Free Daily Post: 20/03/18 (complete)

quiet day again…

Nothing again from me today.

I need to crack on with my Festival Review. Plenty to ponder and take-away for the future.

You can read an independent review of my Festival Week, over at Racing-Index, HERE>>>

Unbeknown to me, Steve, whose site it is, joined up as a member. It’s a good read! 🙂

*

GL with any bets today,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. GOLF BETS not a fan of match play so avoiding the Dell tournament
    Scott Piercy 1 point ew 20/1 1/5 7 CO plenty of 20/1 but with different terms
    He is a outstanding talent and has had success in the tropics in the past and with most of the top players playing in the Dell match play he can win here
    Jim Furyk 1 point ew 20/1 1/5 7 CO PP BFSB plenty of 20/1 but with different terms
    Had plenty of success with one evergreen player Phil Mickleson this year and i can see Jim going close in this
    Top Rated Player
    Scott Piercy 1 point ew 20/1 1/5 7 CO plenty of 20/1 but with different terms

    1. Thanks Colin. So should we be backing Scott twice? Also I presume the rest of the bookies will be priced up shortly is it worth holding out until than given some of the usual suspects not priced up. (eg Sky who normally pay one of the higher amount of places)

      1. Nick
        Yes back Scott twice for recording top rated player separate from main account bets,did not use to back them till this year because of their price but once again the results are outstanding
        Jan + 11.5 points
        Feb – 4.8
        Mar + 4.3
        Total + 11 points from only 11 bets and have collected from 6 bets only one winner at 10/1 however do fancy Scott very strongly and at 20/1 for me is outstanding value.
        Thank you for your hard work and putting your bets up for us to back
        Cheers
        Colin

        1. Not a problem just hope I can keep it going on the flat. Given my limited choice of bookies would you take the 20/1 5p 1/4 or wait and hope someone else goes 20/1 7-8 places since can only get 16/1 with 7p?

          1. Have the same problem with the bookies,worth waiting for i put the bets out on tuesday and Racing Post put their scatter gun approach on wednesday and they can affect the market,anyone reading you must put your bets on today for if they select Scott or Jim their price will shorten.

          1. Ben
            you are probably right missed cut but yes i will be very surprised if he does not finish in the first seven and as long as Furyk’s shoulder holds up he will not be far away.
            Fingers and toes crossed

    2. Hi Colin, pre tournament I will take you on with Paul Casey at 22/1 and Matt Fitzpatrick at 100/1. Both good match play players. I do not get involved to any real extent until the end of the third round or in match play the quarter finals, but will have a play on these two now at the prices each way. Good luck.

  2. Thanks Martin,
    You have got me back on track as you know
    I specialise in south American Soccer and last night I fancies Universidad Catolica
    at home to Emelec.

    I took your advice on board and weigh up the bets and in The recent past would have put them in a
    multiple or gone on the wrong market

    but after your e-mail I looked at all the markets and the overriding feeling was that Emelec
    couldn’t go to 2800 meters after a copa Libertadores match just 4 days earlier and win

    so 6/4 Universidad draw no bet looked massive value I considered going in big
    but again the disciplined approach looked the way to go so I have set £50 as the fixed stake

    keeping it small to not let emotion cloud the issue at this stage
    2-0 was a great result but it was the new mind set that pleased me.

    Thanks for the kick up the bum I needed I was impressed that you spend so much time
    on research.

    for any potential bettors the advice from guys who have time to do the spadework is
    worth noting

    cheers
    Pete

    1. Hi,

      football betting is definitely something where you look for long term profit in a season and so singles are OK. We also have the world cup coming up which is a solid betting medium as we can get a few upsets early and then it settles down and the cream rises to the top.

      In terms of the markets I play, you can only do so much even if you have the hours to do it in. I bet in the Premier League and The Championship and La Liga mostly. I play the European tournaments midweek as well. I occasionally dabble in others but not seriously.
      I back match results but not the draw and also back under or over 2.5 goals. I also dabble on the Asian Handicaps if there is value? I do trade out of matches in play as well for a profit if I am watching it live but it takes up too much time to do it on a regular basis.

  3. Mark,
    Read your post yesterday and it looks sound logic.

    What leagues do you play on?
    and why do you play them?
    Thanks
    Pete

    1. In terms of why, you can only specialise re knowledge and research on so much and so the mediums I have picked (The Premier League, The Championship and La Liga) have strong markets and lots of data available and you can get bets on in a fluid market. I know some who do lower divisions or non league or Scottish but the bookies/exchanges are wary of this and so it is difficult to get a reasonable bet on such matches.

      1. Thanks Martin,
        It seems like in any business hard work pays.

        Taking advice certainly helps
        appreciate your insight.
        Pete

    2. English Premiership and Championship, German Bundesliga and Swedish Allsvenskan are the leagues for me, Personally it is around 70% tennis, 20% football and 10% cricket, Football is purely betting but the majority of tennis and cricket is trading

  4. With the flat season fast approaching.
    Money can be made off the Aiden O’Brien stable.

    Aiden regularly changes his mo at the start of the Season
    but punters don’t.
    Several seasons he has been easy early doors and he has had
    multiple odds on chances turned over.

    I always check his horses in the first month of the season
    if in the first two weeks he has several older horses running well below
    their Racing post rating then I some seasons the stable hasn’t got them 100%
    fto.

    I like the older horses as the youngster can be so far ahead in class they still win
    but if I see a five year old when his stable is in this mode and last year the horse also
    got beaten fto at a short price.

    then it opens up the door for backing a fit horse against it
    it will be interesting to keep an eye on Joseph string as well to see if there is any pattern there

    O’Brien odds on shot March April are worth looking at
    if a bunch of his string have got beaten at short prices.

    what is crazy he may have a half dozen odds on shots beaten
    but another will come along and the punters still steam in

    The first two weeks are a watching brief but can it can be quite lucrative
    as punters assume that Aidens horses with the best form are certainties

    1. O’Brien is a big game player and should be followed when going for the top races but not necessarily his number one in the race. I think there is value on backing his runners in such races but not his perceived first choice. I agree his horses go off too short in ordinary races and they usually need a run anyway.

      Unrelated, The Lincoln is on Saturday. Does Lord Glitters outclass them if he runs?

      1. As ever, it really depends on the Going & that’s looking like it will be soft at best. Lord G does have form on this type of ground, but if I had to have an antepost bet – and I’m glad to say I don’t! – then I would probably go for Fire Brigade although I would prefer to see Spencer on him rather than Moore.

      2. 2nd in the Ben Marshall
        won the balmoral
        and 2nd in the totescoop6 at Newmarket suggest he is progressive

        A horse fully matures at 5 so I expect more this year if he is mentally still interested
        O’Mera must be thinking of group races this year for him but if he thinks he is handicapped to win
        and is spot on will take his chance.

        no point in running this type of horse in an early season cavalry charge
        if he isn’t spot on as it could ruin him for the rest of the season

      3. Well those carrying more than 9st5lbs are 1/51 so would be a bit of a trends buster so would personally want a double figure price but I won’t even consider the race until I know where the pace is so definitely staying clear until the day.

  5. The 2nd race at Clonmel was a bit strange.
    I Backed Shimmers rock e/w at 13/2(backed down to 4/1) so was happy with the result
    but it looked as if the others wanted him to win as well.
    Elliott horse went off 2nd favourite and although he had 34 days rest and had form on the going
    and c/d was tailed off.

    the favourite was cruising coming to the last but for some bizarre reasoning Danny Mullins
    let Shimmers rock go 3 lengths clear without riding the horse
    and then was playing catch up all the way to the line.
    I am not screaming through my pocket as I won but if anyone watched the race or watches the replay
    I Would be interested in your comments

    on a different subject I have been watching the fortunes of a couple of French apprentices
    M Micheal and C Pacult both have decent claims and looking at them riding they look like pros

    They have ridden loads of winners and I think they are worth keeping a eye out for
    when the flat season starts in earnest

    Trainers are using them on claimers and handicappers where horses have lost their form
    hoping a 7-10lb weight allowance will see a revival
    looking at them they are usually tailed off even with less weight

    I have looked at their results and horses that were out of the first 5 in their last two races
    even with these two top lads on have run abysmally.

    More and more trainers are using them so if you see a horse with
    either of these two up who has a live recent form chance worth a pound or two
    as their claims are worth it against pros

  6. I am looking at Jockeys who give their mounts terrible rides.

    Davy Russell holds the worst ride of the season so far in my book
    on Petit Mouchoir in the Arkle taking on a confirmed front runner
    and getting involved in a duel at break neck pace gave the horse no chance of winning

    To finish third was a great effort from the horse, Saint Calvados
    the other horse in the duel was tailed off.

    Footpad won easily and Petit Mouchoir was a long way a long way behind
    but I have a feeling if they meet again soon as long as the crazy ride Russell
    gave him hasn’t bottomed him then it will be very close between them
    as PM jumped very well at Cheltenham(best round he has put in so far)

    If anyone has a worse ride to report please give your opinion
    but in my book Russells effort takes the biscuit
    Ryan Moores effort on Order of St George in the Ascot Gold Cup
    was in my book the worst grade 1 riding performance
    for many a year but then I did have a decent bet on him so may be bias
    but backed Footpad so not talking through my pocket on that one

  7. I was wondering if anyone knows how find out the track record in recent years of horses going from Cheltenhamn festival to aintree the following mth ..I was reading somewhere that following the first 3 in each Cheltenham race the next time they run either at aintree or elsewhere can pay dividends

    1. hi there, i’ll be doing some work on that in the next couple of weeks and will post up, don’t have the research to hand at the moment – well, I haven’t done it! There will be some caution this year as the meeting was run on heavy/soft, which it rarely is. Only time will tell if that means the form is repeated or turned on its head. I suspect there will be many a Festival horse that floundered in the slow pace/mud, that may bounce back to life at Aintree/Punchestown.

  8. That will be very interesting data to see, especially if it can be quantified further between The Mildmay Course and The National Course.

    Cheltenham is invariably run on Good or Good to Soft often watered Going, so as Josh says, impact of Heavy Going will be huge factor this year. Aintree is often run on Good ground so if it is heavier there again a huge factor. I am 99% certain that in the 2016 renewal every race winner had course and distance form at Aintree; it is a unique venue.

    As good as the National Course is, even if neutered from what it was; I actually dislike The Mildmay Course probably more than any other NH Track; with the exception possibly of Ascot, but at Ascot it is the people running it, rather than the Course that irk so much.

    The Mildmay Course is very tight, almost the NH equivalent of Chester, and I feel too often good horses; some great horses are run there too soon after Cheltenham, many have been hurt as a result; some have died and may be due to being asked to go again so soon after Cheltenham. You also see fewer Irish Cheltenham horses as they wait for Punchestown. The problem with The Mildmay Course is they go “so bloody fast” pace is vital and many are simply run off their feet out of their comfort zone.

    I suppose a classic example is Brian Ellison who declared “Definitely Red will not run in the National as he had a hard race at Cheltenham” ; yet he declares him to run at Aintree over a shorther trip???, surely IF he is tired/fatigued he should NOT be running at all; and isn’t it logical to think that running over shorter, will mean he has to run a yard faster, and if he is physically and mentally “over the top” isn’t that going to make it more, not less likely to expose him to injury?? The horse deserves a rest, sadly the Trainer seems too short sighted to see it, or to tell the Owner to exercise some common sense.

    I will be looking at Course form at Aintree and similar flat “Park type tracks” / horses clearly aimed at the meeting / and if Cheltenham form is to be considered may be worth looking closely in the form lines for the dreaded “P!!!” as if horses were Pulled Up and not given a hard race P could quickly transform to Profit!

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