Members Daily Post: 20/03/18 (complete)

Section 1, test zone, results update/discussion/video

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wetherby

3.05 –

Monfass (all hncps) H1 I3 10/3   UP

Quest For Life (all hncps + hncp h) (hncp h debut)  9/2 2nd

3.40- Isaacstown Lad (all hncps + hncp h) 14,30 H1 I1 G3 7/2 S4   UP

4.10 –

Doktor Glaz (all hncps) w1 H1 I1 7/2  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Allmyown (m1) 14,30 5/1 WON 

Bandon Roc (m1+m1) G3 5/2  S1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th March 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/43,15p, +2)  (1 point win bets)

Notes – NONE

Nothing tempting me in at the prices above, for tipping purposes.

The most interesting horse is Quest For Life… he will probably hack up like a 6/4 shot and I will be left thinking ‘why didn’t I think 9/2 was value’!! You know how it goes. Given that Heavy is a complete unknown, the fact he has yet to win a race, and he carries 11-12 in testing conditions for an inexperienced horse, I wanted a bigger price. Were he 8s, 10s+, he’d have been a tip for sure I think. He makes handicap hurdle debut here.. R Walford is 3/16,5p, +36 with such types in the last two years. This horse appears to have been campaigned honestly…there is a chance that this ground taps into stamina as yet seen – he is from a winning point family and maybe he wants further – so this test may actually be what he wants. His form is interesting… I was trying to work out how the hell he got a mark of 120… the horse that beat him LTO (he came 3rd, so the winner of that race) by 4l or so, got allotted OR126. He has since bolted up at Market Rasen off that mark- so, on that ‘collateral form’ (not a strong point of mine) in theory he should be well handicapped – at some point. He is lightly raced in any case and given his consistency in novice races, he clearly has wins in him. The lack of ‘ratings pointers’ put me off a tad also- all in the context of his price.

So, do with that as you please! You may judge 9/2 to be decent. It isn’t a great race. Given his profile he is worth keeping tabs on. I mentioned two others at 7s+ below for Martin. They looked interesting but have as many questions as Quest For Life, with any luck one wins… I thought Monfass was short enough given Heavy is a complete unknown and he can be a keen bugger- they may not go much of a pace here, if jocks are all worried about getting their horses home, and that may not help him. I could just be talking nonsense though. He does arrive in form.

Not a race to go mad on to my eyes.

Isaacstown Lad looks solid if unspectacular for S4. I’d like to think he will run his race and go close against that lot.

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Wetherby ‘through the card’ Notes.. Martin W, if you’re reading..  as requested (not sure I gave you a winner LTO, well, nearly day made but for a fall at the last when miles clear!)

3.05 – Final Choice 7s/ Bonnie Question 8s – this is going to be a slog, i’m not sure you’d want to dive into much at shorter priced (9/2<)- on that basis the two quals above in Section 1 may look short enough, based on odds at time of writing. Reasons to think both those mentioned may out-run odds. I’d probably get on soon enough- one/both may shorten, and if they drift, given profiles esp for Venetia’s, it won’t be a good sign! (see above for notes on Quest For Life, I won’t put you off him if you like the price)

3.40- Isaactstown Lad for S4 looks solid at 7/2, well worth a go if going trackside- and given the race, that may be a fair enough price anyway… Pipe’s is ‘could be anything’ but steps up massively in trip and in a bog. Trainer has a poor record handicap H debutants also- IF Isaac repeats his last run, he is the one they have to beat. Yes he is 11 but a touch of class, and he just gallops through the mud. Richards red-hot at moment also. No reason not to have a good go! (finger crossed)

4.10- ah- well i’m not that keen on the three in section 1 at the odds! Bandon is short for one who is a moody bugger, drop in trip may or may not help..he prob throws in towel or hacks up! I like Newberry New of those at top of market – back in class from LTO and back to flatter track- looks sure to run his race to my eye. Interested in what the market does with Square Viviani – lost his way in France, returned for Hammond over 16f LTO…he was visibly outpaced at times there.. this step up in trip is interesting and the heavy… a chance he could take a while to adjust to UK though – and as luck would have it, as he does so, his handicap mark will plummet! Before hacking up at Sedgefield one day in a shocker of a C5 🙂 if I were going racing I would be looking at NN and some change on him, just in case!

4.45 Log On – 12/1 EW – it’s a shocker of a race but the trainer’s record here in ‘standard’ handicap hurdles is decent, esp last two years… this one drops massively in trip from last run (weakened 3 from home)  and the headgear is removed having been on a few starts – he may enjoy that, or it will be very evident why they reached for it in first place! He also returns 13 days after last run- his two runs before that were after a month or so each – interesting. Market will no doubt guide but I couldn’t attack the first 3 in market at 4/1< in a race of that nature, the going etc. Although two LTO winners so one may take it, hopefully this one can place at worst for you.

I’ll leave the rest to you Martin! Be warned, I’m now due a shed load of losers 🙂 (and the usual caveat, that was a very brief look, but some method to my madness)

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS UPDATE/VIDEO/WHERE TO BEGIN? 

 

Firstly… the advised strategies results update link in the Key has been updated, you can flick through HERE>>>

Secondly, I have added a new first page or two which is worth a read, I have repeated it below. You can either watch the video of me talking through it or just read the content below that.

It includes a ‘where to begin’ piece and a look at three promising angles in development… ‘ES+ Double/Treble Rated’, 16-25/1 shots, and ‘In-Form Horses’ 

So, the video… hopefully you find it useful…

 

First two pages of new text repeated…

 

 

Summary: Jumps Strategies

The below comments refer to content that follows further down in this report. I advise having a good flick through all content that follows, including the results updates for each Strategy. Each strategy is explained in more depth following the summary and results to date.

The below intro ‘where to begin’ may give you some ideas on where to start with some of the systematic content found within the daily members’ posts.

 

Where to begin?

(for jumps/summer jumps qualifiers)

(figures stated correct as of 19/03/2018)

I think a decent aim is to create a betting strategy portfolio, from the info below, that could win around +50-100 points over a calendar year from all jumps + summer jumps qualifiers. (and the same again from any Flat strategies)

As previously discussed I would start with S1 + S4

 

Strategy 1 (S1)

S1, since the start of 2017: 170 bets / 21 wins /12% win SR/ +106 early|bog / +131 BFSP

  • 62 – 77% ROI to date
  • 12% SR does mean long losing runs, at times, are likely. Long term profit is the aim.
  • Confidence in the constant that is the Geegeez Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) gives hope that these figures will continue to repeat over time.

 

Strategy 4 (S4)

S4, end of August 2017 to date: 131 bets / 41 wins / 74 places / 31% wsr / 56% wpsr / +23.10

  • At first glance maybe not too impressive but it is a solid, if unspectacular, 18% return on investment.
  • My long-term confidence stems from the constant that is the three ratings sets. And also the solid win/place SR. S4 has had a slight wobble in 2018 but the place stats are in line with what you would expect. If a 56% win/place SR can be maintained, that profit figure should steadily climb over time. There is also the Flat version to look forward to.

 

Of the rest…

In terms of taking a systematic approach, it’s fair to say many of the others are on the naughty step and at times have struggled, certainly in 2018 to date. I may have been too eager with diving in to the odd strategy. S2 should be fine over time but that is a rocky ride, and not for the faint-hearted. S5 has had a torrid time of it this year so far, but there is every chance it will go on a winning streak. Again, at the SR/odds, such runs are likely, but it may be a case of wanting to see evidence before attacking those with confidence. There have been a few close placed seconds which would have made a big difference to the results. Not one to lose faith in just yet.

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An exciting future?

Due to past errors of diving in too quickly (S3/S3a the chief culprits in that, my fault) I want to ‘wait and see’ before ‘advising’ diving in with the below, but three angles are looking promising… for now such qualifiers could be used as ‘starting points’ – ways in that you can use before looking at the horses in more depth, and deciding if you wish to back them.  

 

S3A Double/Treble Rated

  • When a horse hits the ‘best of’ my micro systems from the TTP stats reports, indicated by ES+ next to their name. ES+ is based on trainer behaviour and not the ability of the horse, as with all quals in section 1 and 3. Only following ES+ when they also have two or three ratings pointers next to their name (the red symbols, as per Key), looks promising.
  • So far this jumps season, from Sept 1st 2017 to 18th Feb 2018…
    • 56 bets / 17 wins / 25p / +31 points (to early|bog)
  • IF those stats can be repeated every 56 bets or so, that would be fantastic. There will be a Flat version also. After 100 bets we may have a clearer picture. Given this angle is based on solid stats research (trainer behaviour) and the constant that is the ratings pointers, fingers crossed it keeps ticking away.

 

Strategy 2: 16/1-25/1

  • It may take some time for the numbers to reveal all here, but just focussing on any Section 1 qualifier that is 16/1-25/1 on widely available morning prices (the price I put next to the qualifier every morning) may be profitable, especially as an Each-Way angle. It is still early days.
    • 2018-
      • Win only (1 point win): 2/32,9p, +7 , +21 (BFSP)
      • Each Way (1/2 point EW): 2/32,9p, +13.1
      • Each Way (1pt EW): 2/32,9p, +26.2

 

In-Form Horses

  • This simply looks at any stats qualifier in Section 1 or Section 3 (Test Zone) that won on it’s last start or won two starts ago. A W1 or W2 next to its name. It is that simple. I started tracking these on the 12th Feb 2018. In just four weeks…
    • Section 1: 11/32, 13p, +33.77
      • Inc 20/1 winner
    • Section 3 (test zone): 4/15, 6p, +1
    • Total: 15/47,19p, +34.77
  • Again, it is early days for this one but it makes plenty of logical sense. We are dealing with a horse in form, so every chance it may run its race. And it makes sense for a trainer, with an in-form horse, to target a track/race type where they have a good record.

Elsewhere, I have the ‘handicap debutants’ to keep an eye on, and I will be doing my best to ensure the ‘Notes’ (tips if you will) can add another 100-200 points per year to the pot. (section 2 of the daily members posts) There is also the ‘Test Zone’ to take note of, as below.

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Results Update: Summary below, link in Key updated

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 19th Feb-18th March

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 14/124,34p, -24.78
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 9/89, -33.54
  • S1 (1/7,2p,+4, +2 BFSP) S2 (2/36,8p, -4, +4 BFSP) S3 (0/19,4p, -19) S3A (4/16,5p, +3) S4 (6/22,10p, +4.22) S5 (1/24,5p, -13, -15 BFSP)
  • S3 is no longer advised- i was too eager with that one, S3A as stand alone is edging towards the naughty step, S5 could do with a few agonising seconds keeping their head in front, but it will come. 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  1/15,3p, +6

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 4/39,11p, -16.5

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago): 11/38, 12p, +20.72

Handicap Debut: 1/20,3p -17.5

S3A Double/Treble rated: 2/4,2p, +11.5

 

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Independent Review

Elsewhere, Steve Adams of Racing Index (who joined last week as a punter) has kindly written a review of the week. I enjoyed the read, not sure why! 🙂 

You can read it HERE>>>

(oh, and as it could play a role in sending more people to join our extended family, if you wanted to post a comment under Steve’s review, that would be great – that is blatant marketing, and you can just tell me where to stick such a request! But the thoughts of real members/readers never hurts) 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. Afternoon Josh.

    Having been a member since last October , i know how much hard work you put into this site (great website it is) it’s been a bit of a bumpy ride for me personally, maybe diving into several strategies a bit too eagerly and not standing back and taking my time to figure out which way I want to approach the strategies, after Jan I changed my plan of attack, less strategies, less horses and it started working out better for me :), now after that exceptional week we’ve just had at Cheltenham I think now it’s time for me to step back and take a bit of a breather (feels like the end of the season for me, even though there’s punchestown and aintree to come!) So I wanted to say a big thank you for a) running a great site and b) helping me learn much more about the game. I’ll be back at some point when the new season gets under way later this year :).

    1. Hi Matt,
      No problem, thanks for your kind words. Well, if we are being honest, my initial advice could have been clearer on the advised strategies front, and I was too eager with S3, S3A , so you can blame me for those! In general, up until last week, it has been a struggle on the jumps strategies, no hiding from that- in part I don’t think the core stats have performed as well, for whatever reason, and i’d have expected better from most. At times it has felt like just keeping our heads above water, but given the odds we generally play at there is always the hope of a spike around the corner.
      Less is definitely more I feel, and I could have done more to get you to the place you reached after Jan, much earlier in your journey, so I can only apologise for that.
      With any luck last week made up for any short-comings. I feel like I have been through the ringer this last week, but on we trudge, it was worth it.
      Anyway, enjoy your time away/the summer, and with any luck you will return at some point,
      Josh

  2. Josh, I don’t think you give yourself as much credit as you deserve, even during the quieter times your analysis of races is spot on and your tipping is second to none! There’s nothing you could have done more for me before I started attacking the strategies, it was just me being a bit of an eager beaver, as I joined you was going through a golden spell, winners going in all over the shop. It’s great also that the many regular contributors chip in everyday with their little nuggets of information. The community feel on here mixed with the tons of information you offer on here makes it a certainty I’ll be back in the near future.

  3. Nothing from the 4 picks (1 NR) on the revised strategy today. Let’s give it a chance to see how it performs. Newcastle tomorrow. Qualifiers are as follows:
    7.15 Major Crispies 13/2
    7.45 Paparazzi 11/2 & Odds On Oli 5/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    1. Good idea Ken, give it a few weeks with only obvious tweaks if you feel they are necessary. Regression to the mean and all that, that nasty thing called randomness and the even worse devil, sample size! You can see my risk management training paid off in the past.

      Josh, I watched the results video (I enjoy that sort of stuff) and as you have picked up on at some stage is that the hardest thing to do is decide which strategy or system or micro to go with as you cannot go with them all because of bankroll size? I think that most will pick based upon their own biases and that there is likely not any other main reason for doing so’ unless it is obvious or you tell them which one to go with, which I am not suggesting. If you watch the video I think you can make it simpler by preference in that you can go for long term ROI but fewer winners and so strain on the bankroll, or more winners by % and keep the bankroll more fluid. I can see why some go with a certain person they like, such as Paddy Brennan or in my case Nick Williams and Lizzie Kelly in handicaps. There is no solid reason for that except your brain having a preference for such.
      Anyone else any thoughts on making such a process easier? Ramble over.

      1. I thought I had been clear, as I have for the last few months… to start with S1 and/or S4?? That is clear isn’t it, from everything above?? That is a good balance between a longer odds one/lower SR, which has done well since live at start of 2017, and because of faith in GG speed ratings, should tick along, with inevitable losing runs etc. So far, so good, and a decent enough start to 2018. And S4, which is 30% win SR, 55% win/p to date- the figures for that across jumps + flat stack up as being decent enough- a wobble in 2018, which will hopefully pass soon – but with any luck that can just keep ticking over, and if it ends up on a long term 20% ROI, that wouldn’t be too bad. again, as based on the 3 ratings sets, built on my stats qualifiers, I am as confident as I can be. As always there is the question of when is the evidence enough etc, tied in with the logic underpinning the approach.
        I’d think a 100-150 point bank for 1+4 should be sufficient.
        On the logic of S1 + S4, with any luck S3A double/treble rated can do the same. If it repeats those results every 50 bets then happy days!

        Yep, forget bankroll for a moment- backing them all may just not be that fun! Prob too many bets, not enough focus, and not enough mental space in which to pick your own stuff/engage in other content. I’d like to think 1-2 strategies, 1-3 angles as ‘starting points’, the notes, + any of your own stuff, and maybe if you follow a tipping service or 2, is a nice little portfolio!

        Josh

        1. Although I mentioned your name initially Josh, I was asking a general question to anyone else reading it. Yes I think that you have been clear. The tricky thing for me and others is that we can either follow or do our own thing. My interest was what others do and why? Sorry if I rambled and was not clear.

  4. The only thing I’d like to add to the general ramblings about how we can improve our action in the forth coming seasons. For me I ‘turned the corner’ when I decided to take a broader approach but focus my attention on the quality races. Is no surprise to me that Josh (and others) found great form after being in the doldrums for a while during Cheltenham week.

    Nowadays I don’t even look at the low grade stuff cos I know I have a far greater chance of finding something the market has overlooked in a field of quality nags than I have in a field full of monkeys. Doesn’t matter whether it’s hurdles, chase or flat. Can be long or short distance as long as I have the angle AND the odds to make it worth the risk.

    As Phil Bull once said…. ‘you can’t create the circumstances you need to have to have a good bet’. (Or words to that effect). So I guess what I’m saying is the best you can do is to make sure you are ready for when those circumstances come along.

    1. Sorry but I disagree. I find plenty of value in the low grade stuff. SP2A are also very good at finding winners at that level. I think this is even more so in the 6-8 weeks running up to the festival can be a pain because you have to work out what is running to protect marks in the top races where as the bottom end don’t generally have such lofty aspirations. Hopefully now the festival is out of the way the handbrakes are all off.

      1. No need to apologise just to disagree Nick. Is just a manifestation of the different approaches we all take to get the same thing. If you can find good opportunities in the lower grade stuff then you’d be a fool not to take them. The good thing about the summer season is that there’s so much racing it doesn’t really matter where you need to look to find your action, there’s plenty for all.

      2. I agree that at the big festivals – NH and Flat – the horses tend to be running to win and so you can have more confidence with bigger stakes. I’m not convinced that that is the case all the rest of the time. At the moment, funnily enough, I find that a Saturday is the hardest day to make money on, even though the “better” races are running. I find that I’m staking more in midweek as a consequence & so far, things are looking good (that’s put the mokkers on it!!)

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