

  3. Cracking winner there Ian. Shame you downgraded it to a mention since I guess you cannot count it in the stats but I kept the faith with 1pt on the nose.

    1. I had it down as a tip and backed it at 9/1. Won too easily Ian, too easy, no sweat.

      What is your next tip, England to win the World Cup? No? very sensible.

    2. Yes got myself in to a right mess there staking wise, the initial thought was it’ll go short with 7 runners, as many seem to have found, for several hours it was still 9-10/1 with 7 runners, as young Josh points out, and I can’t argue with him, staking is our achilles heel at the moment, no doubt we are too conservative at times, I’ll always be an EW advocate but the point part needs rectifying. It may be the the staking will be moved to the Tipsters themselves and not me as the final arbiter, we shall have to think about that.

      Good you and Martin both treated as you did, horse certainly loves Wincanton doesn’t he, but Ron Hodges is one of those crafty old boys who knows when to have one primed. A couple of years ago I was sat chatting with John Spearing at Wolverhampton about a horse I had a slither in, Ron Hodges and Milton Bradley walked in, sat down at the same table and just talked racing for about an hour; I just sat there kept my gob shut and ears open, over 240 years of age between the 3 of them and still working 16+ hours a day, priceless and in there way absolute legends!

      As for England winning the World Cup ; I was 6 in 1966 and doubt it will happen in another 60 years. I’m off to see my Blues (Birmingham City) under 18’s in Youth cup semi final next week, they play Chelsea. A squad of home grown lads all form within 50 miles of Birmingham all on basic money, from the same Academy that has turned out Butland; Redmond and Grey in last 5 years . Chelsea, not one British kid in recent squad; and the disgusting fact that 6 or the Chelsea U18 squad earn over £20;000 per week; that’s more than all but 3 of Birmingham’s current First Team Squad and Chelsea have over 30 players (95% foreign) out on loan across world aged between 19 and 23 – average wage is £30,000 per week. Barmy; utterly barmy.

      When i was a young lad my paternal Uncle Ernie lived in Dudley, his great Uncle was a guy called Harry Hampton, scored Cup Final winner and England International for the ****a (can’t bring myself to type that word) and at the bottom of Uncle Ernies Garden was a gate, a few times he would take me through the gate to meet the lady who lived there, her name was Sarah Edwards, her son was Duncan Edwards, who many think to this day the greatest player England ever produced. He never earned much more that peanuts, his mother lived to her death in the same Council Estate (Wrens Nest) also spawned Sam Allardyce from same area, how times change and how utterly divorced from reality too much of modern sport is…sorry must get off the soapbox…but the world of sport has truly gone mental!

      1. Blimey, to have been sat around that table with those judges – so, that’s your secret, all the notes you made haha.

        Staking… will forever be tricky for all of us, but as discussed in private, you get the hard bit right, which is more than the majority! (actually finding over-priced horses/regular long term profits) And I have no intentions of dictating staking haha – I’m not sure I get it right that often! And your ROIs between different approaches are similar. Judging when something will be a mention through to 1 pt EW will never be perfect, it’s just finding a way to make it as stress free as possible! And as clear/precise as possible, and providing the info (P/L for mentions, which I know you’re working on) so subscribers, me included, can make the best informed choice we can.

        And in fairness today was just one of those days, in terms of timing and anguish (which I could sense!) in the write up under the tipping box… I just wouldn’t worry about non runners etc. It was still 1/4 2 places – and that situation will be so rare, you are best not over thinking it – whatever the stake may be, I wouldn’t let potential non runners affect a tipping stake- especially when they may come in mid write up/about to press send! Just let it be, it all evens out! I just feared someone may have read the write up and not backed them to their usual stake, if at all, and when they win like that it compounds the misery! I suspect nearly all backed as advised in the table.

        As I have discussed my starting point would be 1/2 point EW on everything, which seems to be the sensible level- and then it is working out a process off grading down to 1/4 point EW or up to 1pt EW, in a way which means you can be as consistent as possible, and not over think it. Well, that’s my personal view anyway! I have faith in you/your teams process in terms of how you get to the horses in the first place, (with the results since Oct 1st how could you not) and then just level stake everything!

        Best, Josh

      2. Congratulations on the selection Ian, that is the hard part.

        I had been a keen win only punter as that was where the most profit was in my personal selections but I share them with my family and friends and after a particularly long losing run from late autumn through the winter months, my sons had taken to backing the selections ew to ease the pressure on their betting banks.

        After taking your trial this year and seeing your statement “if you can’t win don’t lose” I have changed my approach and now prefer 75% win and 25% place as I think this maximises the win and also gives the bank some protection for the placing.

        Bank preservation seems to be the most important thing to achieve whilst waiting on the wins to boost it up.

        I feel it is good for the mind to have this insurance even if it doesn’t return full stake when the selection only places

      3. So true about modern day “wages” that are “earned” by young players. I am related to a professional footballer from the 70’s 80’s who was also a manager but quit and when I asked why he just said he couldn’t manage millionaires who were happy to sit on the bench every week for 10/20 grand a week, especially as most weren’t fit to lace the boots of the players he played with and against in his heyday. Also the captain of my team and his brother in the 80’s travelled on a service bus home after training(old division 3/4)how times change!!!

  4. Chris; I agree with your 75/25 logic, seems eminently sensible.

    I’m sure “if you can’t win don’t lose” was coined before I started to use it; it just came in to head one day in an email char with an old SP2A Member as best way to try to explain my logic without writing 1000 words, and it has become something of our “mission statement”.

    I do agree with those who say it has a lot to do with psychology; as it shifts the feeling from have I won or lost to have I won big, have I won small or have I lost. That might be lost when written down but if you think about it literally, you have increased your win chance from 50/50 to 66/33 in terms of “winning” v losing, and that has to be mentally positive in my opinion.

    I won’t kid anyone though that the “if you can’t win don’t lose” mentality has deep commercial reasoning too. It’s not hard in winning months to say, we won x; in losing months you have to hold your hands up and say we lost y – that again is a 50/50 split, but the “if you can’t win don’t lose” methodology, in a commercial mindset means that instead of a batch of 16- 20 – 25/1 placed horses being “unlucky losers” they become “unlucky or lucky winners” albeit small winners; but a win is a win. The bottom line commercially is that it is far easier to talk about big wins + small wins and losers, as opposed to winners and losers, as the “small win” means that you don’t come over as continually making excuses about losers, and we’ve all been there, big priced horses losing on the nod, problem is, when you speak about anything that has lost it can and does come over as an “excuse” be it intended or not.

    We all have different personalities, bold/timid come to mind with betting, no right nor wrong, just personal choice, but I can reflect at the end of any day with a 66% chance of a win, staking each way in my strange logic, than a 50% chance of a win, and that does my timid mental state no harm at all.

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